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Recently, the yen-dollar exchange rate hit a 34-year low. Why is that?
6-month US Treasuries are paying around 5.3% interest. Japanese government bonds are paying about 0%. That being the case, you can borrow yen, trade it for dollars, buy US bonds, and get more interest. That's called a "yen carry trade". The risk you take in exchange for that money is that the exchange rate will shift so that a dollar is worth less yen.
But of course, it's also possible that the exchange rate will shift in the other direction, and that's what's happened recently. From 2020 to now, $1 went from 105 to 150 yen.
That being the case, I'd normally expect inflation to be higher in Japan than the US - their currency became less valuable, which makes imports more expensive. Yet, that's not what happened; inflation [...]
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Outline:
(01:58) Question 1: Why would an hour of labor from an American be worth 2x as much as an hour from a Japanese employee?
(02:37) Question 2: Why do Japanese automakers operate some factories in America instead of importing everything from Japan?
(03:25) Question 3: Why can the Japanese government keep borrowing money with no interest?
(03:59) Question 4: If dollars are overvalued, why does America have any exports?
(05:31) Question 5: If American labor is expensive, whats it doing?
(06:50) Question 6: Why do people want dollars if theyre overpriced?
(08:16) Question 7: Is that actually a problem?
(09:54) Question 8: Why dont Japanese invest domestically?
(14:24) Question 9: Why dont foreign companies outcompete in Japan?
(15:03) Question 10: What could be done about these issues?
(16:15) Question 11: What if youre an American who wants to make stuff?
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First published:
Source:
Linkpost URL:
https://www.bhauth.com/blog/economics/yen.html
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
By LessWrongRecently, the yen-dollar exchange rate hit a 34-year low. Why is that?
6-month US Treasuries are paying around 5.3% interest. Japanese government bonds are paying about 0%. That being the case, you can borrow yen, trade it for dollars, buy US bonds, and get more interest. That's called a "yen carry trade". The risk you take in exchange for that money is that the exchange rate will shift so that a dollar is worth less yen.
But of course, it's also possible that the exchange rate will shift in the other direction, and that's what's happened recently. From 2020 to now, $1 went from 105 to 150 yen.
That being the case, I'd normally expect inflation to be higher in Japan than the US - their currency became less valuable, which makes imports more expensive. Yet, that's not what happened; inflation [...]
---
Outline:
(01:58) Question 1: Why would an hour of labor from an American be worth 2x as much as an hour from a Japanese employee?
(02:37) Question 2: Why do Japanese automakers operate some factories in America instead of importing everything from Japan?
(03:25) Question 3: Why can the Japanese government keep borrowing money with no interest?
(03:59) Question 4: If dollars are overvalued, why does America have any exports?
(05:31) Question 5: If American labor is expensive, whats it doing?
(06:50) Question 6: Why do people want dollars if theyre overpriced?
(08:16) Question 7: Is that actually a problem?
(09:54) Question 8: Why dont Japanese invest domestically?
(14:24) Question 9: Why dont foreign companies outcompete in Japan?
(15:03) Question 10: What could be done about these issues?
(16:15) Question 11: What if youre an American who wants to make stuff?
---
First published:
Source:
Linkpost URL:
https://www.bhauth.com/blog/economics/yen.html
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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