This post is different.

Usually I offer commentary and analysis. I share what others think, then respond.

This is the second time I am importantly not doing that. The work speaks for itself. It offers a different perspective, a window and a worldview. It is self-consistent. This is what a highly intelligent, highly knowledgeable person actually believes after much thought.

So rather than say where I agree and disagree and argue back (and I do both strongly in many places), this is only quotes and graphs from the paper, selected to tell the central story while cutting length by ~80%, so others can more easily absorb it. I recommend asking what are the load bearing assumptions and claims, and what changes to them would alter the key conclusions.

The first time I used this format was years ago, when I offered Quotes from Moral Mazes. [...]

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Outline:

(02:04) Section 1: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

(12:43) Section 2: From AGI to Superintelligence: The Intelligence Explosion

(21:05) Section 3a: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster

(30:42) Section 3b: Lock Down the Labs: Security for AGI

(40:27) Section 3c: Superalignment

(57:05) Section 3d: The Free World Must Prevail

(01:03:00) Section 4: The Project

(01:10:01) Part 5: Parting Thoughts (Quoted in Full)

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First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.