The S&P 500 in the US rose another 1.0% last week, following more evidence inflation is coming under control and in the wake of more solid earnings releases. Having rallied 28.1% from the lows of last October, the US index is just 4.5% below its peak from January 2022. Last week was action-packed across financial markets, and the next five days are looking extremely busy too. There are some crucial economic releases due out of the US, including the ISM indices and the monthly jobs report, both of which the Federal Reserve will be watching closely. Elsewhere on the central bank front, interest rate decisions loom in Australia and the UK. Here in New Zealand, the June quarter labour force report will take centre-stage, but we'll also get the latest business confidence figures and dairy auction results. Corporate earnings will remain in focus, with another 170 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report quarterly results. Technology will be in the spotlight again, with Amazon and Apple both set to report on Thursday. Other companies to watch include Republic Services, Caterpillar, Diageo, Starbucks, CVS Health and FMC Corporation.

The election is less than three months away, the campaign is heating up and political experts are speculating on what the makeup of our next government will be. For the economy, uncertainty always prevails as an election approaches. Businesses tend to sit on their hands, refraining from making any major decisions while the policy backdrop is up in the air. However, once they’re out of the way most firms simply get on with things, rather than letting the political landscape derail their plans. We need to monitor potential risks or changes, but we should also remember that good quality assets and great businesses can perform well regardless of who’s in office. It’s not always wise to make wholesale changes to our investment strategy on the basis of politics.

World sharemarkets remained in an upbeat mood last week, with the S&P 500 in the US rising another 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up ten days in a row, its best winning streak since 2017. Looking ahead, a very busy five days loom, with flash PMIs set to take the pulse of global growth on Monday, then three major central bank meetings later in the week. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are both expected to raise interest rates by another 0.25% each, while we'll hear from the Bank of Japan on Friday as well. Corporate earnings will also be in focus, with more than 160 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report quarterly results. Among others, we'll hear from tech heavyweights Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, as well as some of the oil majors and consumer-facing businesses like Unilever, Coca-Cola, McDonald's and Procter & Gamble.

If you’re feeling a little confused about where global sharemarkets are headed, you’re not alone. Even the experts are unsure, with the range of predictions

The international quarterly reporting season kicked off a few days ago, and over the next few weeks this will be a focal point for share investors. This will be a crucial period for the direction of the sharemarket over the near-term, particularly in the US where much of the strength has come from this year. Despite some risk of earnings disappointment, there are still opportunities to be found. We've seen some stunning gains from a relatively narrow group, while many other parts of the market haven't risen nearly as much. While people have been obsessing over AI and how exciting it might be, many other great companies have been ignored and overlooked.

New Zealand's gross domestic product declined in the three months to March 2023, making for the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Since these figures were released last month it’s been widely reported that the New Zealand economy has experienced a recession. Is that really the case though, and was the contraction big enough or the weakness widespread enough for us to consider this a genuine recession?

Global sharemarkets took a breather last week, with most falling slightly after a very strong first half of the year. Meanwhile, interest rates pushed higher as investors considered the prospect of more monetary policy tightening in the months ahead. There's plenty to keep an eye on in the days ahead, including a Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, an important inflation report in the US, and the start of the international quarterly reporting season. Find out what you need to know and how some of these releases could impact your investments.

The S&P 500 in the US fell 1.4% last week, after five consecutive weekly gains that saw the index rise to its highest level since April 2022 at the end of the previous week. Most other global sharemarkets were softer as well, including the local market. After a strong rally, markets lost a bit of steam as the reality of higher interest rates and slower economic activity sets in. More aggressive moves from central banks in the likes of Australia and England have been a reminder that rates could still rise further in some regions, and they might not fall as quickly as some had hoped. The key releases in the week ahead will include fresh inflation readings in the US and Europe, as well as activity indicators from China as investors consider how further stimulus might develop as economic activity continues to languish. The European Central Bank is holding a central banking forum in Portugal, which will feature a panel of key central bank representatives. The Federal Reserve will also release the results of its annual bank stress tests, which will be very interesting given the failure of several US regional banks earlier in the year. Closer to home, it'll be a relatively quiet week here in New Zealand, with the key release likely to be the ANZ Business Outlook for June.