A genocidal militia called the Rapid Support Forces has been laying siege to the city of El Fasher, in Darfur, for nearly 500 days. But in recent weeks, the situation has grown far worse. Some 250,000 people are now trapped in the city and are enduring relentless bombardment from drones and artillery. Food is scarce, and an untold number of people are starving to death. To make matters worse, recent moves by the Rapid Support Forces suggest they may be preparing for an all-out assault on the city.

This is a pivotal moment in Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in April 2023 when two generals—once allies in toppling a civilian-led government—turned their guns on each other, unleashing what is now the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

After two and a half years of fighting, the Sudanese Armed Forces control most of the country’s east, including Khartoum and a key port city. The Rapid Support Forces, meanwhile, hold much of the west, including resource-rich Darfur—with one critical exception: Darfur’s historic capital, El Fasher.

Joining me to discuss this precarious moment in Sudan’s war and what might finally bring an end to the conflict is Noaman Elwaleed Mousa, a PhD student in political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies civil wars in Africa. We begin with the situation on the ground in El Fasher and the broader significance of this battle for Sudan’s future.