In rationalist spheres, there's a fairly clear consensus that whatever AI's ultimate impact will be, it is at its core a capable technology that will have very large effects on the world.

In the "general public" sphere, things are very different. There's a less clear but real consensus that AI's ultimate impact will be negative, and not much agreement on the capability of AI as a technology.

I think it's very plausible that this could go the opposite way of rationalists, into a disbelief in the ability of AI as a technology, and eventually a more conspiratorial denial of even current AI capabilities. That is, the general public and policymakers could deny the existence of capabilities that are entirely undisputed among people familiar with the technology. I think this could happen, paradoxically, even in the face of AI-caused societal upheaval, and in almost any takeoff scenario.

It would be [...]

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Outline:

(01:29) Irrationality

(03:21) Capability denial

(13:06) How could we react?

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.