Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said:

"How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?"

It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented levels of overvaluation followed by a precipitous price correction. The Nasdaq didn't return to its 2000 highs until 15 years later.

Many are feeling like it's deja vu all over again with the latest run-up in the small number of stocks, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7, driving the market indices to new record highs.

Are we in a new era of irrational exuberance, this time driven by the promise of artificial intelligence? 

And if so, what's the danger this time of another prolonged contraction ensuing?

Contact David at https://evergreengavekal.com/meet-david-hay/

Or subscribe to his Substack at https://haymaker.substack.com/


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection 

Markets Are In A "Speculative Blowoff", But When Will It End? | David Hay

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Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week.

US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues...

So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder.

Is that likely?

In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action.

Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice

Tom McClellan: These Decades-Long Correlations All Predict A Major Market Sell-Off Later This Year

It's been a week to remember for stocks...

After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value.

The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon.

We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap.

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#nvidia #jobs #stockmarket

Extended, Overbought Market Likely To "Cool Its Heels" Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report.

It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is.

This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was just issued last week -- all 400+ pages of it. To learn its highlights, we're fortunate to speak today with one of its co-authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner & Fund Manager at Incrementum AG.

Ronnie calculates that the bull market in gold is still in the early "Accumulation" phase. That will be followed by the "Public Participation" and "Distribution" phases.

Before the bull run is over, Ronnie sees gold being substantially re-priced higher.

Access the new 400+ page In Gold We Trust report, for free, at https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/34291/?lang=en


SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#gold #goldprice #preciousmetals

Bull Market In Gold Still In Early Innings | Ronnie Stoeferle

After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.
Nope.
The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P;, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.
Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now. 
But...there are headwinds, too.
Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?
For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth.
Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.


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#interestrates #ratecuts #investing 

Wait...Interest Rates Cuts Will Be MORE Restrictive Than Hikes? | Cameron Dawson

While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work.

These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point where 1 in 6 prime working age men has no paid work at all. 

What is causing this?

And what can be done about it?

Because when an increasing percentage of your prime working age population stops contributing to economic productivity, not only do they suffer the consequences of diminished prosperity -- we all do.

For a deep dive into this pressing crisis, we're fortunate to speak today with Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the book Men Without Work.

Get Nicholas' book here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Americas-Invisible/dp/1599474697

Follow Nicholas at https://aei.org/


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#unemployment #jobs #depression 

Markets Are In A "Speculative Blowoff", But When Will It End? | David Hay

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