Productivity Puzzles

Will artificial intelligence rescue us from the productivity demise? If humans cannot get productivity up, can intelligent machines bring about the productivity revival? While certainly not the only digital technology that has come along in the past few decades, AI perhaps speaks to our imagination more than all those before it as it directly impacts on the daily activities of many listeners to this podcast. This episode analyses various facets of AI, including generative AI, its potential applications, estimations of productivity gains, drivers and barriers to adoption, labour market effects, and the UK's strategic response.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Erik Brynjolfsson, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI), and Director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
• Tera Allas, Director of Research and Economics at McKinsey & Company, UK.
• Lea Samek, Economist at the OECD Science, Technology & Innovation Directorate.

For more information on the topic:

• Martin Neil Baily, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Anton Korinek (2023), Machines of mind: The case for an AI-powered productivity boom, Brookings.

• McKinsey & Company (2023), The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier, June.

• Jan Hatzius et al. (2023), The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth, Goldman Sachs.

• Flavio Calvino and Luca Fontanelli (2023), A portrait of AI adopters across countries: Firm characteristics, assets’ complementarities and productivity, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2023/02.

• Andrew Green and Lucas Lamb (2023), The supply, demand and characteristics of the AI workforce across OECD countries, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 287.

• Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (2023), A pro-innovation approach to AI regulation, London, March.

• The human capital behind AI : Jobs and skills demand from online job postings | OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers | OECD iLibrary (oecd-ilibrary.org)

• Calvino, F., Samek, L., Squicciarini, M., and Morris, C. (2022), Identifying and characterising AI adopters: A novel approach based on big data, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, No. 2022/06, OECD Publishing, Paris.

• Samek, L., Squicciarini, M., and Cammeraat, E. (2021), The human capital behind AI: Jobs and skills demand from online job postings, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, No. 120, OECD Publishing, Paris.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

Can we make the economy greener and still be productive? Or even better, can productivity help us to make the economy greener? This episode of Productivity Puzzles examines what climate change and the transition to a Net Zero means for productivity, and whether the challenges to green the economy make it even harder to raise productivity. Crucially, can productivity help to make the economy greener? Can green technology and innovation be used more productively than other technologies?

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Anna Valero, Senior Policy Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE and Deputy Director of the Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (POID).
• Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Senior Economist in the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Division, Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), OECD.
• Jonatan Pinkse, Professor of Strategy, IMP Innovation, Strategy and Sustainability, at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester.

For more information on the topic:

• Resolution Foundation (2022), Growing clean: Identifying and investing in sustainable growth opportunities across the UK, The Economy 2030 Inquiry.
• The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, POID, CEP (2021), Are ‘green’ jobs good jobs? How lessons from the experience to-date can inform labour market transitions of the future. 
• Frank Geels, Jonatan Pinkse, Dimitri Zenghelis (2021) Productivity opportunities and risks in a transformative, low-carbon and digital age. Working Paper No. 009, The Productivity Institute.
• OECD (2023), Driving low-carbon innovations for climate neutrality, Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, No. 143
• Mission Zero. Independent Review of Net Zero, Chris Skidmore, 2022

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

Is the five-day work week becoming something of the past? Does working less make us and the organisations that we work for better off? Could it even make us more productive?

This episode explores the four-day work week, which has become a popular topic in the media, chats at the water-cooler, and, more recently, in boardrooms. With more firms committing to a shorter work week without a noticeable cut in workers’ wages, Bart and his guests look at how we could maintain productivity while reducing hours by around 20%. To put it differently, can productivity per hour be increased by 25%?

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Nina Jörden, Research Associate with the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge.
• Joe Ryle, Director of the 4 Day Week Campaign and Media and Communications Lead at Autonomy.
• Jon Boys, Senior Labour Market Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.

For more information on the topic:

• Autonomy, The results are in: the UK's four-day week pilot, February 2023.
• Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, The four-day week: Employer perspectives on moving to a shorter working week, October 2022.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.

How do Further Education Colleges contribute to the provision of skills needed for innovation and productivity in regions, cities and towns? How do they identify what businesses need, and how do they work with firms, local government and other schools? This episode of Productivity Puzzles focuses on the findings of a summary report looking into these issues, which was commissioned by The Productivity Institute and supported by the Gatsby Foundation.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Jen Nelles, Senior Research Fellow with the Innovation Caucus and co-director of the Oxford Regions, Innovation, and Enterprise Lab (ORIEL) at Oxford Brookes Business School.
• Ben Verinder, Founder and Managing Director of Chalkstream Ltd.

For more information on the topic:

• J. Nelles, B. Verinder, K. Walsh and T. Vorley (2023) Skills, Innovation, and Productivity: The Role of Further Education Colleges in Local and Regional Ecosystems, The Productivity Institute and Innovation Caucus.
• J.Nelles, K. Walsh, M. Papazoglu, T. Vorley (2022) FECS, innovation, and skills: A literature review, Productivity Insights Paper No. 012, The Productivity Institute.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

There is a new UK government department for science, innovation, and technology. Will the new standalone entity turn Britain into the science superpower that it hopes to become? Will the new department lift productivity growth during the hard times that the country is currently facing? This episode of Productivity Puzzles investigates these issues and more.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Richard Jones, Vice-President for Innovation and Regional Economic Development and Professor of Materials Physics and Innovation Policy, University of Manchester. 
• Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy, University of Cambridge.

For more information on the topic:

• Richard A.L. Jones (2022), Science and innovation policy for hard times: an overview of the UK’s Research and Development landscape.
• Diane Coyle and Jen-Chung Mei (2022), Diagnosing the UK Productivity Slowdown: Which Sectors Matter and Why?. A summary of the paper can be found on the Bennett Institute website.
• Richard A.L. Jones’ blog, Soft Machines.
• Richard A.L. Jones, (2007), Soft Machines: Nanotechnology and Life, Oxford University Press.
• William J. Baumol (2002), The Free-Market Innovation Machine: Analyzing the Growth Miracle of Capitalism, Princeton University Press.
• Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb (2020), Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?, American Economic Review 2020, 110(4): 1104–1144.
• Jon Agar (2019), Science Policy Under Thatcher, UCL Press.
• Tristram Hunt (2021), The Radical Potter: Josiah Wedgwood and the Transformation of Britain, Penguin Books.
• John Harvey-Jones (1990), Troubleshooter, BBC Books (via bookshops).
• Griliches, Zvi (1957), Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change, Econometrica, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Oct.), pp. 501-522.
• On the Haldane Principle:
• Ministry of Reconstruction (1918), Report of the Machinery of government committee.
• David Edgerton (2009), The ‘Haldane Principle’ and other invented traditions in science policy. History and Policy: Policy Papers.
• William Jayneway (2018), Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets, Speculation and the State, Cambridge University Press.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

What do we know about where productivity is heading? What will happen to productivity in the UK, around Europe, and even around the world? This episode takes a forward-looking perspective on future productivity and what needs to be done to realise that productivity potential. What policy changes can be made and what measures can businesses implement to improve the productivity outlook.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Catherine Mann, External member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England
• Kitty Ussher, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors
• Klaas de Vries, Senior Economist at the Conference Board

For more information on the topic:

• The Conference Board, Total Economy Database 
• The Conference Board, Global Economic Outlook.
• Abdul Azeez Erumban and Klaas de Vries, Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2019, The Conference Board, 2018.
• Klaas de Vries & Sacha Wunsch-Vincent, What is the future of innovation-driven growth: Productivity stagnation or revival?, World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), 2022.
• The Institute of Directors, How To Increase Business Investment: IoD response to the Treasury workstream on ‘People, Capital and Ideas’, 2022.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

Should the next Prime Minister embrace productivity as a cornerstone of the policy agenda for the new UK government in September? Can it help to get us through the economic winter ahead of us, and onto a path of sustained recovery? What policies are most critical, what should be continued, strengthened or perhaps stopped?

The final episode of Season 1 of Productivity Puzzles looks at the policy agenda for the new government, with discussion on the key elements that will help productivity to recover. In the short-term, what role does productivity have in dealing with the current problems of rising cost and shortages of labour and energy? Over the long-term, what should the government focus on to address the issues in a fundamental way?

To access the Making Public Sector Productivity Practical report referenced in this episode, visit Capita’s website.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Diane Coyle, Co-director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge
• Catherine Mann, External member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England
• Adrian Pabst, Deputy Director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

For more information on the topic:

• Diane Coyle, Tax cut vows are a distraction from the UK’s woeful productivity, FT, August 2nd, 2022.
• Bart van Ark and Diane Coyle, Can public services improve their productivity without new funding?, The Productivity Institute, 2022.
• Bart van Ark, Making Public Sector Productivity Practical, The Productivity Institute, 2022.
• Paul Mortimer-Lee and Adrian Pabst, Covid-19 and Productivity: Impact and Implications, NIESR/TPI, 2022.
• Arnab Bhattacharjee, Max Mosley, Adrian Pabst, and Tibor Szendrei, Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions, NIESR, National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2022.
• NIESR/TPI, Productivity in the UK: Evidence Review, June 2022.
• Philip McCann, Levelling Up: The Need for an Institutionally Coordinated Approach to National and Regional Productivity, The Productivity Institute, 2022.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is sponsored by Capita and brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It’s funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

Despite showing slow productivity growth over the past decade, the public sector has performed better than the private sector and there is quite a bit of scope for further improvement. This instalment of Productivity Puzzles delves into how and why productivity could grow in the public sector.

This episode is a prelude to the publication of the Making Public Sector Productivity Practical report, which is soon to be released by The Productivity Institute and Capita. You can pre-register to access the report on Capita’s website.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Paul Abraham, Managing Director & Client Partner at Capita Public Service
• Stephen Aldridge, Chief Economist and Director of Analysis and Data at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
• Anna Smart, Systems Thinking/Organisational Design Lead at London Borough of Camden

For more information on the topic:

• Making Public Sector Productivity Practical - Executive Summary, 2022, Bart van Ark.
• Improving public sector efficiency to deliver a smarter state, 2016, Stephen Aldridge, Angus Hawkins and Cody Xuereb.
• Institutional drivers of efficiency in the public sector, OECD, 2007, Wouter van Dooren, Zsuzsanna Lonti, Miekatrien Sterk and Geert Bouckaert.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is sponsored by Capita and brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It’s funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

How can productivity benefit not just business and the economy, but also ourselves? What does it take for a society to grow productivity and raise well-being? Can digital technology make us happier, as well as more productive?

In this episode, we look at which investments are needed to create more well-being and what role social factors, such as trust, play in raising productivity and well-being. The discussion is varied, with conversations about how we measure well-being effectively and what further data is needed to make informed choices, as well as a debate on whether digital technology has a positive impact on our lives and on our productivity as a whole.

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Conal Smith, Senior Economist at the Institute for Governance and Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington
• Tim Hazledine, Professor of Economics at the University of Auckland Business School (retired)
• Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge

For more information on the topic:

• The International Productivity Monitor, number 42, is available from The Productivity Institute resource centre with copies of all of the papers referenced in this episode.
• Well-being and Productivity: A Capital Stocks Approach, 2021, Conal Smith and Jaimie Legge.
• Trust, Deep Trust, Productivity and Well-being in 136 Countries, 2021 Tim Hazledine.
• Time Use, Productivity, and Household-Centric Measurement of Welfare in the Digital Economy, 2021, Diane Coyle and Leonard Nakamura.
• World Happiness Report, 2022.

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is sponsored by Capita and brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It’s funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

Did you know that the manufacturing sector in Wales accounts for a larger share of the economy than elsewhere in the UK? That the Welsh economy is also developing exciting new activities in arts and culture and tackling the difficult balancing act between raising productivity and improving health and well-being head on? 

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the productivity performance of Wales and how it stacks up against the rest of the UK. We’ll discuss the key drivers, sectors and resources as well differences between large and small businesses and regions. There is also an interesting question on how productivity fits in with the Welsh Wellbeing of Future Generations Act and the parallels between Net Zero and productivity growth. 

Host Professor Bart van Ark is joined by:

• Andrew Henley, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Economics, Director of Research Engagement and Impact Cardiff Business School 
• Rhian Elston, Investment Director at Development Bank of Wales.
• Ben Cottam, Head of Wales, Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)

For more information on the topic:

• Wales’ Productivity Challenge: Exploring the issues 
• The Wales Productivity Forum 
• Scoping the future of Innovation Policy in Wales, May 2021 by Rick Delbridge, Dyla Henderson and Kevin Morgan

About Productivity Puzzles:

Productivity Puzzles is sponsored by Capita and brought to you by The Productivity Institute, a research body involving nine academic institutions across the UK, eight Regional Productivity Forums throughout the nation, and a national independent Productivity Commission to advise policy makers at all levels of government. It’s funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.