So this morning I thought to myself, "Okay, now I will actually try to study the LK99 question, instead of betting based on nontechnical priors and market sentiment reckoning."  (My initial entry into the affray, having been driven by people online presenting as confidently YES when the prediction markets were not confidently YES.)  And then I thought to myself, "This LK99 issue seems complicated enough that it'd be worth doing an actual Bayesian calculation on it"--a rare thought; I don't think I've done an actual explicit numerical Bayesian update in at least a year.

In the process of trying to set up an explicit calculation, I realized I felt very unsure about some critically important quantities, to the point where it no longer seemed worth trying to do the calculation with numbers.  This is the System Working As Intended.

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EzSH9698DhBsXAcYY/my-current-lk99-questions

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