Midrats

In a news cycle dominated by the attempted assassination of former President Trump, give yourself a break with an update on the Russian military in year three of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with regular Midrats guest Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg.

Dmitry Gorenburg is Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.
 
Takeaways

• The Russo-Ukrainian War has been ongoing for three years, with Russia's goals evolving over time.
• Both Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in offensives, but significant territorial gains have become increasingly difficult.
• The war has had a significant impact on the demographics of the fighting forces, particularly in rural and poorer areas.
• Electronic warfare plays a crucial role in the conflict, with both sides adapting and evolving their tactics.
• Russia's defense industry faces challenges in terms of production and sourcing components, but they have found alternative ways to maintain supplies.
• The Russian economy has shifted to a war economy, with a focus on defense spending and investment.
• The labor shortage in Russia poses a challenge for the long-term sustainability of their defense industry and economy. China's relationship with Russia is driven by a significant coincidence of interests, particularly in weakening the United States and its alliance with Europe.
• The war in Ukraine is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with both sides believing they are inching closer to victory.
• The resolution of the conflict will require negotiation and potential concessions from both sides, but the outcome is uncertain.
• The relationship between Russia and the West is unlikely to return to the pre-war era, and a new normal will have to be established.
• The role of China in supporting Russia and the impact of Western assistance on Ukraine are critical factors to watch in the coming months.

Chapters00:00 - The Evolving Goals of the Russo-Ukrainian War
07:50 - Winter Offensives and Stalemate
11:46 - Long-Range Strikes and Demoralization
17:14 - Demographics and Impact on Rural Areas
20:03 - The Role of Electronic Warfare
24:58 - Challenges in Russia's Defense Industry
29:49 - The Shift to a War Economy
31:25 - Labor Shortage and Inflation
32:54 - The Russia-China Partnership
37:32 - The Existential Threat to Russia
44:50- - Russian Sabotages and Assassination Efforts
48:02 - The Battle in Central Europe and Western Europe
52:18 - The Stalemate in Ukraine and Potential Solutions
56:30 - The Role of China and Western Assistance
01:00:08 - Key Factors to Watch

Law. Ethics. Morality. Character.

What do these words mean, and why are they important in the profession of arms. That is the subject of this week’s Midrats.

We have just the right person to dig in to this topic, returning to Midrats, Dr. Pauline Shanks-Kaurin.

Professor Shanks-Kaurin is the Admiral James B. Stockdale Chair in Professional Military Ethics at the Naval War College. She holds a Ph.D. in philosophy from Temple University and specializes in military ethics, “just war theory” and philosophy of law and applied ethics. She is author of “On Obedience: Contrasting Philosophies for Military, Community and Citizenry” and “Achilles Goes Asymmetrical: The Warrior, Military Ethics and Contemporary Warfare.” She served as a contributor for The Strategy Bridge and has published in War on the Rocks, Real Clear Defense, The Wavell Room, Grounded Curiosity, Newsweek and Just Security.

Showlinks:

• Reviewing The Character Gap: 2021 review at The Strategy Bridge of, The Character Gap: How Good Are We?, by Christian B. Miller.
• The Smartest Guys in the Room.
• Ethics: Starting at the Beginning: 2018 article in The Wavell Room.
• High Noon.
• The Cruel Sea.
• Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam
• Fat Leonard: How One Man Bribed, Bilked, and Seduced the U.S. Navy
• With the Old Breed
• My Helmet for a Pillow

Anyone even remotely around the Navy or the national defense area in DC and the Pacific knows this two words, “Fat Leonard” and the unprecedented impact it has had on the navy as an institution and its very highest uniformed leadership for well over a decade.
 
Visiting the topic on Midrats for the full hour will be Craig Whitlock, investigative reporter for The Washington Post. #1 NYT Bestselling author of "Fat Leonard: How One Man Bribed, Bilked, and Seduced the U.S. Navy" (2024) and "The Afghanistan Papers: A Secret History of the War" (2021).

Hope you enjoy the new audio quality for this month's melee!

We kick things off with an overview of the Gaza Pier debacle, the Eisenhower deployment extension, the Constellation Class frigate purgatory, the potential fun with the #AsianNATO, and finish things up with a former VCNO who is not in a happy place.

Showlinks:

• Better Tabletop Exercises for Wartime Acquisition By Ron Weinberger
• Army JLOTS v. Navy ELCAS
• You Go to War with the Industrial Base You Have, by Mackenzie Eaglen
• "Just as PLA is clearly communicating its threats to the world, it's also communicating its insecurities." - Zach Ota
• Admiral Paparo shows the correct attitude at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
• Former VCNO not having a good week

Midrats returns for a broad-reaching discussion on maritime and national security issues from the Gaza Beaches to the South China Sea!

My audio was a bit poppy early in the show, but it gets better.

Mentioned links:

• PRC is playing games with undersea cables
• CONGRESSIONAL GUIDANCE FOR A NATIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY Reversing the Decline of America’s Maritime Power
• When US Army tried to deactivate the unit that built the Gaza pier
• SECNAV has a testy time on The Hill
• Azeri percentage of Iranian population
• CFR report on the challenge of the PRC invading Taiwan
• PRC's Drone Carrier

Just as they share a common tradition going back to before the American Revolution, the United State's Navy and Britain's Royal Navy, today both nations' navies share a similar challenge of prioritizing and finding the navy - and the industrial base to support it - that both nations need in order to secure their nation's from global threats and challengers.

We'll cover both nations' military industrial base, the latest lrelated essons from the Red Sea, AUKUS, and even a funny little moment in the series, "3 Body Problem."

Coming back to Midrats for a long ranging discussion will be Dr. Emma Salisbury, Phd.

Emma recently completed her PhD at Birkbeck College, University of London, with research focusing on the history of the U.S. military-industrial complex. She is an associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy, an associate fellow at the UK Ministry of Defence's Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre, and an assistant editor at War on the Rocks.

For the first two decades of this century, as the West and her friends were distracted by small wars in Central Asia and the Middle East, the People's Republic of China slowly, deliberately, and steadily grew her economic, diplomatic, and economic power.

As we are in the last year closing out the first quarter of the 21st Century, the West distracted by an ongoing major conventional war in its third year in Europe, and still cannot extract itself from the Middle Eastern tar-pit. Haw is the PRC doing? Keeping on, moving on...and it's time for an update on their progress.

Returning to Midrats for the full hour will be Dean Cheng, Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Senior Adviser, United States Institute of Peace; and Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.Dean was recently appointed a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, a Senior Adviser with the US Institute of Peace, and a non-resident fellow with the George Washington University Space Policy Institute.

He retired as the Senior Research Fellow for Chinese Political and Military Affairs at the Heritage Foundation after 13 years. He is fluent in Chinese, and uses Chinese language materials regularly in his work.Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he worked at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a Federally Funded Research and Development Center, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and as an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment.

He is the author of the volume Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (Praeger Publishing, 2016), and has written extensively on Chinese views of deterrence, Chinese views of space power, and Chinese mobilization, and contributed to a number of volumes on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

For navalists from Souda Bay to San Diego, April has started not with a whimper, not a grin - but with a scream.

For the full hour, we'll start in Baltimore, review the latest revelations about shipbuilding, and some enlightening developments on our allies from Australia to NATO…and end things up after a little spot of tech bother, with a discussion on how to tell our Navy story right - and why it matters.

Links:

• The shipbuilding grid.
• CANX ship brief.
• AUKUS and Japan.
• US, Japan, Australia, & The Philippines go to sea.

For our last podcast of March, come join us for and open-ended free-for-all format to look at the national security environment as we head in to April.

From the water cannons off the Philippines to the folly of keeping your naval bases in range of your enemies missiles ... and perhaps a dive in to the long winter for navalists that 2024 is lining up to be ... we'll cover it!

Links mentioned in the show:

• Amphib USS Boxer Sidelined by "General Complacency" and Breakdowns
• The Lost Opportunity: The Failure of the National Commission on the Future of the Navy
• Sal Mercogliano's What's Going on With Shipping
• Why Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Are Likely to Persist: They're Popular
• Claude Berube books

If people are policy and policy shapes decisions, then that is the start in understanding why a nation like the USA wound up neglecting what should be a core sector of not just its economy, but its strategic advantage - its civilian maritime industry.

Using his recent article, The Urgent Need for U.S. Maritime Reform as a starting point, our guest for the full hour is William Cahill.

Will is president of Applied Maritime Sciences, a maritime technology and strategy consultancy. He served as Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council and Maritime Advisor on the Council of Economic Advisers where he helped develop and lead Interagency efforts to enhance American maritime competitiveness. During his 20 years as a Coast Guard officer, Will completed numerous operational tours both at sea as a Cutterman and at air stations as a Coast Guard aviator. Will holds degrees in Naval Architecture and Marine engineering from the USCGA and a Master of Public Policy from Princeton University.