The Ever.Ag Podcast

Parlor to Plate – August 14, 2024


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In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel gives a summer update. What’s up with $2 cheese? How is August milk production shaping up versus history? And what did this month’s grain reports hold for corn and soybean prices?

Join host Erica Maedke and panelists Kevin PetersonColin Kadis and Mike McGinnis for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

Show Transcript

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;20

VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;22 – 00;00;31;20

ERICA
Hello. Welcome to Parler to Plait, a weekly podcast from insights dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I am your host, Eric McKee. We are excited to have you along today. If you like what you hear. Please like, subscribe and tell a friend or two. Today’s recording is Wednesday, August 14th around 1:00. Here’s a quick rundown of the markets.

00;00;31;22 – 00;01;03;04

ERICA
CME Block Cheddar at 203 up $0.06 on the week. Barrels have rocketed $0.22 higher to 217 spot butters at 312 per pound gaining $0.02. Nonfat dry milk closed at $1.24, up about a penny on the week. In the grain complex, lots of red September corn at 3.78 per bushel, down $0.06 on the week. September beans at 980 per bushel, down $0.41, and September soybean meal at 321 per ton, down 20 blocks.

00;01;03;06 – 00;01;21;20

ERICA
It’s another week. And another all star panel from the Abaribe financial services team. We have Mr. Mike McGinnis, our grain market intelligence manager, Kevin Peterson, who helps manufacturers and end users manage their risk, and Colin Kiedis, who helps dairy producers manage the risk. How’s the summer going? Guys were, what, two thirds of the way through now.

00;01;21;22 – 00;01;23;06

MIKE
Moving fast back to school.

00;01;23;06 – 00;01;42;14

ERICA
Time. It definitely is. So we’ve got about a month left in terms of crop conditions growing and certainly in the heat of the summer in terms of milk supplies getting a little bit tighter. So Mike, let’s start with you on the grain side of things. We had a bunch of reports land on Monday. A lot of new information hit the wires.

00;01;42;15 – 00;01;47;07

ERICA
What can you tell us about the grain complex that’s been sending the markets into a bit of a spin downward?

00;01;47;08 – 00;02;09;26

MIKE
Well, you just mentioned or ask the question how the summer has been going. And for crops, it’s been going very well. We’re expected to have record sized crops for corn and soybeans. The market is reacting, still reacting, and probably will continue to react to this week’s USDA crop production estimates. The was the estimates, the FSA acreage estimates that came out on Monday.

00;02;09;26 – 00;02;32;18

MIKE
And also folks should not forget late Monday afternoon the crop progress report that showed conditions maintaining their position from last week and still very strong compared to three and four years ago. But to summarize the crop production report for corn anyway, it did estimate an average yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. That would be a record if realized.

00;02;32;18 – 00;02;54;20

MIKE
That’s up from 181 in July. The total output of corn estimate was raised by 47 million bushels to 15.1 billion bushels. That’s a lot if you’re keeping track at home. The FSA acreage report for corn. This is separate and a separate report, and we should talk about it. But the FSA came out with a number of 89.1 million.

00;02;54;20 – 00;03;19;12

MIKE
So not as high as the USDA. Again, that compares to the Wise, the report’s estimate of 90.7 million FSA estimated about 2.6 million acres were prevented planting acres this year. And that’s, of course, higher than last year. Now for soybeans. Let’s switch to soybeans. The USDA numbers for soybeans came in with an average yield of 53.2 bushels per acre.

00;03;19;12 – 00;03;49;11

MIKE
Again a record. If realized, the production number for soybeans is 4.6 billion bushels. That’s up from 4.4 billion in July. On to the FSA report. Now, the acreage for FSA. It reported 86 million acres of soybeans. That compares to the August was the report number of 87. And USDA harvested acres jumped up 1 million acres to 86.2. The FSA estimated 774,000 acres of prevented planting.

00;03;49;11 – 00;04;07;29

MIKE
And so when you roll all this up into a ball and hand it to the market, the market says, well, that’s very bearish for soybeans, corn not as bearish, but still putting a lot of pressure on the markets. And that’s really where we stand because the USDA is in this August report for the first time used FSA data.

00;04;07;29 – 00;04;34;01

MIKE
FSA data is pretty accurate because all farmers that are participating in the farm programs have to certify their acres with the FSA. So the USDA Nass agency said, well, we’re going to start using FSA numbers because those are updated by the hour, to be honest. And so they’re like, you know, current estimates, current numbers to be used instead of just, surveying farmers like Nass does each month.

00;04;34;01 – 00;04;48;22

MIKE
They did it in August, and they’ll do it again in September. So the USDA, Nass agency is saying we’re going to start using FSA numbers a little earlier. They’ve always done it for further out reports like October and November, but they’ve decided to start in August. So this was the first time they did that for the August report.

00;04;48;22 – 00;05;10;10

MIKE
And I think it’s surprised a lot of folks. But in general, to answer your question, Erica, we’re looking at big crops, big yields, and also big Indian stocks. The USDA report also showed almost near record world ending stocks for soybeans and very large ending stocks for the U.S. soybean ending stock category. So that’s that’s really what we set.

00;05;10;11 – 00;05;22;27

ERICA
So a lot of grain. And it looks like USDA put most of the additional volume into storage. So the market may be reacting today with some lower prices and saying maybe we should be using that. Hey buyers, come on to the table.

00;05;23;05 – 00;05;39;20

MIKE
That’s right. And in the back of everybody’s mind is this question of do big crops get bigger? And the answer is yes, they do. So not all the time, not every year. But when you look back at the data more times than not, a big crop in August will become bigger. September in on October and harvest.

00;05;39;25 – 00;05;58;16

ERICA
That’s an interesting take, Mike. Thanks, Karen. Let’s switch to your direction as we think about the dairy complex, certainly as grains have been in the red, we’ve seen cheese very much in the green. I think that’s been top of mind for a lot of folks as we come into the dark days of summer and August. Heat here. What’s up with $2 cheese?

00;05;58;18 – 00;06;19;04

KEVIN
Yeah. You know, I think it all starts with milk production. You know, over the last eight, ten, 11 months, you know, down year over year, half maybe a percent. So, you know, milk production trending lower, you know, then we turn to our USDA reports and see Jan to June this year. We’ve made 165 million less pounds of cheddar than we did Jan to June 2023.

00;06;19;05 – 00;06;42;20

KEVIN
You know, that’s being shifted into more mass production. and then we also look at, you know, June ending cold storage and see 50 million less pounds of American cheese in the cooler. Right. And so I think it really does start with lack of production. You know, domestic demand hasn’t been extremely strong all year. But when you produce this much less cheese, you know, you’re going to drawdown your stocks and prices are going to increase because of it.

00;06;42;22 – 00;06;46;17

ERICA
And we’ve had great exports so far to really keep the market cleaned up.

00;06;46;17 – 00;07;15;18

KEVIN
Absolutely. Exports continue to move. You know, three of the last four months we’ve been over 100 million pounds exported. And you know, last month in June we were just below that however is still well above a year ago levels for the month. So just some seasonality in play there. But yeah, definitely continuing to move cheese elsewhere and hearing of, you know, March being able to leave the country right now as well, which again is compounding that issue of we’re not making as much cheddar, we’re making March because we’re able to export it.

00;07;15;18 – 00;07;22;04

KEVIN
And so I think, you know, that is the baseline or maybe why we’re sitting here, you know, above $2 cheese right now for sure.

00;07;22;09 – 00;07;41;25

ERICA
So for our listeners, if you’ve been keeping track at home, we did see US prices not as competitive in the cheese space for a while. And within the last couple of weeks, we really seen European prices move higher, which I think, Kevin, to your point of being a little more competitive now than maybe we were for June cheese.

00;07;42;01 – 00;08;05;21

KEVIN
No, absolutely. You know, maybe off topic a little bit here, but I will add the question I continue to get for the last week or two, and even more so in the last few days. Where’s the milk going to come from for these new plants coming online? The end of this year and the beginning of next, because we look at, you know, on farm profitability and it’s been very good as of late and in the last four days with what Mike saying with grains and feed costs.

00;08;05;21 – 00;08;24;11

KEVIN
And then we’re still, you know, cheese is still running up. It’s got even better than it was. So is that going to cause the milk to come in a substantial way? Are there still issues getting heifer replacements or are we still, you know, beef on dairy. And so these are the questions I’ve been getting. And you know, there’s no simple answer to it.

00;08;24;11 – 00;08;32;05

KEVIN
But, you know, maybe to call in kind of what are your thoughts on there. How quick maybe can we grow this milk to fill these new massive cheese plants coming online?

00;08;32;06 – 00;08;51;09

COLIN
Great question Kevin. A group of us were in your home state last week, and I think one of us commented that it was the most optimistic we’ve ever seen. Dairy mean that’s a good sign. You know, I think the dairymen is happy with the feed prices that he has for the corn in the bunker, and if he’s looking at what it’s going to be, you know, when he puts it in in the next few months here, it’s only going to get better.

00;08;51;09 – 00;09;07;28

COLIN
So cost side of the equation looks great for the dairymen. That’s definitely supportive to milk production. And now the prices are there to just reminder you know we’ve really only seen these higher prices actually hit milk check for about a month now. And guys are just going to start getting the second month worth of checks in a couple days here.

00;09;07;28 – 00;09;23;18

COLIN
So on the cash flow side, it might not have hit yet after a pretty tough Q1. But if there’s one sign that people are excited about growing milk production, all the people in Idaho, we’re saying if they were lucky, they could get a decent ever for three grand. And there were some that chased some fresh heifers all the way up to $4,000.

00;09;23;18 – 00;09;39;21

COLIN
An animal pretty clear. People want to grow. It’s pretty clear there might not be the replacement to let them do that as quickly as they’d like to. But one thing that maybe is a headwind for milk prices here are tailwind for milk production. Even though it’s hot and August is always hot, this is actually one of the more milder August that we’re seeing.

00;09;39;21 – 00;09;53;29

COLIN
So it’s still opportunity from September, maybe October. As bad as July was, it looks like August might be a little bit of a reprieve. So in terms of milk coming back, you know, looking at the futures curve, it seems like the idea that milk will be back when the plant open next year is probably a good idea.

00;09;54;00 – 00;10;12;29

KEVIN
And maybe it. One more quick question from you from the commercial side, Colin. We’ve been seeing a lot of bread to beef on farm as of late as we just covered quick cash, that type of thing. If you breed to a heifer, how long from birth would you say it takes for a milk production to come? Right, because we know milk production is a tough number to move, right?

00;10;12;29 – 00;10;24;04

KEVIN
We get in these big long cycles of negative negative, negative positive, positive, positive and it’s just very hard to turn. So yeah, I mean how quickly can we get milk out of that. Have for if we’re not breeding to beef. Yeah.

00;10;24;04 – 00;10;42;27

COLIN
Great question Kevin. You know so most heifers are going to start lactating and when they’re two years old. So we’re talking about you know 25 to more realistically 2829 months of they did not past that. And then let’s add on nine months of gestation. So you know, I think we have to be a little careful here because the data we have on heifers is so sparse and poor.

00;10;42;28 – 00;10;57;20

COLIN
You know, if we want to just flip the switch now again, we’re not going to see that impact for a while. But there is a lag there. One thing I would say, you know, in 2014 we saw unbelievable heifer prices and then we were still able to see milk prices and production come back in 2010, even though most of that was in Europe.

00;10;57;20 – 00;11;10;23

COLIN
So, you know, we have to be a little bit careful just basing off the heifer prices. But in terms of sentiment, you know, the beef market is still sending a strong message that better to have a black calf and to make more efforts. So I don’t know if heifers are going to solve the problem.

00;11;10;25 – 00;11;20;04

MIKE
And from a producer standpoint, I’m just an outsider listening in. But you have to feed that animal for that long before you get any production. That’s a tough pill to swallow, right?

00;11;20;08 – 00;11;21;04

ERICA
It’s a big investment.

00;11;21;04 – 00;11;30;03

COLIN
But easier now than it really has been in recent times. And that’s why a lot of these producers did shift into beef initially, or out of raising their own replacements. Was $8.

00;11;30;03 – 00;11;49;18

ERICA
Corn. A big thank you to Mike, Kevin and Colin for joining me on today’s episode and sharing your insights with our listeners. Thank you, as always, to our media team for mixing and mastering. And thank you to the listeners for joining us today. If you like what you hear, subscribe on your favorite app. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help people manage risk, contact us at insights at Ever.ag.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

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