This post starts out pretty gloomy but ends up with some points that I feel pretty positive about. Day to day, I'm more focussed on the positive points, but awareness of the negative has been crucial to forming my priorities, so I'm going to start with those. It's mostly addressed to the EA community, but is hopefully somewhat of interest to LessWrong and the Alignment Forum as well.

My main concerns

I think AGI is going to be developed soon, and quickly. Possibly (20%) that's next year, and most likely (80%) before the end of 2029. These are not things you need to believe for yourself in order to understand my view, so no worries if you're not personally convinced of this.

(For what it's worth, I did arrive at this view through years of study and research in AI, combined with over a decade of private forecasting practice [...]

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Outline:

(00:28) My main concerns

(03:41) Extinction by industrial dehumanization

(06:00) Successionism as a driver of industrial dehumanization

(11:08) My theory of change: confronting successionism with human-specific industries

(15:53) How I identified healthcare as the industry most relevant to caring for humans

(20:00) But why not just do safety work with big AI labs or governments?

(23:22) Conclusion

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