The onslaught of Tweets regularly lobbed at Fed Chairman Powell assumes at least some part of the mosaic of today’s unique and vibrant risk climate.  But is Trump much different from previous Fed Chairs?  In “The Myth of Independence”, Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel provide an important account of the political history of the Fed.  And in this episode of the Alpha Exchange, it was a pleasure to have Mark, the Founder and CIO of Potomac River Capital, share his expert views on this subject as well as the macro environment in which Central Banks operate today.  Our conversation considers historical market stress events including the square off between Soros and the BoE, the Fed’s surprise tightening in 1994 and, of course the Great Financial Crisis.

Mark also provides valuable perspective on the early days of the Fed, from its post-panic creation in 1912 through the onset of WWI, the high inflation volatility of the 1920’s, and then of course the 1929 crash and Great Depression.  Our conversation helps frame the chronology of how the Fed got to where it is today and the politics that inevitably influenced this path.

We wrap up the discussion with Mark’s survey of today’s growth, inflation and asset price outlook.  His assessment of inflation shortfall and the risks of Japanification, lead him to the conclusion that the Fed must be vigilant and that Central Bank coordination with the fiscal arm is a theme that will likely be subject to growing consideration.

Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my discussion with Mark Spindel.