So this post is an argument that multi-decade timelines are reasonable, and the key cruxes that Ege Erdil has with most AI safety people who believe in short timelines are due to the following set of beliefs:

1. Ege Erdil don't believe that trends exist that require AI to automate everything in only 2-3 years.
2. Ege Erdil doesn't believe that the software-only singularity is likely to happen, and this is perhaps the most important crux he has with AI people like @Daniel Kokotajlo who believe that a software-only singularity is likely.
3. Ege Erdil expects Moravec's paradox to bite hard once AI agents are made in a big way.

This is a pretty important crux, because if this is true, a lot more serial research agendas like Infra-Bayes research, Natural Abstractions work, and human intelligence augmentation can work more often, and also it means that political [...]

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https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-case-for-multi-decade-ai-timelines

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