We were joined this week by none other than Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, author of The Next Perfect Trade, and more recently The Trades of March 2020 – A Shield Against Uncertainty, and a legend in the macro hedge fund industry. Our conversation included topics such as:

• His background in math, and as a competitive chess, GO and poker player
• An analytical approach that was well-suited for a Wall Street trader
• Skin in the game – he wanted to be a trader from the start, not an analyst
• Typical patterns in financial markets tend to repeat themselves much more frequently than most investors realize
• Employment and energy prices as strong leading indicators for a recession
• Interest rate momentum and a bearish outlook for equities
• How tighter monetary policy may be the wrong tool to fight inflation caused by higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions (and could backfire)
• Political pressures, the Fed, and the increasing likelihood of a policy error
• An investment approach focused on major global asset classes and big picture thinking
• Seeking opportunities with asymmetric odds
• Precious metals are less about inflation and more about liquidity
• A risky moment for the global reserve currency
• How to protect against low probability scenarios that can pose devastatingly negative outcomes
• Creative hedging
• Avoiding unnecessary complexity when expressing views – vanilla is usually better than exotic options
• Time horizons, and differentiating risk management for a trade vs portfolio holding
• Sizing, stress analysis and conviction – why stop losses are not always the best way to manage risk

 

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

 

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.