This week, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged while suggesting that it could cut as soon as September. But there's an ongoing discussion about whether or not the Fed is behind the curve, with some of the most recent data suggesting that the economy is already slowing. On Thursday, for instance, initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in almost a year while the ISM survey showed manufacturing activity shrinking by the most in eight months. So is the Fed making a massive policy error by keeping rates on hold? And does it matter? We bring back Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets to discuss the recent central bank decision, the macro outlook, and the impact of geopolitical uncertainty.

Read More: Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow

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When it comes to chips for artificial intelligence, obviously the name that automatically comes to mind is Nvidia. The company is making a fortune selling semiconductors used for hot AI applications like large language models, and stock investors have rewarded it handsomely for doing so. But of course, Nvidia's GPUs can be used for more than just AI. They're also used for video games, graphics, cryptocurrency mining and more. But a new startup called MatX is aiming to build the ultimate chip just for LLMs. Co-founders Reiner Pope and Mike Gunter spent years at Alphabet, which has its own internal semiconductor operations, and now they've stalked out on their own to create a new chip company from scratch. We talk about how they're going about their job, what it takes to actually design and build a chip, and what it will take to get customers to switch over from the industry leader.

For more episodes on this topic:
Coreweave's CSO on What It Really Takes to Build an AI Datacenter

Inside the Battle for Chips That Will Power Artificial Intelligence

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Vapes like Elf bars seem to be everywhere now. Meanwhile, Zyn nicotine pouches have become a huge seller for Philip Morris and are in such demand that it's sometimes hard to find them in stores. So where are all these new nicotine products coming from? What's the regulatory approval process for these? And what is it like to launch a new nicotine product right now? In this episode, we speak with John Coogan, the former co-founder of dietary supplement Soylent and most recently the co-founder of Lucy Goods, which makes nicotine gum. We talk about the booming market for Zyn and other nicotine products, plus the byzantine ways in which some of these companies are structured. We also talk about the death of Juul and how we seem to have ended up with a very strange gray market for vapes.

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We've all seen headlines about the multi-million dollar properties being sold in Miami. Right now, there's a $135 million mansion in Coconut Grove listed on Zillow, and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has been snapping up a string of expensive properties in the city, including a $100 million waterfront estate. So what's it like to actually deal in this market? And what are the ultra-rich looking for exactly? In this episode, we speak with Dina Goldentayer, the No. 1 individual real estate agent for broker Douglas Elliman. She's been active in the Miami area for almost two decades and has seen the market for ultra-luxury homes boom alongside her career. We talk about the difference between being a realtor who sells homes for $500,000 versus one that sells homes for $5 million, and whether billionaires are really buying houses after seeing them on TikTok.

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Multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops," have become the hottest ticket on Wall Street. The business model is supposed to allow hedge funds to operate more efficiently. That includes deploying capital in a more productive manner and better managing risk. But how does risk management at some of the most sophisticated funds on Wall Street actually work? In this episode, we speak with Rich Falk-Wallace, formerly of Citadel and now the founder and CEO of Arcana, which provides risk management and portfolio software for multi-strat funds. We talk about how risk models are impacting investor behavior and wider markets, how multi-strat traders come up with their ideas, and the factors that go into sizing and evaluating their positions.

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There are several sources of tension right now between the US and China. Pure trade anxiety is a big one, with the US having imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels and other important industrial components. Then, of course, there are direct geopolitical concerns, with fears over a possible move by Beijing against Taiwan. And then there's artificial intelligence, which countries all around the world see as a crucial geopolitical asset, with the potential to transform economies and militaries if and when it reaches sufficient strength and power. And so, American-based labs are going toe-to-toe with Chinese ones, investing enormous sums of money to get ahead and stay ahead in this race. But what is this actually all about? What kind of advantage does America have in the AI race and can it be maintained? How might it change under another term of President Trump? On this episode, we speak with Jordan Schneider of the ChinaTalk newsletter and podcast, as well as Kevin Xu of the Interconnected newsletter, to discuss the state of play.

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When people talk about the special role that the US dollar plays in the global economy, that's often characterized as a privilege for the United States. It's seen as giving the government in Washington a great amount of fiscal flexibility, and it can be used as a means of punishing adversaries, by cutting them off from our banking system. But could it be that the currency dominance is actually a burden? JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, has made comments to this effect that dollar dominance doesn't serve America's interests well. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Matthew C. Klein, co-author of the book, Trade Wars Are Class Wars, which helped popularize this line of thinking. We talk about the drawbacks to the dollar's strength, how it can hurt the US economy, and what policy measures might ameliorate these effects. We also talk about trade policy more broadly, and what effects a more aggressive tariff regime might have under a second Trump administration.

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According to numerous estimates, the US is massively short of housing. Zillow, for instance, says America needs to build 4.5 million new homes to climb out of this deficit. But right now we're not coming anywhere near to closing that gap. And in fact, the efforts by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation have likely made things worse, with higher interest rates slowing the construction of multi-family dwellings. So is there a way to create more homes, even in a time of high rates? In this episode, we speak with Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities and a former Treasury Department official who managed the restructuring of AIG after the 2008 financial crisis. Millstein has drawn up a plan whereby Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac can enter the market for construction finance and re-start it. He walks us through how — with their existing legal authority — these two entities could make hundreds of thousands of new affordable homes come to the market each year.

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One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now is taking a tough line on China. We saw President Trump put tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Biden administration has only added to them. A second Trump administration may add to them even further. Meanwhile, we're increasingly placing export restrictions on various technologies, such as semiconductors. Stephen Roach, the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and now a fellow at Yale Law School, foresees disaster from this. He sees an explosion of Sinophobia, with policymakers misreading China and ushering us into a new Cold War, where the risk of some kind of accidental conflict will inevitably rise. In this episode of the podcast, we talk about the current tensions, how they compare to the US-Japan trade tensions in the 1980s, and how things could go bad.

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James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, scored big when he made his weight loss drug-related investments last year. He was also early into artificial intelligence investments, making bets on picks and shovels plays, like Nvidia. So what's interesting him right now? And how does a thematic investor grapple with uncertainty from things like the upcoming US election? We talk about the next stage of AI investing, constructing election-related portfolios, going long water, and more.

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