One Decision

The minerals inside your phone, your car, and U.S. fighter jets almost all pass through one country: China.

Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, founding director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to explain how China built a stranglehold on rare earth production, and what it will actually take to break it. Critical Minerals are this century's defining supply chain vulnerability: it's a demand problem, a democracy problem, and, for the West, a race against a country that isn’t swayed by elections.

Also: Israel's espionage escalation against US officials, Poland's rise as Europe's top defense power, and the fall of Orbán's Hungary.

In this episode:

(00:00) Intro: China's Rare Earth Minerals Takeover

(01:43) World Cup 2026 Preview

(03:50) Middle East Conflict Updates

(06:57) Israel Spying on US Officials?

(08:43) Bill Pulte Named Intelligence Director

(10:27) US APAC Strategy Shifts

(14:41) Poland Becomes Europe's Defense Power

(16:44) Hungary After Orbán's Fall

(19:57) China's Critical Minerals Chokehold

(27:12) Western Mining Supply Chain Crisis

(38:28) Frontier Markets: Africa's Mineral Race

(57:32) Taiwan Crisis and Mineral Shortages

Show Notes: 

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist). 

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The Iran conflict contains dueling narratives. Iran says it repelled the attack. Israel says it decimated the nuclear program. The US says it brokered peace. So, how do you find out what actually happened? That’s where Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) can provide valuable information to the public. 

Eliot Higgins built Bellingcat from a Leicester living room blog into the world's most influential open source intelligence organization. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with him to find out how OSINT cuts through the war of narratives on Iran, Ukraine, and the fronts nobody's covering. Plus: why AI is making the truth harder to find, not easier, and why Higgins won't set foot in the United States right now.

Show Notes: 

bellingcat.com 

The al-Qaeda offshoot looking to Syria as a blueprint | The Financial Times

Senior State Department official sought internal communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics | MIT Technology Review

Why these Irish cartel bosses are still free | Search Party  

In this episode:

03:21 Iran Ceasefire

06:39 Israel Strategy Explained

08:53 EU Gets Tough on China

12:30 Mali The Next Syria

16:21 CIA Gold Bar Scandal

20:12 Meet Eliot Higgins

23:37 What Is Bellingcat

25:41 AI Slopaganda Threat

29:20 Dark Web Data Trails

31:13 Russia Adapts Tradecraft

32:54 UAE Image Manipulation

34:07 Rapid OSINT Response

35:57 Blackouts and Radar Tools

37:17 Iran Narrative War

39:17 Tomahawk Strike Verification

41:50 Prediction Versus Proof

43:19 Spies Versus OSINT

46:19 Threats and Harassment

50:56 Ukraine OSINT Evolution

54:50 Why China Is Hard for OSINT

01:00:31 Funding and Partnerships

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

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With Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise occurring hours into the war, the West anticipated a collapse of the Iranian regime and a popular uprising that never came to be. Is a ‘memorandum of understanding’ the only thing preventing total escalation in the region? In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host journalist Kate McCann sit down with John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), to analyze the ripple effects of the war in Iran and what it will take to stabilize the Middle East.

What is keeping a comprehensive peace deal off the table? How did Western intelligence miscalculate the IRGC’s resilience? And where does this leave the rest of the Middle East?

We also break down China’s pledge to support Cuba’s sovereignty, the 75th anniversary of the Cambridge Five espionage scandal, and the latest in the war in Ukraine, including China’s role in training Russian soldiers and the opening of a museum in North Korea that memorializes the North Korean losses in the war.  

In this episode:

1:07 – Iran, Israel & Trump: The Middle East Crisis Explained

2:52 – Cuba, China, and US Spheres of Influence

6:23 – Cambridge Five: Cold War Spy Scandal Revisited

9:51 – Russia, North Korea, and Ukraine War Shifting

13:26 – Iran War: MOU vs. Formal Peace Deal Explained

16:55 – Why a Comprehensive Iran Deal Remains Out of Reach

22:41 – IRGC Resilience: How Iran's Regime Survived

29:08 – Who Has Influence Over Iran's IRGC?

33:51 – Israel's Military Objectives and Netanyahu's Agenda

39:36 – Gulf States' Vulnerability and Abraham Accords Future

45:26 – How Does the Iran Conflict End? Three Scenarios

49:47 – Sir Richard and Kate Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

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95 percent of global internet traffic travels through underwater fiber optic cables. They've never been more vulnerable.

In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood are joined by journalist and author Samanth Subramanian. His latest book,  The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation into the hidden infrastructure holding the world's economy together, and the growing threats to it. Subramanian’s book, The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation 

Iran is threatening to levy tolls on cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. China is cutting cables in Taiwan's territorial waters using "fishing boats." Russia has been probing European undersea networks for years. And yet there's virtually no international legal framework to stop any of it.

Links: 

The Web Beneath the Waves | Columbia Global Reports 

In this episode:

1:05 — Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump's Strategy

3:44 — US-China Summit: What Really Happened

6:10 — Putin Visits Xi: Russia's Anxiety

8:13 — CIA in Cuba: Economic Takeover Begins

11:17 — Israel's New Mossad Chief Explained

13:22 — Germany's BND Gets New Powers

17:52 — Undersea Cable Vulnerability Exposed

18:48 — How 95% of Internet Data Travels

32:58 — Can Cables Be Tapped Underwater?

38:54 — Deliberate Cable Attacks: Gray Zone War

45:04 — South China Sea: The Biggest Chokepoint

54:53 — One Decision: Future of the Internet

55:55 — Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). 

Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

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All eyes are on Beijing as President Trump meets with President Xi Jinping for the first US presidential visit to China in nine years. This week, Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Rush Doshi — former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan at Biden's National Security Council and author of The Long Game — to break down what's really at stake.

What does China want from this summit? How far will Trump go on Taiwan? And why is artificial intelligence now the defining battleground between the world's two superpowers?

We also cover the latest from the Iran ceasefire collapse, the Russia-Ukraine stalemate, and what sweeping local election losses mean for Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister.

In this episode:

Show Links: 

The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order 

Iran's Regime Won't Fall. It Was Built for This. Iran Expert Trita Parsi on Regional Ramifications 

Obama's China Advisor on Why China Wants the US Stuck in the Middle East | One Decision

Will China Invade Taiwan in 2026? Expert's New Insight Reveals "Perfect Storm" | One Decision  

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

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Venezuela's leader Delcy Rodríguez has no constitutional legitimacy, by any standard, including Chavismo's own rules, according to lawyer-turned-journalist Raul Stolk. So who is actually running Venezuela right now? And what does the United States really want?

Raul Stolk, Managing Director of Caracas Chronicles, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann for a deep dive into the power structures propping up the Rodríguez government, the US military's direct line to the Venezuelan armed forces, and why opposition leader María Corina Machado may be the single biggest wild card in the country's future.

Links: 

https://caracaschronicles.com

https://caracaschronicles.substack.com/

https://caracasconsulting.com/ 

In this episode:

2:53 - Iran War Impact on Global Energy Markets

6:34 - UAE Exits OPEC: End of Saudi Dominance

8:16 - New Iraqi Government and Middle East Stability

11:31 - Japan Creates Intelligence Bureau 

15:40 - Venezuela After Maduro: Trump's Business Strategy

17:34 - Delcy Rodriguez Legitimacy and Constitutional Crisis

24:34 - Venezuela Military Power Structure Post-Maduro

30:07 - US Geopolitical Goals in Venezuela

45:07 - Venezuela Oil Market China Russia Rivalry

54:47 - Machado Return: Venezuela Election Wild Card

55:48 - Sir Richard and Kate Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor, The Times)

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Has the divisive rhetoric of President Trump’s administration irrevocably changed America’s reputation in the eyes of its allies and adversaries? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika sit down with Democratic US Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire to discuss how US foreign policy has shifted during Trump’s second term. Beginning with In Brief, Sir Richard and Ayesha examine the history of UK royalty visits to the US from Queen Elizabeth II to King Charles II, and the strategic importance of these visits for maintaining the “special relationship” between the US and UK. Then, Senator Shaheen argues that Trump’s lax approach to Putin and Russia undermines support for Ukraine, emphasizing that a win for Ukraine is a win for the West. She criticizes the administration’s China strategy, warning that the withdrawal of aid and allyship by America has put China in a position to fill the vacuum. The Senator also warns about the growing relationships between members of the “axis of resistance”—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—citing their increased cooperation as why America maintaining its historic alliances with NATO countries and beyond is so critical for a stable world.

In this episode:

03:02 – King Charles’ first official state visit to the US

13:50 – The fragility of the US-UK relationship

17:04 – Allies and adversaries behind the scenes

19:07 – Russia, Ukraine, and the Iran war

21:51 – Putin and the G20

25:10 – What’s next in the Iran war?

24:49 – The blockade ‘game of chicken’ at the Strait of Hormuz

32:39 – US and China relations

36:22 – China’s rare earth dominance

39:26 – NATO defense spending

42:22 – One Decision: Will Iran negotiations be successful? 

45:15 – Sir Richard and Ayesha discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member, House of Lords).

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As Pakistan steps into its role as peace broker, is India being left in the cold? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood are joined by lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale, Sushant Singh, to unpack this dramatic shift in South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Starting with In Brief, Sir Richard and Rosanna look at how the Iran and US blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are putting the global energy economy in peril. They also discuss the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire in relation to the stability of Lebanon’s government, as well as whether secret US talks with Cuba will lead to military or economic intervention in the country. Then, Singh explains the unexpected rise of Pakistan as mediator for peace talks between Washington and Tehran, the diminishing influence of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi globally and at home, and how balancing its relationships with China and Russia may come at the cost of eroding India’s alliance with the US.

In this episode:

03:36 – Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz

08:00 – Latest on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

13:53 – Cuba is back on Washington’s radar

18:43 – Sushant Singh introduction

19:30 – Pakistan’s surprise mediator role

23:00 – Explaining India’s ‘dalal’ remark

25:42 – Modi’s weakening at home

27:59 – Muslim-Hindu divide in India

28:56 – Modi’s Pakistan dilemma

30:18 – Pakistan’s Middle East reclassification

32:04 – The growing irrelevance of the Quad

34:08 – India’s dependence on Russia

39:39 – Erosion of US-India relationship

44:04 – India’s Israeli ties

48:19 – Risks for Pakistan as a mediator 

51:21 – One Decision: Can India and Pakistan start talking again?

53:01 – Sir Richard and Rosanna discussion

Read more: Pakistan’s Peacemaking Is a Setback for India

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist).

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The US has moved critical missile defenses and troops from East Asia to the Middle East. With America’s resources stretched thin, is this the ultimate strategic opportunity for China? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace and Times Radio political editor Kate McCann sit down with former advisor to President Obama and Georgetown University Director of Asia Studies Evan Medeiros to explore what he calls China’s strategy of “calculated neutrality” – protecting Beijing’s economic interests while avoiding direct conflict with the United States. First, for In Brief, Sir Ben and Kate discuss the US’s thinking behind blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Lord George Robertson’s scathing critique of UK foreign policy, and whether Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat signals the beginning of the end of “strong man” populist politics. Later, Medeiros examines China’s balancing of its economic interests in both Iran and the Gulf countries, China’s Iranian oil “loophole” via the UAE, and if the Iran war is deepening fractures in Western alliances, potentially upending the global rules-based order.

In this episode:

02:05 – US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

04:59 – Frustration amongst Gulf states

06:45 – UK Role, and Lord George Robertson’s warning to the UK

12:16 – Does Orban’s defeat signal the end of “strong man” politics?

15:39 – Evan Medeiros introduction

17:04 – Defining China’s “calculated neutrality”

18:28 – Is China above the fray of war?

19:32 – Balancing leverage with Iran and the Gulf states

24:03 – Is Beijing arming Iran?

27:45 – China’s Iranian oil loophole

28:54 – China: Displacing vs. replacing the US

32:25 – Why China avoids regional wars

36:54 – One Decision: China’s vision for a post-American world order

42:08 – Sir Ben and Kate discussion

Hosted by Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defence Secretary) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

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Russia may be issuing verbal condemnations from the sidelines of the conflict in Iran, but behind the scenes, it’s leveraging its relationship with Iran to give the US a “taste of its own medicine.” Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Times Radio political editor Kate McCann sit down with Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss Russia’s calculated role in the escalating war in Iran. Gabuev explains why the US being preoccupied in fighting another Middle Eastern conflict is a “gift” to Putin, including how temporary sanctions relief and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts Russian oil revenues. Together, they also analyze the impact of the war on Ukraine’s security and energy infrastructure, as well as how continued economic strain and repression in Russia may limit its involvement in the conflict.

In this episode:

01:35 – Why the Iran War helps Russia

04:17 – Oil shock and Russian windfall

16:48 – The Iran-Russia alliance

23:11 – Limits of Kremlin support

28:24 – Iran War knock-on effects for Ukraine

32:58 – Ukraine’s Gulf alliance strategy

38:05 – Russian public mood and repression

42:47 – One Decision: What’s Trump’s next move?

44:00 – Sir Richard and Kate discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

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