Robin and I just had an interesting 2-hour AI doom debate. We picked up where the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate left off in 2008, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.

My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) on the order of 50%.

Robin's position remains shockingly different: P(doom) < 1%.

I think we managed to illuminate some of our cruxes of disagreement, though by no means all. Let us know your thoughts and feedback!

Topics

• AI timelines
• The "outside view" of economic growth trends
• Future economic doubling times
• The role of culture in human intelligence
• Lessons from human evolution and brain size
• Intelligence increase gradient near human level
• Bostrom's Vulnerable World hypothesis
• The optimization-power view
• Feasibility of AI alignment
• Will AI be "above the law" relative to humans

Where To Watch/Listen/Read

• YouTube video
• Podcast audio
• Transcript

About Doom Debates

My [...]

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Outline:

(00:48) Topics

(01:19) Where To Watch/Listen/Read

(01:28) About Doom Debates

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