Chinese plans for Myanmar could have far reaching consequences in 2025.

Michael Martin, adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., returns to Beyond the Mekong amid speculation that China and Myanmar's military junta are preparing to establish a “joint security company” to protect Beijing’s interests in the war-torn country.

The junta has reportedly formed a committee to prepare an MoU for establishing a security company, which could be dispatched into Rakhine State, where fighting this year has been intense and the U.N. that two million people are facing “the dire prospect of famine."

Rakhine is also the starting point of Beijing’s 771-kilometer oil and gas pipelines, which stretches across the country and are a crucial energy source for the Chinese economy. A joint security company to protect the corridor could include Chinese boots on the ground and the sale of weapons and special equipment.

It’s a strategy with the potential to reshape the military equation after the junta suffered dramatic territorial losses over the past year to anti-regime forces, consisting of ethnic armed organizations, the People’s Defense Force and the National Unity Government in exile.

Martin has spent two decades as a specialist policy advisor on Myanmar alongside China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam. His work includes a 15-year tenure with the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, where he provided political and economic analysis.

He spoke with The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about Chinese intentions for Myanmar and the need to protect its interests in the country, regardless of which side emerges victorious in a bloody civil war that has lasted almost four years and claimed an estimated 50,000 lives.