The European Union is expected to revoke duty-free status for parcel imports through the elimination of the de minimis rule for small parcel imports, which is expected to be fully implemented by 2028. This significant policy change aims to level the playing field for European businesses and limit the influx of low-cost goods, especially considering that 91% of low-value shipments last year originated from China.

We also track how global trade volatility and depressed freight rates have severely impacted ocean carriers, leading to Hapag-Lloyd's nine-month profits dropping nearly 50% from $1.83 billion down to $946 million. This decline occurred despite a 9% rise in transport volumes, demonstrating how upward cost pressures and start-up expenses related to the new Gemini Alliance are squeezing carrier margins.

Finally, we analyze a proposed strategic pivot for UPS to stay competitive in the high-volume e-commerce space, focusing on a retooling of last-mile delivery. This unified strategy suggests using higher-cost Teamster drivers for the middle mile delivery to UPS Stores, allowing lower-cost independent gig workers to handle the final local delivery, which could drastically lower B2C costs and end the company’s reliance on the U.S. Postal Service.

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