Schiff Sovereign Podcast

In today’s podcast, we discuss the recent crypto meltdown (led by Ripple) and how it plays into our recent theme of avoiding huge mistakes.

Here’s the thing about big mistakes… they’re usually obvious and avoidable.

Like when the Social Security Board of Trustees told the world in its 2017 report that the “Trust Fund reserves will be depleted by 2035”… and that an “immediate and permanent reduction” in benefits to all current and future Social Security recipients is a reality.

The government is telling you Social Security is running out of money. What are you doing about it?

Likewise this morning, when Bloomberg reported China (the world’s largest foreign holder of US Treasurys) is considering slowing or halting purchases of US government debt.

This would have potentially catastrophic financial implications… and it’s been a worry for a long time.

But most people simply ignore the possibility.

You can tune in here to learn about some of the big problems that are coming down the pipe and some simple steps you can take to prepare for them.

My colleague, Sean Goldsmith, just returned from a tour of the Caribbean.

He met with several local governments about their ‘citizenship by investment’ programs – a way to receive a passport by donating money or investing in local businesses or real estate.

If you have the means, this is probably the quickest and easiest way to obtain a second citizenship.

We’re exploring ways for Sovereign Man readers to get a special deal on these citizenships… and hope to make a major announcement on that front early next year.

In today’s podcast, Sean updates us on his travels and discussions with the government. And we discuss why everyone should want a second passport… especially today.

In today’s podcast, I chatted with Silver Bullion’s founder Gregor Gregersen.

Silver Bullion is a precious metals storage company based in Singapore.

While here in Singapore, Gregor and I discussed why the gold versus Bitcoin debate is misguided. It’s not an either-or proposition.

Instead, with systemic risks in the financial system, the case for holding both precious metals and cryptocurrency makes sense.

And Silver Bullion offers solutions for both asset classes.

[Full disclosure: I’m a director of Silver Bullion.]

Gregor’s a software engineer with experience in finance. He recently published a 35-page white paper on an exciting way to hold encrypted, secure Bitcoin in cold storage for decades. And with software Gregor developed himself, you can now store gold at their facility, borrow money with your gold as collateral and buy Bitcoin.

You also don’t want to miss Gregor’s opinion on why cryptocurrency and gold will survive the next financial crisis.

In today’s podcast, I tackle the subject of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).

Regular readers know I’m skeptical of cryptocurrencies. And I think many ICOs are outright frauds.

We’ve seen celebrities like Paris Hilton, Jamie Fox and Floyd Mayweather all endorse ICOs. A friend of mine who’s raising money in an ICO even told me these things are a bubble.

Still, we see more and more companies raising capital from a rabid public.

But regulators are already sniffing around. And there are two things that could cause this bubble to crash… quickly.

You can listen here.

In today’s podcast, I discuss the recent Paradise Papers fiasco – the massive leak of sensitive, offshore financial information held by the Bermudan law firm Appleby.

This thing has been a complete witch hunt in the media…

The whiny journalists paint the wealthy and famous who parked money offshore as criminals… Though they begrudgingly admit their actions are completely legal.

We explain why the wealthy, gasp, actually do some good for society and why we’d much rather the wealthy are able to keep more of their wealth than hand it over to the government to squander.

But the Paradise Papers issue is more than just a media circus – it’s class warfare.

You won’t want to miss my theory of why people are so angry today and why it’s only going to get worse.

You can listen here.

Bitcoin hit another all-time high today on the back of two, major announcements.

Dedicated Sovereign Man readers know I don’t pay much attention to Bitcoin’s price. Instead, I focus on the market cap and demand fundamentals.

In today’s Podcast, I explain my thoughts on the future demand of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and what these two announcements mean for the sector.

And I share the role of investor psychology in cryptocurrency speculation… And why most people buying crypto today will get crushed – even if Bitcoin hits $1 million a coin.

In today’s podcast, Sovereign Man’s Chief Investment Strategist Tim Staermose joins me to talk about the risks in today’s market…

We cover the rise of passive investing, and why we think it could cause chaos when the market turns – with some of the biggest and most popular stocks (like Apple and Amazon) falling 10% or 20% in a day.

We also discuss the massive amount of debt in the system today and how capitalism has turned upside down.

Tim also explains his value-investing strategy that has led to a 97% success rate in his advisory service, The 4th Pillar… And he shares a couple of his favorite opportunities today.

You can listen to the full discussion here.

Today’s Notes is a bit different…

I recorded a conversation I had with my colleague Sean Goldsmith about my recent travels to Venezuela. I explain how I exchanged my US dollars on the black market for Bolivar (with a taxi driver I’d never met before)… and how the situation in Venezuela will get worse before it gets better. Plus, I share observations and stories of things I saw on the ground in one of the world’s poorest and most dangerous countries.

Then we discuss the tragedy in Puerto Rico… and why I think Puerto Rico is still one of the greatest opportunities in the world today. They’ve run the numbers, and their tax incentives like Act 20 and Act 22 are helping the island. I expect the amazing incentives will stay in place. And, although the hurricane was devastating, the financial aid that comes along with the storm is a catalyst to get Puerto Rico back on its feet.

You can listen to our conversation below.

First it was Pets.com, and all the unbelievably stupid Internet businesses in the 1990s.

Investors were so eager to buy dot-com stocks, all you had to do was put an “e” in front of your business or product and you’d immediately be worth millions.

It didn’t matter that most of these companies didn’t make any money. Investors kept buying.

Later on after the dot-com bubble burst, another big craze developed in junior mining stocks– shares of small exploration companies looking for big mineral deposits.

The epicenter of the junior mining industry is in Vancouver, Canada, and the stock exchange there (TSX-V) throttled to record highs.

Shares of companies with literally no profits, no revenue, and no assets were worth tens of millions of dollars.

Then that bubble burst.

A few years later, a new hot craze developed– in cannabis companies.

The market has been flooded with companies (many of them curiously based in Canada’s poor climate and high cost structure) with plans to grow medicinal marijuana.

Their stock prices have soared, with valuations in some cases exceeding $1 billion.

Every time the bubble bursts with these big trends, most of the companies get wiped out.

Only a handful survive– primarily the ones who focused on building long-term, sustainable businesses instead of chasing a quick buck.

From the ashes of the dot-com bubble, companies like Amazon, Godaddy, eBay, etc. emerged in-tact and are still successful today.

Similarly, while many junior mining companies went completely bust, a handful are still operating and quite profitable.

And there will be a few extremely successful cannabis companies over the next several years who step over the remains of their innumerable, defunct competitors.

Clearly today’s big craze is crypto and blockchain.

Like the dot-com bubble in the 90s, you could add the concept of blockchain to just about anything and have a ‘business’ worth millions, no matter how idiotic the original idea.

(Someone will soon pitch me an idea for an app to publish grocery lists into the blockchain. It’s absurd.)

And like all the other big investment fads in the past, most of the companies in this space won’t exist a few years from now.

There are lot of reasons for that, starting with the fact that building a business is hard.

I’ve done it successfully a few times. And unsuccessfully more times that I care to remember: it’s incredibly difficult, so the odds are against most of these companies anyhow.

But more importantly, these big investment fads always attract people looking to make a quick buck. And that doesn’t work in the long-run.

Case in point: earlier this week a company called HIVE Blockchain Technologies went public.

It’s stock price is already up over 3x… since MONDAY, from an opening of 62 cents to $1.89.

Just prior to that, the company closed a private placement at 30 cents… and a few months ago the company was selling shares between 1 and 3 cents.

In other words, a handful of speculators made more than 600x their money in just a few months with a company that has ZERO revenue, simply because ‘Blockchain’ is so popular right now.

This has become the norm in the world of crypto and blockchain.

ICOs, another hot crypto fad, have been racking up huge returns of their own.

‘Tokens’ issued by crypto startups that have no profit or revenue are seeing similar gains of 2x to 10x or more in a very short period of time.

In the case of HIVE, the company is in the business of mining cryptocurrency.

And based on its current stock price, HIVE is worth close to $400 million.

Yet its own financial statements report that they have not generated a penny in revenue.

What’s more, the company’s “illustrative results” show that they -could- make around $7 million per year.

So investors are already paying 57x that amount before the company even gets started.

Even more curious, HIVE’s only real asset is its client relationship with a company called Genesis, one of the largest crypto mining companies in the world (and also a major shareholder in HIVE).

Genesis has more than a million customers who pay an up-front, flat-fee to have the company mine cryptocurrency on their behalf.

HIVE is now essentially a customer of Genesis.

So investors are essentially buying shares of HIVE at a price that’s 57x what the company says it -could- be making (but isn’t) by having Genesis mine cryptocurrency for them.

Seems like investors could save themselves the trouble (and forgo the 57x share price markup) by simply becoming direct customers of Genesis themselves.

Who knows… maybe HIVE is the real deal. Maybe it’s the rare eBay or Amazon that emerges from the bubble in-tact and successful.

But this is a pretty clear example of the irrationality that ensues every single time there’s some white-hot investment fad.

After a hiatus of many, many, many moons, I blew the dust off my microphone and recorded a new podcast about this topic.

It wasn’t so much a podcast as a heated rant against this ridiculous bubble… and a clear explanation of precisely WHY so many crypto assets are generating unbelievable returns.

You can download it here.

Yesterday I recorded a new podcast with my US-based tax attorney to talk about the Trump administration’s new tax plan… or as I like to call it, the plan to have a plan.

Clearly they’re trying to do something positive and significant.

But to say that their strategy is light on details at just a single page would be a massive understatement.

Rather than rehash and recap what has already been covered in the media, my attorney and I dove into some of the more important issues: what’s NOT in the plan, what are the major details to sort out, and what’s SAFE?

Personally, I’m extremely skeptical of major tax reform… though I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

As I’ve written a number of times, the last time the tax code was updated was 1986.

Tech-savvy consumers were still using 5 ¼ inch floppy disks. Many of our readers hadn’t even been born yet.

The 1986 tax code was perfectly reasonable for an industrialized economy dominated by large companies like General Motors.

Today, technology makes it possible for companies to generate income across the world through products and services that are entirely digital.

Yet today’s companies are still forced to use the same hopelessly outdated tax code.

It’s such an embarrassing anachronism, it would be like the US government using those 1980s era 5 ¼ inch floppy disks to run its nuclear program.

Oh wait…

The reason I’m skeptical, though, is that each and every line item in the tax code has a certain group of beneficiaries that’s willing to fight tooth and nail to keep it.

There are people who benefit from all the deductions that the administration wants to eliminate. There are even people who will fight to keep the widely-hated Alternative Minimum Tax and Estate Tax.

And the larger problem, of course, is that millions of taxpayers and businesses have made plans and structured their affairs in a way to conform to the current tax code.

Pulling the tablecloth out from underneath them and suddenly changing the rules could end up causing some serious blowback.

So it’s enormously difficult to please a firm majority. And even if they manage to pull this off, they’ll still be accused of not being ‘revenue neutral.’

This is the part I find to be completely absurd.

The tax code is going to affect hundreds of millions of people and businesses in the largest, most complex economy in the world.

Economist cannot possibly predict with any accuracy how a radical overhaul of the tax code is going to impact the US government’s tax revenue ten years from now.

Nevertheless, this is going to be one of the primary arguments against the plan.

One of the points my attorney and I discussed is what will remain safe, i.e. what they’re NOT going to touch.

Retirement accounts are CLEARLY in that category.

If you have an IRA or 401(k), that’s not going to be touched. It would be politically disastrous for everyone.

This means that establishing a robust retirement structure like a self-directed SEP IRA, or a solo(k), is still a fantastic option, regardless of what they do with the rest of the code.

With a self-directed SEP IRA, for example, you create a new retirement plan with a contribution limit that increases from $5,500 to as much as $54,000 per year.

That’s almost 10-fold. Plus the contributions are tax-deductible, meaning you can aggressively (and LEGALLY) reduce the amount of income tax that you owe.

Meanwhile, the idea of a self-directed IRA structure is that your retirement plan owns precisely ONE asset: an LLC.

(You’ll need to find an IRA custodian that accepts self-directed structures, like IRA Services.)

You (or your spouse, parent, financial advisor, etc.) become the MANAGER of the LLC, which essentially gives you far greater discretion in how your retirement funds are invested.

Rather than be stuck in an overpriced stock market, for example, your self-directed IRA plan can own income-producing real estate, farmland, private businesses, cryptocurrency, secured debt, etc.

Under the current tax code there are a number of restrictions that are known as “prohibited transactions”. Those are probably here to stay.

You cannot use your IRA funds, for example, to invest in your own business, pay yourself any fees or compensation, buy/sell property that you personally own, or that is owned by immediate family members.

That’s why it makes sense to talk this over with a professional. But the benefits are absolutely worth having that discussion.

For now, I invite you to listen in to our conversation about the tax code, i.e. the plan to have a plan. It’s available here.