In this episode of the FreightWaves Morning Minute, we break down the conflicting economic signals heading into 2026 as plummeting operational costs collide with tightening capacity. ⁠Benchmark diesel falls again as oil market selloff picks up steam⁠, with crude futures dipping below $60 per barrel even as retail pump prices struggle to catch up to the drop.

Capacity pressures are intensifying from factories to fulfillment centers, ⁠as more layoffs hit U.S. supply chain⁠, including over 4,200 recent job cuts at major companies like Ford and Great Dane. These structural reductions highlight a market realignment that goes beyond typical seasonal dips, creating significant capacity constraints across the sector.

New government data reveals that ⁠truck transportation jobs last month were the lowest in years⁠, dropping to levels not seen since June 2021. Despite this decline in employment, the capacity squeeze has pushed the average hourly wage for non-supervisory trucking employees to a record high of $31.40.

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