In this episode of The Decisive, we're sharing highlights from our US macroeconomic webinar on May 20, featuring expert commentary from our economics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

We dive deep into the forecast for the US economy, which faces a slowdown. Projected growth is expected to average just 0.8% per quarter in 2025, raising questions about the potential for a recession. We explain the anatomy of a recession, walking through recent examples, and share our outlook.

Our economists also discuss the implications of elevated tariffs, which are contributing to inflationary pressures and reshaping business investment decisions. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach amid policy uncertainty is also explored, with expectations for a pause in rate adjustments until late 2026.

Listeners will gain valuable perspectives on the rising federal budget deficit, projected to increase from 6% to 7% over the next decade, and its effects on the US dollar, which is anticipated to weaken in the coming years.

Join us for this informative episode as we unpack these critical economic trends and equip you with the knowledge to navigate the evolving landscape. Stay curious and stay informed with The Decisive Podcast.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Recession Risks
• Global Economic Outlook: May 2025
• Trade and tariffs insights and news

Credits:

• Host: Alyssa Grzelak
• Guests: Juan Turcios, Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Mike Konidaris
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun