The Good Judgement Project got some superforecasters to retrocast whether COVID started via zoonotic spillover or a lab leak. They in aggregate gave a 75% chance of zoonosis, but there was a range of views. GJP's executive summary is at the end of this linkpost.

Here is a link to the summary of the report on their substack, and here is a link to the full report (which is a total of 6 pages of content).

h/t John Halstead for drawing my attention to this.

Superforecasters assess that natural zoonosis is three times more likely to be the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic than either a biomedical research-related accident or some other process or mechanism. Asked to assign a probability to what caused the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in human populations, more than 50 Superforecasters engaged in extensive online discussions starting on December 1, 2023.

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First published:

Source:

Linkpost URL:
https://goodjudgment.substack.com/p/superforecasting-the-origins-of-the

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.