In this episode of the Missing Middle podcast, mortgage broker Ron Butler sits down with conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt to discuss the current crisis in the Toronto condo market. Ron outlines the vast scope of the problem stemming from pre-construction purchases made during a speculative boom. He explains how investors are facing significant losses as property values decline, while also addressing the broader implications of poor development choices and the lack of low-rise housing options. The conversation explores the role of government in addressing these issues and the potential for positive change in the housing market.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction Ron Butler

01:06 Outlining the Toronto condo market crisis

04:07 How much of this story is a Toronto and Vancouver story?

05:22 Never go cash-flow negative?

07:01 How do we have a glut of condos during a housing shortage?

09:51 How condo developers contributed to the crash

12:13 Who is Most Affected by the Crisis?

14:00 Financing challenges and future outlook

15:33 The perfect storm - purpose-built rentals

17:18 Government subsidized rentals

18:13 The greenbelt and Downview Airport land

19:39 Is this the Toronto bubble burst? Is it The One?

20:23 Low-rise homes in Toronto - a brief history of artificial scarcity 

23:05 What about family sized condos?

25:08 What’s the best non-terrible case scenario here?

27:32 The role of government in housing solutions

29:08 It wouldn’t be an MM podcast without Mike talking about development charges

30:25 Sabrina wants the government to get out of the way

Research and links:

The Angry Mortgage podcast

How low will rents go?

416 Condo Crash

Chart Storm: Five graphs on Toronto’s historic condo market collapse

Guest: Ron Butler, https://x.com/ronmortgageguy

https://www.butlermortgage.ca/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/