If this is still going on in two or three weeks, lots of countries, including ours, will start to feel the pinch. 

Brent Crude Futures topped out at $85 a barrel overnight, the highest price since 2024.

JP Morgan says it could hit, worst-case, $120. 

The Iraqis are now pulling back production because of the Hormuz logjam. 

Refineries in Asia are, according to Bloomberg, thinking about cutting production by 20-30% for the same reason.

You've got tankers backing up and unable to port. 

All this stuff means delays. 

Our economy is quite dependant on oil and gas. It's a common misconception that we aren't.

Because we generate 80% of energy as renewables, or thereabouts, people often think that's the same as use. In fact, about 60% of our energy comes from fossil fuels. 

Kelly Eckhold from Westpac told me yesterday it's likely petrol prices will go up for us. As of yesterday, he estimated 8 cents a litre at the pump within a week or two. 

Oil prices are lower by comparison of late but that $100 to $120 barrel JP Morgan scenario is key. That's the point at which our inflation forecasts would have to change. 

And we know that that means, prices going up. 

Think about how much of what you do in a day, driving a car, using a plastic pen, powering your business, trucks getting food to supermarkets, uses oil. 

And once you get those prices going up, you get general prices going up. 

And then you get the Reserve Bank's back up. And then what? Do consumers pull back spending again?

Is this event the hill our recovery dies on? 

Let's hope not. It's early days. Scenarios are exactly that. A lot of TBC. 

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