by Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, and David J. Spiegelhalter. (2020)

https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1913678117.

Summary: Numerically expressing uncertainty when talking to the public is fine. It causes people to be less confident in the number itself (as it should), but does not cause people to lose trust in the source of that number.

Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the “posttruth” era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims.

Within many specialized communities, there are norms which encourage people to state numerical uncertainty when reporting a number. This is not often done when speaking to the public. The public might not understand what the uncertainty [...]

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