Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets are waiting for some big earnings reports, especially from Big Tech in the US. They are waiting in a positive mood.

But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index rose for a second consecutive month March, the first time that has happened since mid-2022. The result was more than expected and is the highest reading since last November, build primarily on employment gains. When this index is positive it indicates activity is expanding faster than its long-term average.

Canadian producer prices fell -0.5% in March from the same month a year ago, notable because this the smallest fall since February 2023. Raw material prices rose, only the second year-on-year rise in the same timeframe.

The People's Bank of China left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the April fixing, in line with market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was retained at 3.95% for the second straight month. The strong USD limits their ability to cut rates to provide local economic stimulation because doing so would sharply weaken the yuan.

Following a weak February, Taiwanese exports jumped in March to their highest level since July 2022 in an impressive performance. They also got a strong rise in export orders in March, although only at the upper end of what they have been getting over the past year.

Although it is in a minor improving trend, EU consumer sentiment in April has remained deeply negative, well below its long-term average.

Cocoa prices leapt up through an all-time record US$5000/tonne in early February. Three weeks later they hit US$6000/tonne. Two weeks after that it was US$7000/tonne. US$8000/tonne came just a few days later. Then an accelerated surge began in earnest, hitting US$10,000 at the end of the first week of April. Today? Well this price has reached US$12,218/tonne. Where to from here? As hard as it is on chocolate consumers, I hope the West African farmers are getting some long-delayed rewards.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.63% and up a minor +1 bp from this time yesterday. 

Wall Street is roaring today with the S&P500 up +1.3% on expectations of strong earnings reports and future guidance that is positive, especially from Big Tech companies. Tesla is likely to star in these releases for all the wrong reasons, however. Overnight European markets all rose, led by London's +1.6% and trailed by Paris's +0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Monday session up +1.0%. Hong Kong ended up +1.8%. But Shanghai fell -0.7%, a real outlier in yesterday's trade. Singapore ended up +1.5%. The ASX200 finished up +1.1% and the NZX50 closed up +0.5%.

The price of gold will start today sharply lower, down -US$61 from this time yesterday at US$2330/oz.

Oil prices have slipped -50 USc again, to just on US$81.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just under US$86/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today up +¼c at just under 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are a +¼c firmer too at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.1 and up +30 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today sharply higher at US$66,788 and almost a +3% gain from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.9%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.