In a recent interview, Dario Amodei claimed that cost of training is (starting with models already available)

Right now, $100 million. There are models in training today that are more like a $1 billion. I think if we go to $10 or a $100 billion, and I think that will happen in 2025-2026, maybe 2027, ...

(Epistemic status: Fermi estimates, 8 is approximately 10 which is greater than 9.)

Assuming $40,000 per H100 and associated infrastructure in a datacenter, $1 billion gives 25K H100s, which matches the scale of for example Meta's new training clusters and requires about 40MW of power. At $2 per hour, training time cost of 25K H100s reaches $100 million in 80 days, which seems reasonable if on the short side for a production training run. The cost of time matches $1 billion at 2.3 years. An H100 (SXM) is rated for [...]

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