Adobe Chief Strategy Officer Scott Belsky joins the Morins and the Lessins as the Fifth Wheel for an episode about all things AI. Plus, inside the FTC’s case for breaking up Amazon.

*probably dead, but maybe not

As the news heats up, the couples discuss why recent IPOs tell us little about whether the window is, in fact, open and ponder the future of leadership in Silicon Valley.

Show Notes:

[00:00:10] Startup location rules.

[00:05:30] Silicon Valley regulation debate.

[00:08:18] Younger and hungrier talent.

[00:11:30] Generational transfer in big tech.

[00:14:10] Florida signaling and tax optimization.

[00:18:23] Tech events worth attending.

[00:23:02] Female CEO of Instacart.

[00:25:13] Staying private for too long.

[00:29:27] Small tech equity risks.

[00:32:23] Hiring challenges for startups.

[00:36:49] The role of capital market timing.

[00:38:02] Cost of compliance for going public.

[00:42:05] Power dynamics in public markets.

[00:45:09] Price equals quality.

The couples take you up close and personal with this week’s Apple event and discuss the future of the company, hardware and the garbage product they can’t live without. Plus, Brit schools Sam on pop culture, part 10.

Show Notes:

[00:00:00] New composting trash can?

[00:05:23] Apple event changes.

[00:08:56] Recycling Cobalt and climate impact.

[00:10:46] Apple's first Carbon Neutral Product.

[00:15:27] Camera technology advancements.

[00:19:44] Apple's trajectory after the launch.

[00:22:11] Cambrian moment in computing.

[00:26:25] The value of Apple's closed ecosystem.

[00:29:41] The capital structure of hardware.

[00:31:19] Hardware companies are entreprenuership on expert mode.

[00:35:30] The Mill magical bottomless composting trash can.

[00:37:48] Spatial computing.

[00:41:08] The Insta360 camera.

[00:43:38] World creation through AR.

[00:48:05] Why can't we have a Hardware API?

…but something else will bloom instead. Plus, this is why Europe can't have nice things. And the Cable Cowboy kills cable.

Discussed:

The Hottest Coach in Sports: Coach Prime
How Deel Became Payout Provider for Prop Trading Firms, Including Site Frozen by CFTC

John Malone’s Charter Squeezes Disney at Vulnerable Moment

Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable

The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success

How Taylor Swift Ditched Dealing With Hollywood Studios to Release the ‘Eras Tour’ Film With AMC

Show Notes:

[00:01:59] CU Buffs winning football game.

[00:06:30] Prop trading as Ponzi scheme.

[00:08:30] A hidden Forex trading industry.

[00:10:38] Robo spam being cracked down.

[00:14:08] Subscription business models.

[00:18:31] Europe's impact on app monetization.

[00:22:18] The digital market act.

[00:24:12] Implications for big tech gatekeepers.

[00:29:31] The future of niche apps.

[00:30:01] Subscription services reaching scale.

[00:33:11] How do you make money?

[00:36:28] Rethinking success for consumer businesses.

[00:39:52] Cable subscriptions and user experience.

[00:43:23] The fascination with fax machines.

[00:45:22] Old and new combined.

[00:47:57] Taylor Swift's movie theater success.

[00:50:46] More in-person collective experience.

The Morins and the Lessins break down what is really happening in venture firms right now from liquidating venture stakes to fundraising. Plus, Chinese entrepreneurs’ secret AI confab and Jessica’s notes from Beijing.

Discussed:

Colin Robinson: The Life of an Energy Vampire - What We Do In The Shadows
Chamath Palihapitiya’s Venture Firm Offered to Sell Hundreds of Startup Stakes
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology

Show Notes:

[00:02:30] Energy vampires.

[00:04:33] Otter.ai technology for efficient reporting.

[00:09:00] Recording everything and privacy.

[00:12:41] Is being a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley like being a tenured professor at a University?

[00:15:44] Venture capital feedback cycles and accountability.

[00:18:40] Choosing Jedi or General.

[00:23:01] Fundamental beliefs and investments.

[00:25:11] Zero Fund concept.

[00:29:07] VC leading indicators.

[00:31:27] LPs buying stakes in GPs.

[00:34:51] Mid-flight venture capital strategy changes.

[00:39:02] The future of AI in China.

[00:43:11] Centralized AI ownership in China.

[00:47:38] US entrepreneurs selling beauty products.

[00:50:09] Feedback and podcast rankings.

Back in the Bay Area, the Morins and the Lessins debate the status of startup work culture and how to fix it. Plus, Nvidia’s blowout earnings and the best More or Less product idea yet.

Articles and data discussed:

Salesforce Leads Financing of AI Startup at More Than $4 Billion Valuation

Can San Francisco Save Itself From the Doom Loop?

Show Notes:

[0:00:00] Remote work policies and productivity

As the startup graveyard gets crowded, the Morins and the Lessins talk about when companies should quit and reminisce about failed investments. Plus, a More or Less debate on U.S. China tech policy and evolving views of LLMs.

Articles and books discussed:
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/storage-startup-clutter-running-out-of-cash-sells-itself-at-steep-discount?rc=hwneun
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/yieldstreet-nears-a-deal-to-buy-real-estate-tech-startup-cadre?rc=hwneun
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/venture-capital-firms-struggle-to-raise-funds-in-china?rc=hwneun
https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/B09PVR6YK5/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=quit+annie+duke&qid=1692292549&sr=8-1

Show Notes:

[0:00:00] Introduction - The hosts discuss their health status.

[0:00:23] Venture Capital, Startup Trends, and Choosing When to Quit - The group discusses past startup trends like the "Uber for X" era and how changing market conditions are coming home to roost.

[0:09:09] China and the Digital Trade Imbalance - The group discusses recent executive orders restricting US investment in Chinese companies and ask questions around why we only discuss the trade of atoms and not bits in the digital era.

[0:19:23] TikTok Ban Debate - The hosts debate whether the TikTok app should be banned in the US.

[0:35:00] Vision of American Digital Citizenship - Dave and Sam discuss their vision for expanding American digital identity globally.

[0:44:39] Supply Chain Impacts of COVID - Dave notes the pandemic highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities which influenced how everyone thinks about entrepreneurial risk.

[0:47:09] Large Language Model Perspectives - The hosts share their evolving views of AI, LLMs and regulatory risks.

The Morins and the Lessins devise a playbook on the future of sports media. Plus, a More or Less debate on a new study on Wegovy.

Articles and research discussed:

https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=166301

Show Notes:

0:00 - Introduction: The hosts discuss ESPN's declining subscriber numbers and revenue challenges. They debate whether equity ownership for athletes could help and what innovations ESPN could make.

2:18 - ESPN's issues: The hosts discuss ESPN's high content costs, difficulty being a distributor in a direct-to-consumer world, and how sports rights are priced to perfection.

9:12 - Barstool Sports: The hosts discuss Barstool Sports' acquisition and subsequent return to its founder due to his controversial behavior. They debate whether "crazy" founders luck into windfalls.

16:00 - Solutions for ESPN: The hosts discuss innovations like new formats, storytelling, and interactive experiences. They debate whether betting is the best form of interactivity.

25:00 - Longevity science: The hosts discuss a new study showing a weight loss drug can reduce heart attack risk by 20%. They debate the risks of healthy people taking such drugs.

34:00 - Wrap up: The hosts summarize the major problems discussed and look forward to recording together in person next time.

This week, inspired by Barbie and Taylor Swift, the Morins and the Lessins debate the future of franchises and brands. Plus, the latest in the ecommerce wars and the winners and losers if room-temperature superconductors actually become a thing.

Articles and research discussed:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/shein-makes-an-aggressive-pitch-to-woo-u-s-amazon-sellers
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-tiktok-ceos-plan-to-play-offense

Show Notes:

0:00 Taylor Swift concert and Barbie movie - The hosts discuss the cultural impact of the recent Taylor Swift concert and the Barbie movie.

0:13 Fast fashion brand Shein - The hosts discuss the rise of Chinese fast fashion brand Shein and its impact on Amazon.

0:27 Live shopping - The hosts discuss the trend of live shopping on social media platforms and whether it will take off.

0:38 Superconductors - The hosts discuss recent breakthroughs in room temperature superconductors and the potential impact.

Brought To You By:

⁠⁠⁠The Information⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Slow Ventures⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠Offline Ventures⁠⁠

Are we just playing into Elon's game with Twitter? The Lessins and The Morins debate and take different sides on whether seed investing can survive. Plus, what's Ruth Porat really up to at Google?

Discussed:

Google’s Darkest Days: After Three Deaths, a Workforce Reckons with a Changed Company
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future

Seed Investing Can't Turn Back On

Show Notes:

00:00 - The hosts discuss Elon Musk rebranding Twitter as 'X'. They argue that Elon is doing it mainly to stay in the news cycle and get attention. They joke about how Elon is just like any other internet user, changing DNS records and making mistakes.

06:29 - The hosts discuss Google. They talk about Google's AI strategy, the promotion of Ruth Porat to President, and mental health issues at Google. They debate whether Google has lost its way or is still well positioned.

13:44 - Sam explains his view that 'seed investing is dead'. He argues that the venture capital model has broken down and companies are overvalued and unable to make a profit. Dave and Sam discuss how they prefer investing in 'weird' areas.

20:18 - The hosts debate whether venture capital will fundamentally change or just become a less good business. They agree that while seed investing will still exist, the previous model is over.