It was a pleasure to welcome Kris Kumar, CIO of Goose Hollow Capital, to the Alpha Exchange. Our conversation starts with Fed policy and the manner in which the 500bps of policy tightening is impacting the economy. To this, Kris argues that the propitious starting position for households and corporates in this cycle has been quite different than in previous ones, thus blunting the impact of rate hikes. He points as well to loose fiscal policy with the unemployment rate so low. For Kris, what happens next depends more on fiscal than monetary side.

We next consider the backdrop for valuations, starting with fixed income. Kris sees safety that comes from a coupon on 2’s that approaches 5%, noting that there are positive real yields generally in most of the world.  From an earnings yield perspective, however, US equities have zero premium to bond yields and Kris points to the concentration of earnings growth coming from the top of the SPX, which, in turn, is a bet on generative AI.  Should this growth not materialize, the lofty multiples currently awarded these stocks could be re-rated.

Within equities, Kris makes the argument that we’ve invested a lot in bits but not in atoms and, going forward, investment dollars may move away from tech into areas associated with energy demand. How else to satisfy all of the incremental power to run all of the data centers built?

We finish the discussion with an assessment of the price of vol. Kris points to the epically low implied correlation on the SPX, a result of the bifurcated market in which a small but valuable subset of the index is a bet on AI. He sees scope for the still elevated level of rate vol to come down but upside in vol on commodities like copper as a function of all the spending on infrastructure that will ultimately come as a function of the AI boom.

I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Kris Kumar.