Pivotal States

After defeating Japan in World War II, the United States wrote pacifism into Japan’s constitution. For decades, Japan’s political and economic power dwarfed its military, and the United States has provided Japan with its security. 

But times are changing, especially as China has adopted a more aggressive foreign policy. Successive Japanese prime ministers have pushed to develop powerful military capabilities that will allow it to play an even greater regional role and push back against China—including with military force. 

A stronger Japan could be the kind of ally America needs in this crucial region. Japan’s current prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is pushing forward, but rearmament is going to require Japan’s leaders to hurdle large obstacles—domestic and foreign. 

On this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Yuki Tatsumi, a senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. They examine the U.S.–Japan alliance, Japan’s military rearmament, the future of Japanese relations with the other major powers of East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. 

Read some of Yuki’s work: 

Can Japan Optimize Its Record Defense Budget?

https://thediplomat.com/2026/10/can-japan-optimize-its-record-defense-budget/

Takaichi Emerged Victorious, Now What?

https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/takaichi-emerged-victorious-now-what/

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The war in Ukraine to its north; the war in Gaza to its south; the war with Iran to its east: Türkiye sits at the crux of several dangerous conflicts straining the global system. It is a critical American partner but also one of the most difficult for Washington to manage. From its role as an historic bridge between the Middle East and Europe, to the close “bromance” its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, enjoys with U.S. President Donald Trump, Türkiye is a pivotal state worth deeper strategic consideration.

On this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis sits down with Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of the Turkey project. They discuss the U.S.–Türkiye relations, Türkiye's regional ambitions, and the role this U.S. ally has to play in shaping international politics.

Read some of Aslı’s work here: 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/turkeys-search-for-a-middle-east-order/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/turkeys-post-american-hesitation/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/iran-wars-threat-turkey https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/opinion/trump-hormuz-turkey-dardanelles.html

President Trump entered office promising a historic breakthrough with Iran. Instead, the United States finds itself in a costly war with no clear end in sight. Despite moments of optimism for diplomacy, fighting persists, raising difficult questions about why Washington has repeatedly failed to escape decades of conflict with Tehran.

Why has it proven so difficult for successive administrations—Republican and Democratic alike—to replace confrontation with diplomacy? What political and strategic forces keep pulling the United States back toward conflict? And what does the current war mean for America's interests, the Middle East, and the years ahead?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis is joined by Robert Malley of Yale University's Jackson School, a lead U.S. negotiator for the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, and Carnegie's Stephen Wertheim to examine these questions.

For decades, the U.S.-Israel relationship has been one of the closest partnerships in American foreign policy. Today, that relationship is under immense strain. Israel's brutal response to the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and the costs of the war on Iran have fueled serious questions about the wisdom of continued U.S. support for Israel. The growing gap between American and Israeli interests is becoming harder than ever to ignore.

So, is this a turning point in the U.S.-Israel relationship? If so, what changes are actually possible? What leverage does Washington have over Israel, and why has it been so reluctant to use it?

On this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis is joined by Matt Duss, Executive Vice President at the Center for International Policy, and Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss whether America is ready to reset its relationship with Israel, and what that reset might look like.

For decades, U.S. policy toward North Korea has been organized around a single objective: denuclearization. Yet despite sanctions, diplomatic initiatives, and pressure campaigns, Pyongyang has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal while deepening its ties with Russia and China.

Christopher Chivvis speaks to Dr. Victor Cha, one of the world's leading experts on North Korea, to examine how America became trapped in a failing strategy and what a more realistic U.S. policy might look like.

Germany is the key power in Europe today. The future of the continent—and America's relations with it—will hinge on decisions made in Berlin. Yet the relationship is under mounting strain amid the war with Iran, President Trump's claims on Greenland, and possible withdrawals of U.S. troops from Germany. Has longstanding trust between Washington and Berlin been irreparably broken? What can Germany and America do to capitalize on shared interests in the future? Is it even worth trying? 

In Washington, policymakers frame competition with China as a zero-sum contest for power. But does slowing China’s progress actually benefit Americans—or is it a fool’s errand? What might a more stable future for U.S.-China relations look like, and what would it take to achieve it?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and author of the forthcoming book, What China Wants: And What it Means for the World to unpack the most significant bilateral relationship in the world today. They discuss what each side wants from the other and explore what framework the United States should adopt to manage relations going forward. 

For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. Some U.S. officials are even predicting the imminent collapse of its longstanding communist regime. 

But what does the United States actually want from Cuba? What do past U.S. policies toward Cuba tell us about America's options for getting the change it seeks? 

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Michael J. Bustamante, Associate Professor of History and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. They discuss U.S. strategic interests in Cuba, the Trump administration’s approach toward the Island, and scenarios for the future.

From 'spheres of influence' to 'naked imperialism' to 'peace through strength,' analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind.  Over the past year, he has rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Whether one views this record as beneficial or damaging to American interests, one thing seems clear: Trump has unleashed American power on the world stage, creating extraordinary uncertainty for the future world order.

So, how is Trump’s foreign policy shaping the world? To find the signal in the noise, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Visiting Lecturer at Yale Law School.

President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and what comes next. 

What are U.S. national interests in Venezuela in the first place? What does the United States stand to gain from a policy of maximizing control over Venezuela? And how does the U.S. operation in Venezuela impact the region, and even world order?   

To explore the consequences for the United States, Latin America, and the world, Christopher S. Chivvis is joined by Oliver Stuenkel, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo.