xlr8harder writes:

In general I don’t think an uploaded mind is you, but rather a copy. But one thought experiment makes me question this. A Ship of Theseus concept where individual neurons are replaced one at a time with a nanotechnological functional equivalent.

Are you still you?

Presumably the question xlr8harder cares about here isn't semantic question of how linguistic communities use the word "you", or predictions about how whole-brain emulation tech might change the way we use pronouns.

Rather, I assume xlr8harder cares about more substantive questions like:

1. If I expect to be uploaded tomorrow, should I care about the upload in the same ways (and to the same degree) that I care about my future biological self?
2. Should I anticipate experiencing what my upload experiences?
3. If the scanning and uploading process requires destroying my biological brain, should I say yes to the procedure?

My answers:

1. The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
   
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   First published:
   April 17th, 2024
   
   Source:
   https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPM5r3RjossttDrpw/when-is-a-mind-me
   
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I haven't shared this post with other relevant parties – my experience has been that private discussion of this sort of thing is more paralyzing than helpful. I might change my mind in the resulting discussion, but, I prefer that discussion to be public.



I think 80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from its job board, and similar EA job placement services should do the same.

(I personally believe 80k shouldn't advertise Anthropic jobs either, but I think the case for that is somewhat less clear)

I think OpenAI has demonstrated a level of manipulativeness, recklessness, and failure to prioritize meaningful existential safety work, that makes me think EA orgs should not be going out of their way to give them free resources. (It might make sense for some individuals to work there, but this shouldn't be a thing 80k or other orgs are systematically funneling talent into)

There [...]

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First published:
July 3rd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8qCwuE8GjrYPSqbri/80-000-hours-should-remove-openai-from-the-job-board-and

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This is a linkpost for https://www.bhauth.com/blog/biology/cancer%20vaccines.html cancer neoantigens

For cells to become cancerous, they must have mutations that cause uncontrolled replication and mutations that prevent that uncontrolled replication from causing apoptosis. Because cancer requires several mutations, it often begins with damage to mutation-preventing mechanisms. As such, cancers often have many mutations not required for their growth, which often cause changes to structure of some surface proteins.

The modified surface proteins of cancer cells are called "neoantigens". An approach to cancer treatment that's currently being researched is to identify some specific neoantigens of a patient's cancer, and create a personalized vaccine to cause their immune system to recognize them. Such vaccines would use either mRNA or synthetic long peptides. The steps required are as follows:

1. The cancer must develop neoantigens that are sufficiently distinct from human surface proteins and consistent across the cancer.
2. Cancer cells must [...]

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First published:
May 5th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xgrvmaLFvkFr4hKjz/introduction-to-cancer-vaccines

Linkpost URL:
https://www.bhauth.com/blog/biology/cancer vaccines.html

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I

Imagine an alternate version of the Effective Altruism movement, whose early influences came from socialist intellectual communities such as the Fabian Society, as opposed to the rationalist diaspora. Let's name this hypothetical movement the Effective Samaritans.

Like the EA movement of today, they believe in doing as much good as possible, whatever this means. They began by evaluating existing charities, reading every RCT to find the very best ways of helping.

But many effective samaritans were starting to wonder. Is this randomista approach really the most prudent? After all, Scandinavia didn’t become wealthy and equitable through marginal charity. Societal transformation comes from uprooting oppressive power structures.

The Scandinavian societal model which lifted the working class, brought weekends, universal suffrage, maternity leave, education, and universal healthcare can be traced back all the way to 1870's where the union and social democratic movements got their start.

In many developing countries [...]

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
April 22nd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sKKxuqca9uhpFSvgq/priors-and-prejudice

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About a year ago I decided to try using one of those apps where you tie your goals to some kind of financial penalty. The specific one I tried is Forfeit, which I liked the look of because it's relatively simple, you set single tasks which you have to verify you have completed with a photo.

I’m generally pretty sceptical of productivity systems, tools for thought, mindset shifts, life hacks and so on. But this one I have found to be really shockingly effective, it has been about the biggest positive change to my life that I can remember. I feel like the category of things which benefit from careful planning and execution over time has completely opened up to me, whereas previously things like this would be largely down to the luck of being in the right mood for long enough.

It's too soon to tell whether [...]

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
April 15th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DRrAMiekmqwDjnzS5/my-experience-using-financial-commitments-to-overcome

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An NII machine in Nogales, AZ. (Image source)There's bound to be a lot of discussion of the Biden-Trump presidential debates last night, but I want to skip all the political prognostication and talk about the real issue: fentanyl-detecting machines.

Joe Biden says:

And I wanted to make sure we use the machinery that can detect fentanyl, these big machines that roll over everything that comes across the border, and it costs a lot of money. That was part of this deal we put together, this bipartisan deal.

More fentanyl machines, were able to detect drugs, more numbers of agents, more numbers of all the people at the border. And when we had that deal done, he went – he called his Republican colleagues said don’t do it. It's going to hurt me politically.

He never argued. It's not a good bill. It's a really good bill. We need [...]

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First published:
June 28th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TzwMfRArgsNscHocX/the-incredible-fentanyl-detecting-machine

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Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.[Thanks to Aryan Bhatt, Ansh Radhakrishnan, Adam Kaufman, Vivek Hebbar, Hanna Gabor, Justis Mills, Aaron Scher, Max Nadeau, Ryan Greenblatt, Peter Barnett, Fabien Roger, and various people at a presentation of these arguments for comments. These ideas aren’t very original to me; many of the examples of threat models are from other people.]

In this post, I want to introduce the concept of a “rogue deployment” and argue that it's interesting to classify possible AI catastrophes based on whether or not they involve a rogue deployment. I’ll also talk about how this division interacts with the structure of a safety case, discuss two important subcategories of rogue deployment, and make a few points about how the different categories I describe here might be caused by different attackers (e.g. the AI itself, rogue lab insiders, external hackers, or [...]

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First published:
June 3rd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ceBpLHJDdCt3xfEok/ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-deployments

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(Cross-posted from my website. Audio version here, or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.)

This is the final essay in a series that I'm calling "Otherness andcontrol in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that the individual essays can beread fairly well on their own, butsee here fora brief summary of the series as a whole. There's also a PDF of the whole series here.

Warning: spoilers for Angels in America; and moderate spoilers forHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.)

"I come into the presence of still water..."

~Wendell Berry

A lot of this series has been about problems with yang—that is,with the active element in the duality of activity vs. receptivity,doing vs. not-doing, controlling vs. letting go.[1] In particular,I've been interested in the ways that "deepatheism"(that is, a fundamental [...]

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Summary Summary .

LLMs may be fundamentally incapable of fully general reasoning, and if so, short timelines are less plausible.

Longer summary

There is ML research suggesting that LLMs fail badly on attempts at general reasoning, such as planning problems, scheduling, and attempts to solve novel visual puzzles. This post provides a brief introduction to that research, and asks:

• Whether this limitation is illusory or actually exists.
• If it exists, whether it will be solved by scaling or is a problem fundamental to LLMs.
• If fundamental, whether it can be overcome by scaffolding & tooling.

If this is a real and fundamental limitation that can't be fully overcome by scaffolding, we should be skeptical of arguments like Leopold Aschenbrenner's (in his recent 'Situational Awareness') that we can just 'follow straight lines on graphs' and expect AGI in the next few years.

Introduction Introduction .

Leopold Aschenbrenner's [...]

The original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 24th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k38sJNLk7YbJA72ST/llm-generality-is-a-timeline-crux

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. Short Summary

LLMs may be fundamentally incapable of fully general reasoning, and if so, short timelines are less plausible.

Longer summary

There is ML research suggesting that LLMs fail badly on attempts at general reasoning, such as planning problems, scheduling, and attempts to solve novel visual puzzles. This post provides a brief introduction to that research, and asks:

• Whether this limitation is illusory or actually exists.
• If it exists, whether it will be solved by scaling or is a problem fundamental to LLMs.
• If fundamental, whether it can be overcome by scaffolding & tooling.

If this is a real and fundamental limitation that can't be fully overcome by scaffolding, we should be skeptical of arguments like Leopold Aschenbrenner's (in his recent 'Situational Awareness') that we can just 'follow straight lines on graphs' and expect AGI in [...]

The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 24th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k38sJNLk7YbJA72ST/llm-generality-is-a-timeline-crux

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.