Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news today is all about commodity prices. Silver has jumped sharply, gold and platinum are up, copper is at a record high, and both nickel and aluminium have surged too. Tin is at a three year high. Lithium is on the move up again too after a two year slumber.

It's not only hard commodities. The overnight global dairy trade auction surprised to the upside. A small gain was anticipated but in the end we got a +6.3% rise in USD terms, +6.5% in NZD terms. There were gains across the board, but the largest was for WMP (+7.2%), followed by SMP (+5.4%). There follow a worrying string of declines that set in from August, Elevated buying from China was a key driver, but that was on top of sharp increases in demand from the Middle East.

The +6.3% rise in USD was the largest since March 2021. The +6.5% rise in NZD was the largest since September 2022. Despite these encouraging signs, overall prices are now only back to early December levels. The rises will be welcome, but on their own are unlikely to alter any farmgate payout prices. Today's recovery will need to be sustained. Don't forget, prices in USD have fallen -22% from May 2025 even after today's lift.

In the US, the S&P Global services PMI for the US retreated back to a modest expansion in December after the good expansion the previous month which was revised lower. This metric is now at an eight month low. New business growth dropped to its lowest in 20 months as inflationary pressure bit harder.

Meanwhile, the Logistics Manager’s Index retreated for a second consecutive month in December. It was the slowest expansion in the logistics sector since April 2024, with the majority of the downward pressure coming from inventory and warehousing markets. Transportation costs rose more than expected.

Total vehicle sales in the US rose to a 16 mln annual rate in December, up from a 15.6 mln rate in November. A year ago they ran at 16.9 mln annual rate, so a -5.3% decline.

In China, total vehicle sales have not yet been announced, but it is very likely they exceeded 36 mln in 2025 with growing strength in the past six months. That will be +14.6% higher than their 2024 level.

China equities hit a decade high in Tuesday trading.

Meanwhile, an historic climate shift is bringing record rainfall to China’s northern regions, overwhelming unprepared cities and upending agriculture, while leaving the traditionally lush south parched.

In Europe, food giant Nestle is recalling infant formula after serious contamination concerns.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.18%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$4487/oz, and up another +US$45 from yesterday and heading back up toward its end of year record high. Silver is up sharply to US$81.50/oz and a new record high, and platinum is also back up sharply at US$2430 and also almost at its end of year record high.

American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just over US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.8, and down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,515 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.