President Trump campaigned on peace. Yet, for months, he expanded America’s military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Just days into 2026, Trump had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured and taken to a New York prison. Trump claims the United States will “run the country” until a proper transition takes place. Now the world’s left wondering what that means and what comes next. 

What are U.S. national interests in Venezuela in the first place? What does the United States stand to gain from a policy of maximizing control over Venezuela? And how does the U.S. operation in Venezuela impact the region, and even world order?   

To explore the consequences for the United States, Latin America, and the world, Christopher S. Chivvis is joined by Oliver Stuenkel, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Associate Professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo. 

U.S.–Iranian animosity has persisted relentlessly for more than four decades. From the Cold War to the unipolar moment to today’s multipolar world, tensions between the United States and Iran have remained a constant in an otherwise shifting geopolitical landscape. Understandably, Washington blames Tehran. But where does American agency fit into this story? Where have U.S. policymakers missed chances to reset the relationship? And what stands in the way of charting a new course?

In her new book, Enduring Hostility, Dalia Dassa Kaye examines how America’s foreign-policy elite, from Reagan through Biden, have understood and shaped relations with Iran.

On Pivotal States, she joins host Christopher S. Chivvis to discuss how America's choices have contributed to the stubborn antagonism between the two countries, and what it will take to change the script.

The contest to stay on the leading edge of AI is rapidly taking center stage in America’s strategic competition with China. But what does it actually mean to beat China in AI? Does the United States have the right strategy for navigating this contest? Are policymakers overstating the threats posed by China, or by artificial intelligence itself? And can Washington and Beijing cooperate on areas of high risk even as they compete intensely elsewhere?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Colin H. Kahl, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Biden administration, to unpack the peril and the promise of U.S.–China competition in AI.

President Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He sent his negotiator Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and even hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high-profile summit in Alaska this August. But despite these moves, the war grinds on with no resolution in sight. Negotiations have stalled as Russia continues to demand sweeping concessions. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump is now pressing for more assertive international action against Moscow, even as his own willingness to impose further costs on Russia remains unclear. The path forward looks increasingly grim, and the limits of U.S. influence in Ukraine are becoming ever more apparent. So what kind of outcome is realistically achievable— and at what cost?

To assess the dilemmas inherent in America’s policy toward Ukraine, Chris Chivvis speaks with Thomas Wright, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

This summer, during a trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated that the Indo-Pacific is the U.S. Department of Defense’s priority theater. Yet unlike Europe, the region still lacks a multilateral defense alliance, relying instead on a patchwork of bilateral ties and minilateral arrangements. Should the U.S. push for a formal defense pact in the Pacific? Advocates say a new alliance would bring stability and peace, while critics argue it would escalate tensions with China. In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Dr. Ely Ratner of the Marathon Initiative to unpack the risks and benefits. Dr. Ely Ratner, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs for the Biden administration, lays out his vision in a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact.”

In his second term, President Trump cast himself as a “peacemaker and unifier” and tried to bring a swift end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Six months later, however, those conflicts continue, and last month Trump launched strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.

What has actually changed? Is Trump altering the trajectory of American global power or ultimately delivering more of the same?

Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, from the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program, as they unpack Trump’s second-term record thus far and discuss Stephen’s new essay in the New York Times, “Trump Wants to Put America First. He Has No Idea How.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/opinion/trump-america-foreign-policy.html

Few relationships are as fraught, and as consequential, as America and Iran’s. The Trump administration inherited a golden opportunity to strike a deal, but the path has been anything but smooth. With the Trump now in nuclear talks with Iran, the question looms: Could this be a Nixon-to-China moment? What would a deal mean for the region? What benefits could it bring, and what’s at stake?

Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, as they break down the strategic choices in U.S.-Iran relations.

America’s relationship with the United Kingdom is one of the deepest in the world, but in the face of changing interests and new geopolitical pressures, how important will the UK be to the future of American statecraft? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made it clear that London will not choose between the U.S. and the EU. But navigating this delicate balance isn’t easy. Where is the “special relationship” between London and Washington heading? Does the UK have what it takes to safeguard Europe’s security, with less help from America? Can the U.S. and the UK agree on China?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis explores the U.S.-UK relationship with Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. The Trump administration’s push for a Ukraine settlement has led many to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. What do leaders in Taipei think of these geopolitical changes?  What’s the pulse of the Taiwan public?

To find out, American Statecraft Program and national security experts Christopher S. Chivvis, Stephen Wertheim, Brett Rosenberg, and Matthew Duss visited Taipei and met with Taiwan's officials and thought leaders. In this episode of Pivotal States, they share their takeaways and delve into the United States' policy challenge in Taiwan.

Winners and losers—every major transition has them. For the world to meet its climate goals, it needs to undergo a partial shift away from traditional meat and toward alternative proteins. But who would be the winners and losers of a global protein transition? In Episode 6, we investigate what this transition might look like and what it could mean for national security and geopolitics.