More or Less

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries.

The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US.

However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up.

Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?

In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.

Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches.

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up?

A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on.

The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.

And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us.

Presenter: Tim Harford

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?

Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?

One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.

It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.

But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life.

Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it.

On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us?

Presenter: Tim Harford

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations.

If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa.

Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority.

However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence.

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?

Presenter: Tim Harford

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?

Presenter: Tim Harford