Alright it's time for Friday confessional. 

With the Pope passing away, all this focus on Catholicism's got me feeling repentant. 

There are two things I predicted would happen last December as I was signing for Christmas here at Newstalk ZB. One of those things hasn't happened and the other one is about to not happen. 

Poilievre winning the Canadian election and Albo losing Australia's. 

We all know who's to blame. You know who – the wildcard, the kamikaze, the outlaw, it was the Trump Bump that did it for both of these guys.  

Carney, while he's won, will have a very tough term in office given the whole rally round the flag effect in support of Canadian sovereignty will fizzle out as quickly as Jacinda's Covid election high – the underlying problems Canadians felt before this month-long love-in will remain. This will surely be his high tide mark. 

But that's no excuse. I got it wrong. Fair cop. 

And as for Dutton, who's been looking behind every couch and under every rock for something relevant to say, he’s now beating up on the return to country. Which during a cost of living crisis people want sorted, is akin to Judith Collins' attack on fat people at the ill-fated 2020 election. 

Remember that? If you want to lose weight, then eat less. Actually, not an unreasonable thing to say for most but it's the timing, isn't it? It's the focus on that when it should be on bigger things. 

And that brings us to the elephant in the White House: Donald Trump. 

While I predicted he'd win last November, I think most of us underestimated just what “America first” meant for the rest of the world. When somebody comes first, somebody loses. 

And both Albo and Carney have been beneficiaries of that. 

His power of course has swung global political pendulums before. Remember the rise and international star power of Jacinda Ardern was born out of an anti-Trump backlash. The liberal young female prime minister banning assault rifles in a country post mass-shooting became the darling of global left – just the tonic for those who not just dislike, but despise Trump and his band of merry MAGA supporters. 

So the political lesson is don't underestimate the Trump Bump and Dump on any foreign election. 

The question is, what does it mean for our election next year? 

We're less affected by his tariffs, unless China implodes. We’re not yet being threatened with invasion. Unlike the Aussies and Canadians, our incumbents are bent to the right.  

So the risk of a Trump Bump getting Chippy over the line here if he starts singing from Phil Goff’s songbook is perhaps more limited – but not non-existent. 

When Washington coughs, somebody gets a cold. 

How Luxon and Winston et al. navigate the next 18 months will determine whether it's them that catches it. 

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