More or Less

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?

That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.

Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.

Presenter: Tim Harford

The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?

The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?

Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?

And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.

Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.

Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.

In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.

Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.

We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford

The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall.

But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?

We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

Presenter: Kate Lamble

The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum.

But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.

Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what.

Presenter: Kate Lamble