Inflation will be in the spotlight this week with PCE inflation due in the US on Friday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next month. The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey will be the key release in New Zealand, while the corporate reporting season will continue with Chorus, Summerset, Meridian Energy and Air New Zealand set to releases earnings this week across the NZX. However, the biggest corporate release of the week will come on Wednesday in the US, with NVIDIA due to report.

Last week’s OCR cut received a lot of attention, and rightly so. It was the first since 2020, and it marked the end of 15 months at 5.50 per cent, the highest since 2008. That sparked the biggest two-day rally in New Zealand shares for two years, and the beginning of the easing cycle has seen the market rebound more than ten per cent from the lows of recent months. Is this optimism justified, will it last, and how have shares, bonds and property performed in the past following interest rate cuts?

Last week was a very good one for local investors. The NZX 50 enjoyed its seventh positive week out of the last eight, rising 4.0%, the strongest weekly gain in more than four years. The index is up 10.4% from its recent lows, and at its highest level since January 2022. In the days ahead, markets will be kept busy with a busy week of corporate results, as the likes of a2 Milk, Freightways, Fletcher Building, Auckland Airport and Port of Tauranga all report earnings.

The local reporting season ramps up next week, putting many of our largest listed corporates under the microscope. It’s started more slowly than usual, with only a handful of releases so far and most businesses choosing to schedule earnings announcements for the last two weeks of August. We’ve seen a rebound in the sharemarket over the last few months, with the NZX 50 index rising more than six per cent from its recent lows and July the strongest month since April 2020. So what should we expect from the reporting season, and what will it teach us about the state of corporate New Zealand?

It's a huge week here in New Zealand, with one of the most eagerly anticipated Reserve Bank decisions in recent memory due on Wednesday afternoon. The international highlights will include the July CPI report in the US, as well as retail sales for the same period. Investors will also be watching monthly activity indicators in China and a raft of economic releases in the UK. The New Zealand reporting season will start slowly with Skellerup the only company of note set to report earnings. However, it'll be very busy across the Tasman with results from the likes of CSL, Goodman Group, Telstra and Amcor. International earnings highlights will include Walmart and Home Depot in the US, as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China.

It's been a rough start to August for financial markets, with US shares suffering the biggest decline in almost two years on Monday. A sharp bout of risk aversion has hit, with bond yields lower, growth assets selling off aggressively and volatility measures surging. The Japanese sharemarket has fallen 20 per cent in just three days, something we haven't seen in data going back to 1949. The S&P 500 in the US is down 8.5 per cent from its peak three weeks ago, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen 13.1 per cent. Interest rates are down sharply amidst the nervousness, which has seen bonds and fixed income rise solidly amidst the turmoil in other asset classes. Let's recap what's driving the volatility and offer some tips for investors wondering what to do.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week. However, it left financial markets in no doubt that a cut is imminent, with Chair Jerome Powell noting one might be on the table at the next meeting in September. Inflation is headed toward its target, and cracks are appearing across the economy. A recession isn’t upon us, but the risks of one might be increasing. So will September prove too late, and did the Fed just make a mistake by not cutting last week?

What a week! The S&P 500 fell another 2.1% last week after a surprise jump in the US unemployment rate raised the prospect of a sharper economic slowdown, or even recession. The index is down 5.7% from its mid-July peak, with high-flying sectors feeling the brunt of the selling. Technology is down 12.8%, while consumer discretionary (of which Amazon is the biggest constituent) has slipped 10.1% and communication services (where Meta and Alphabet reside) is 8.7% lower. US interest rates fell sharply, with the two-year Treasury yield falling from 4.4% to 3.9% and the 10-year yield declining from 4.2% to 3.8%. Friday saw the biggest daily decline in yields almost nine months, and the 10-year is at its lowest in more than a year.

It’s been a pivotal month in US politics, with plenty of action since that infamous June debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden has stepped aside and current Vice President Kamala Harris is all but assured as the Democratic nominee. How might this impact the likely outcome, and what should investors be thinking about as we head toward November?