Sully's Two Cents

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC East

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 144 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East.

Dallas Cowboys

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Tony Pollard – Overall ADP 119 RB47

Making the decision to buy Tony Pollard should not be taken as my dislike for Ezekiel Elliott, because the complete opposite is true. For the longest time this offseason, Zeke has been undervalued, as of now at RB6 his value is where it should be. Pollard in my opinion will see a larger percentage of snaps and touches this season.

2021 will be the year of the backup running back, due to the 17th game. Its not that the backups will take over, its the fact they will be used more. Tony Pollard in 2020 saw an uptick in touches as Elliott appeared to have given up on 2020. Pollard is PFF’s fifth-highest-graded running back over the past two years, he tied with Nick Chubb for the highest rate of missed tackles forced per rush, and tied with Derrick Henry for the most yards after contact per rush. Now imagine him with an increased workload.

Player I Am Selling

Amari Cooper – Overall ADP 42 WR16

Amari Cooper found himself in the exact same category for me entering 2020. After 5 weeks of play I looked like a complete fool. Cooper was WR8 thru the first five weeks and only a season ending injury to QB Dak Prescott saved me.

This season, Cooper is more appropriately priced, making this sell a little more difficult. CeeDee Lamb makes it a little bit easier. I see Lamb taking the WR1 title in Dallas by mid season. Cooper had off season ankle surgery, missed OTAs as a result allowing Lamb to be used all over the field vs. the slot where he primarily was in 2020. Cooper still has a lot of tread on his tires and I do see him as a top-24 WR, I just see him closer to 20 than to 16 so I will go ahead and sell Amari once again.

Take the Flyer

Blake Jarwin – Overall ADP 175 TE21

Having a share of the Dallas Cowboys offense on your fantasy roster in 2021 is highly recommended. This offense should be a high scoring large volume passing offense. The team is full of weapons and the defense is still one of the weaker ones despite some upgrades thru the draft.

I was on board the Blake Jarwin hype train last season and I had him ranked inside my top-12 TE. That hype train derailed in week one versus the Los Angeles Rams when Jarwin tore his ACL and was lost for the season. You don’t have to draft Jarwin in most Fantasy leagues, but he should emerge as a key waiver-wire addition if things go right. And it won’t be a surprise if Jarwin becomes a weekly starting option in all leagues. Beat the waiver wire and take the flyer.

New York Giants

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 143 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

The past three seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer.  Approaching the 2021 season, I am happy to bring you the fourth annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Stefon Diggs – Overall ADP 14 WR3

With an ADP this high, there is not much wiggle room. Stefon Diggs however is one of few that I am buying at this ADP. The reality is I have to pick someone in the second round and I would be thrilled if it were Diggs.

Diggs went from a good Fantasy receiver prior to 2020 to one of the best, and he should continue to produce quality stats this season. He’s worth drafting as a top-five Fantasy receiver as early as Round 2 in all leagues. In his first year in Buffalo in 2020, Diggs led the NFL in receptions with a career-best 127 while also producing career highs in targets (166) and yards (1,535), along with eight touchdowns. He scored at least 14 PPR points in all but two games, including more than 20 PPR points seven times. Josh Allen should continue to lean on Diggs, and he has the chance to repeat as the league leader in receptions and targets. Its Diggs’ consistency that lures me in here and I see Stefon Diggs as a WR that could finish as the top scoring WR in fantasy this season.

Players I Am Selling

Josh Allen – Overall ADP 29 QB 2

Buying Stefon Diggs, makes it a little hard to understand why I would be selling his QB. The answer is simple, I prefer to draft my QB later and target other skill player positions in round three. Allen is properly valued, and he is the QB2 in my opinion and has a legit chance to repeat as the QB1.

I had Allen as a sell last season when his ADP was 90th and he was QB10, clearly that was a huge mistake. I figured he would run less with the addition of Zack Moss to pair with Devin Singletary. Well, he continued to use his legs and 2020 was his third season in a row of at least 400 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He’s a dual-threat quarterback in a pass-happy offense, and he should continue to post dominant stats. While he did lose John Brown this offseason, the addition of Emmanuel Sanders should help offset that. And Diggs, Cole Beasley and hopefully the emergence of Gabriel Davis should help Allen continue to excel. He should again be one the best Fantasy quarterbacks in 2021, and I very well will regret selling him once again.

Take the Flyer

Gabriel Davis – Overall ADP 187 WR64

Fresh off a successful rookie campaign in 2020, Gabriel Davis quickly established himself as a serious threat to score at any opportunity.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West

Hello Heat Seekers Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 142 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

The past three seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer.  Approaching the 2021 season, I am happy to bring you the fourth annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP.

As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We kick off the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West

Player I am buying

James Conner – Overall ADP 100 RB38

James Conner joined the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, placing him in a committee with fellow back Chase Edmonds. This ambiguous backfields gives Conner upside as a No. 3 running back that I would be comfortable drafting as early as Round 5.

Conner has been more efficient as a pass catcher than Edmonds, but the expectations is that Conner will handle the early down and short yardage work while Edmonds works more in the passing game. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has produced 34 running back touchdowns over the past two seasons, giving Conner top-15 upside, and making him an easy buy at his current ADP.

Players I am selling

Kyler Murray – Overall ADP 39 QB3

I have to start this one off by saying I am a huge Kyler Murray fan. Kyler Murray will be one of the first three or four quarterbacks taken in every draft, as he should be. What I am not a fan of is drafting a QB within the first four rounds of the draft. I have Kyler ranked 51st overall and as my QB4.

Entering 2021, Kyler has QB7, and QB2 finishes on his resume, and he possesses QB1 overall upside. The addition of James Conner in my opinion will limit Kyler’s red zone rushing attempts. Nine of Murray’s 11 rushing scores came within the red zone in 2020. Kyler will once again be a top-5 QB barring injury. At his current ADP, I will pass and take my chances on a quarterback in the later rounds.

Take the Flyer

A.J Green – Overall ADP 178 WR63

A.J. Green retuned in 2020 after missing the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury. Green was targeted 104 times last season, that unfortunately only led to 47 receptions for 523 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He finished 111.3 PPR points and as the WR68. Green set career-lows in catch rate (45.2%), yards per catch (11.1) and yards per game (32.7).

They call this take the flyer for a reason folks. Green is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense. As a result he has bounceback potential. To be clear his days of being an elite wide receiver are long gone, but in the 14th round he is worth the dart throw.

Los Angeles Rams

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West

Player I am buying

2021 Fantasy Football Hot Takes

Hello Heat Seekers Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 141 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

Well, I am back, finally sitting down in from of the mic, for the first time since early June.  It feels like forever, and it sure feels great to back.  I have been focusing on the written content for our website. I recently completed my Top-50 Series which highlights each player in the top 50 startup ADP over at Dynasty League Football.

Each season this podcast takes a turn in the offseason to a dynasty format focus and in training camp I turn it more towards redraft formats.  Today kicks off the redraft focus of the pod, with that said I am always focused on dynasty as well.  Today is my annual BOLD TAKES, or HOT TAKES, whichever you prefer.

Quarterbacks

2021 Fantasy Football Hot Takes

There has never been a QB to have a season in which he threw for 4000 yards and ran for 1000 yards. In 2021 there won’t be one to do it, there will be three – Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts.

2021 has 17 games, so assuming health for all three, improvements to the receiving core in Philly and Baltimore and a healthy Philadelphia offensive line, these are well within reach for both Lamar and Jalen. In Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season he finished with 3127 yards passing and 1206 yards rushing. Last season he threw for 2,757 yards and had another 1,005 on the ground. Lamar hitting 4000 passing yards is the biggest concern here for me. His MVP pace over 17 games would have been 3,322. He will need to average 236 passing yards a week. His career best is 208/game.

Jalen Hurts in 2020 in his three full starts threw for 847 yards and ran for 238. His 16-game pace extrapolates to 4517 yards passing and 1269 yards rushing. Do I expect him to finish a fell season at this pace, no I don’t but I do see Hurts being a top 5-8 fantasy QB this season and to get there he is going to need to use his legs. The passing game is his biggest area of opportunity. To throw for over 4000 yards, a QB needs to average a shade over 235 yards a game. With the Eagles o-line healthy and the addition of Devonta Smith, plus Jalen Reagor taking the next step, I see him getting there.

Kyler should hit 4000 yards with ease. In 2020 he threw for 3971 yards and ran for 819 yards. So he was he was 29 yards shy of 4000 passing yards last season and gets an additional game this year to do it. If he averages the 248/game he did in 2020, he will finish with 4216. The rushing will be his area of opportunity – he averaged just over 51 rushing yards a game last season, in order to hit 1000 in 2021 in 17 games he will need to run for 59/game. I believe he can.

Drew Lock will finish 2021 as a top-12 Fantasy QB

Alright assuming that you have not turned off the podcast, I’ll keep going. First things first he wins the job in Denver, I am not concerned that Teddy Bridgewater pushes Lock aside at all.

Drew Lock played in 5 games as a rookie, after dealing with a hand injury early in his rookie season. In those 5 games he completed 64% of his passes for 1020 yards 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not world beating numbers but over 16 games that is a pace of 3264 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTS. His 16 games pace was 199 points and a QB26 finish.

2020 – New coaching staff, new OC, no offseason program, no preseason, keep in mind this is still basically a rookie QB. He is limited to 13 games due to injury and being placed on Covid IR.

Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021

Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 140 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts. 

During the 2020 NFL season, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for a total of 2,027 yards. In the process, Henry become the eighth RB in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a single season. Henry’s performance clearly benefited those that managed a roster with him on it in 2020. Henry finished his 2020 campaign with a career high finish in points with 331.3 and placement as the RB3. In a season when many (myself included) called for regression, Henry improved on his 2019 performance of 294.6 PPR points and a RB5 finish.

The 2,000-yard rushing accomplishment is certainly significant, after all, in the leagues 101 year history only eight have done it. One of the most difficult decisions a dynasty manager can make is when to move on from a high performing asset. Don’t believe me, just ask all those that still have Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell cluttering up their rosters. When looking at the asset that Henry is and trying to determine what to do with him, it led me to ponder what became of the seven previous members of the 2,000-yard club. Utilizing statistics courteously of Pro Football Reference, I took a deeper look into this exclusive club with the intent of finding a trend. The trend I discovered is the reasoning behind why you should sell Derrick Henry in 2021.

Eric Dickerson – Los Angeles Rams

Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021

Eric Dickerson ran for 2,105 yards in 1984, a record that still stands today.  He accomplished this on 379 carries (5.6 YPC) and for good measure Dickerson added 21 receptions for 139 more yards.  In total on 400 touches, he posted 2,244 yards and scored 14 touchdowns.   

140 - Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021 119

Clearly 1984 turned out to be his best season; after all, he set the league rushing total.  What is interesting is the decline after the 1984 season.  In 1985, his carries dropped by 87, his yards by 871, his YPC by 1.4, and his touchdowns by 2.  His receiving game stayed near his previous season and his total touches and yards as a result dropped by 88 and 884.

Dickerson set the record when he was 24 and saw a bounce back season in 1986 at the age of 26.  In his last full season with the Rams, he bounced back to 1,821 yards and exceeded 400 touches for a second time.  He finished that season with 430 touches for a combined 2,026 yards. 

Dickerson had a few more productive years in 1988 and 1989, as he ran for 1,659 in ’88 and another 1,311 in ’89.  1989 was his final 1,000+ yard rushing campaign.  In total, he spent 11 seasons in the league, and he topped 1,000 rushing yards in eight of them and over 2,000 total yards on four occasions. His 2,000+ rushing yard season was the only season in which he ran for over five yards per carry. 

Dickerson finished the 1984 season as the RB4 with 327.4 PPR points. He regressed to RB19 and 218 points in 1985. Dickerson remained productive, finishing as RB3 in 1986, and RB2 in 1988, but coming out out his 2,000-yard season was the ultimate time to sell high on this record holder.

139 – The Fantasy Impact of a Julio Jones Trade

The Fantasy Impact of a Julio Jones Trade

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 139 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

As crazy at it sounds the Atlanta Falcons are discussing trading the face of their franchise Julio Jones. Now Atlanta isn’t looking to move the sure-fire hall of fame WR because they doubt his abilty to continue to play at a high level, no they are looking to move Jones because the are in need of salary cap relief.

The Falcons are up against the salary cap, they reportedly don’t have enough money to pay their rookie class. If Atlanta deals Jones, it will solve their issues this year and give them some added flexibility for next season.

According to overthecap.com, Julio Jones is a $23,050,000 cap hit in 2021. If they were to cut or trade Julio before June 1st, there would be a $40,550,000 dead cap hit to absorb. Now if they wait until after June 1st, the dead cap turns into a $17,500,000 savings. You do not need to be a mathematician to determine when the time to move Julio is, if you are cash strapped GM Terry Fontenot.Julio would also be fairly affordable for the acquiring team, with annual salaries of $15.3 million in 2021 and $11.51 million in the final two years of his contract. Of the money owed to Julio over the next three seasons, only $17.5 million of it is guaranteed.

Do I think the Falcons should trade Julio Jones? No, I do not. Do I think Atlanta trade Julio Jones? Yes, yes I do. So that very opinion raises two very interesting questions that I will attempt to answer here today. The first is where does he land, and the second is what is the fantasy impact of a Julio Jones trade.There thirty-one teams that should be interested in acquiring Julio Jones. Realistically I see seven teams that I believe are both interested in acquiring Julio and have the cap flexibility to do so.

New England Patriots

139 – The Fantasy Impact of a Julio Jones Trade

When I think of Julio going to the Patriots the first word that entered my mind is gross. Despite my personal feelings on this landing spot, it appears at this time it may very well be where he goes if dealt. Bill Belichick doesn’t enjoy losing it would appear and he has been extremely aggressive in attempting to improve his offense this offseason.The Patriots added a pair of tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and also added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Agholor and Bourne are decent supporting cast members but these two WRs are not going to move the needle for an offense that ranked 27th in both points and yards per game in 2020.The Patriots have both the ammunition and mindset to make a deal and can create enough cap space through a minor transaction or two. New England like every team this time of year believe they can contend with either Cam Newton or first-round rookie Mac Jones under center, and that the addition of Jones would take them over the top.From a fantasy perspective the addition of Julio would crush what is left of the fantasy value for players like Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, as well as Bourne and Agholor. It would also expedite the timeline on rookie QB Mac Jones. Trading for Julio to play with Cam Newton makes little to no sense to me.The deal for Julio would have a negative impact on his fantasy value, but only a slight one. Assuming everyone is healthy Julio is unquestionably the top target...

Top Draft Picks vs Top Fantasy Performers 2010-2020

138 - Top Draft Picks vs Top Fantasy Performers 2010-2020 156

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 138 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I am your host; I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.

For those that have been listening to this podcast for a while will know that I bring you an annual hit rates episode. Those episodes take a look at historical data from seasons past in order to predict the percentage of those drafted likelihood to be fantasy relevant in their careers. Have a listen to episode 135 for this year’s version if you are interested. In the three years that I have done these studies, nothing has changed the percentages for the most part are consistent each and every season.

The top players selected at each skill position in this year’s NFL draft currently occupy the top ranking at their position in my rankings.  Trevor Lawrence, Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts.  I believe it is safe to say that my top ranked players are ranked this way by many. There may be some differences out there, but I feel its safe to say these are the consensus top ranked players at their position.

I thought it would be interesting to use the same historical data that I use to determine hit rates, to determine how often the first selected QB, RB, WR, and TE were indeed the right players to select first in your rookie drafts.  Simply put I want to know how often the top players selected by NFL General Managers, turned out to be the top fantasy players in their draft class. 

That is what episode 138 sets out to find out and we start it off by looking at the quarterback position

Quarterbacks

Top Draft Picks vs Top Fantasy Performers 2010-2020

Of the 11 first selected quarterbacks from 2010-2020, eight of them were the first overall selection in their NFL draft.  Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Joe Burrow.  In addition to these eight, EJ Manual, Blake Bortles, and Mitchell Trubisky were also the first QB selected.  Manual was the 16th overall selection in 2013, Bortles 3rd overall in, 2014 and Trubisky was second overall in 2017. 

Top Draft Picks vs Top Fantasy Performers 2010-2020

Now as one would expect the eight members of this QB group that were selected first overall for the most part have gone on to have successful careers. Four of the eight were the top fantasy QB in their rookie season, the four that were not, were Andrew Luck, in 2012, who finished as the QB9 in his rookie season, behind Robert Griffen III who was QB5.  EJ Manual finished his rookie season as the QB28, second in the class to Geno Smith who finished at QB20 in 2013, Jared Goff finished as the 4th highest scoring in 2016, behind Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Cody Kessler.  In 2017 Mitchell Trubisky finished as the third highest scoring rookie QB, behind Deshaun Watson, and DeShone Kizer. 

Top Draft Picks vs Top Fantasy Performers 2010-2020

45% of the top drafted QBs turned out to deliver the top fantasy rookie season.  When we look at the span of their careers, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Kyler Murray all the first QB taken in their respective drafts have had the best careers to date relative to those in their draft class. 

Geno Smith (drafted 2nd) was the best of a terrible 2013 class, Derek Carr (drafted 4th), the best of the 2014 class,

2021 NFL Draft Round 1 Dynasty Reaction

2021 NFL Draft Round 1 Dynasty Reaction

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 136 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I am you host; I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.

Episode 136, 2021 NFL Draft Round 1 Dynasty Reaction.  I will run thru the first 32 picks and give you my 2 cents.  I’ll touch on the defensive selections, but it’s the offensive players specifically the skill positions I am here to talk about. To keep up with all the action from the 2021 NFL Draft visit our RotoHeat website.

If you are looking for more in-depth coverage on the defensive players tune into the RotoHeat IDP live stream over on our YouTube channel, each and every Monday night with Brad Menendez and Kraig Reuth. The draft is an exciting time. It’s exciting for the entire 2021 rookie class, these young men could have their lives changed when their name is called. This is an exciting time for NFL franchises and their fans. The opportunity to add young talent to fill holes on your roster is near mouth-watering. This is also an exciting time for Fantasy mangers, especially Dynasty managers who have rookie drafts right around the corner.  The opportunity to add youth with upside is equally as exciting for the dynasty manager as it is for the NFL franchise and their fan base. 

It is also exciting for fantasy analysts that have ran out of things to say about this 2021 rookie class.  We have draft capital and landing spots, and with those we have plenty to talk about now. So let’s dive into the reac

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence – QB Clemson

No surprise here, Trevor Lawrence has been mocked to this spot since leading Clemson to the 2018 National Title game as a true freshman. Lawrence will operate an offense with potential, DJ Chark who I have been down on for years gets a lift, Marvin Jones gets a lift, and Laviska Shenault gets a big lift if he can stay healthy.  The Jags also added a RB later in round one and I’ll get to that in a moment.  Lawrence looks like the real deal, a generational talent they say and the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.

Lawrence remains my top ranked QB and when I complete my SF start-up rankings, he will likely be in the 8-10 range.  Like many I am very high on this rookie.

2. New York Jets:  Zach Wilson – QB BYU

Rumoured for months to be the second selection in the draft, BYU QB Zach Wilson goes to the Jets. Wilson had a breakout year last season, ranking second in the FBS in completion percentage. He tossed 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and finished No. 10 in the FBS with a 307.7 passing yards per game. Wilson also rushed for 10 touchdowns in 12 starts for the 11–1 Cougars in 2020.

Wilson has a gunslinger mindset, possessing the arm talent to create explosive plays inside and out of the pocket. His strength was on full display during his Pro Day, where every NFL team was present except for the Rams. He threw multiple off-balance passes that went 50 yards. His addition lifts the value of Denzel Mims, Corey Davis, and Jameson Crowder.  I expect the Jets to add a RB on Friday and who knows maybe we get something out of Chris Herndon. Wilson was my 4th ranked QB heading into the draft and that is where he will remain.  I like the QB, and I believe he’s the second-best real life QB in this draft,

Late Round 2021 Rookie Flyers

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 136 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I am you host; I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.

episode 136- Late Round 2021 Rookie Flyers.  I am sure most have completed their top-12 or top-24 rookie rankings at this point as we prepare for the NFL draft on April 29th.  These rankings are sure to change once draft capital and landing spots are determined. By now, I am sure you all know, landing spot doesn’t really matter much to me, its relevant but draft capital means much more than landing spot to me. 

The players I am going to discuss today, likely won’t have very good draft capital, in fact I am sure there are some rookies that I discuss today that don’t get drafted at all. 

These are players that I have studied for rookiedraftguide.com and players that I see with upside and I see them as value adds in the later rounds of your rookie drafts.  When you start throwing darts at guys in round 4 and 5, throw them at these guys. I have selected six players for your dart throwing enjoyment.

QB – Kellen Mond – Texas A&M6’3” 211 Lbs.21-Years-OldCurrent Rank: 56th overall QB7

Late Round 2021 Rookie Flyers

There are the Big 5 at the quarterback position in this upcoming draft and outside of NBC’s Chris Sims I don’t know of anyone that has Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond among them.  I do see some upside in Mond’s game in terms of fantasy football.  In 4 years in college Mond threw for 9661 yards and 71 touchdowns with 27 interceptions.  In addition to his passing, Mond ran 468 times for 1609 yards and 22 touchdowns. 

Coming out of high school, Mond was rated as the No. 2 quarterback recruit in the nation, behind Tua Tagovailoa. While Mond was only a four-star prospect, he was the highest-rated dual-threat quarterback.

It’s the rushing upside that I like when I watch Mond.  He is a true dual threat QB, and at 6’3” 211 lbs, he can move. In addition to his legs, he has a good arm.  Where there are opportunities in his passing game, are his mechanics, his throwing motion is not exactly what you want in your starting QB.  He is a hot and cold QB, when he is hot, he has done well, and as expected when he’s cold he’s ice cold.

What is extremely interesting to me is Mond is 21 years old, and he has 46 games of college experience.  There are some teams that I would prefer more than others in terms of a spot for Mond.  Washington, Houston, and Minnesota come to mind.  He’s not a QB that I feel will start anytime soon, but on the three teams I mentioned he doesn’t need to. I want him to land in a spot that he has the potential to start, and I see that potential in those three cities.  

In Washington, fan favorite Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a long-term answer and as good a story as Taylor Heinicke was a season ago he isn’t the answer either.  Mond would work well in the Scott Turner offense and the offense has plenty of weapons.

Houston is a mess and with the Deshaun Watson saga continuing and looking worse with each passing day, there is likely some opportunity here.  Houston did add Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Finley this offseason but neither one of those fine gentlemen moves the needle.  Houston also doesn’t have the draft picks to grab a QB.  They won’t be on the clock until pick 67 in the third round and pick 109 in the 4th seems about right for Mond. 

My Minnesota Vikings need to draft a QB,

Rookie Hit Rates 2021 Edition

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 135 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast.  I am you host; I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.

Today is Sunday April 11, 2021 and the 2021 NFL draft is only 18 days away.  There has never been a better time for you to visit rookiedraftguide.com.

The team has grinded thru hours, and hours of rookie tape. At last count we have watched film on 108 draft eligible rookies on offense alone. The reason for all this hard work you ask? Well, its all to create our player evaluations for rookiedraftguide.com.  I’d really appreciate it if you would head on over and check it out.

When you get there, you’ll find all our rookie player reviews for both 2021 Offensive and Defensive prospect breakdowns. Become a VIP for only $6/month to view all eight category rankings, view the strengths and weaknesses our team has identified for each player, as well as the draft slots. All of our evaluators on the team have laid out the range that they are comfortable drafting these rookies in every scoring format imaginable.  The bonus of this $6 spend is access to our player rankings on rotoheat.com and all of our ADP information. 

Don’t think of it as a $6 spend, think of it as a $6 investment in you. Investing $6 in yourself is well worth it and will give you a leg up on the other managers in your leagues. 

Back in episodes 75-78 of this podcast, I went thru each position and detailed the hit rates of all skilled players drafted between 2010-2018.  Today, in episode 135, I’m revisiting the hit rates and taking a look at all skilled players once again including the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  I, will touch on draft capital and how that impacts the hit rates and have a look at the upcoming 2021 draft class and what to expect from them based on the historical data we have.

In order to review Hit rates, its important to define what qualifies as a hit.  I define at hit as any quarterback that has delivered a top-12 season at any point in their career. For the running backs, its any back that has recorded a top-12 or top-24 season during their career and the wide receivers it anyone with a WR1, WR2, or WR3 campaign.  Lastly the tight Ends are a hit if they deliver you a top-12 season at any point in their careers. In addition to hit rates, I look at players that have multiple hit seasons as well as players that achieved hit status in their rookie seasons. 

Dynasty Fantasy Managers tend to have a serious case of rookie fever at this time of the offseason, and it intensifies after the NFL draft.  We tend to like rookies a lot at this stage of the game, but once we know where they are playing, we tend to go a little overboard, myself included. With that in mind let’s jump into it.

Quarterbacks

Rookie Hit Rates 2021 Edition

Since the 2010 NFL Entry draft there have been 862 skill position players selected. Of those 862, 130 have been quarterbacks.

Of those 130 selected QBs, 23 of them or 18% have recorded a top-12 season, 15 of them have had multiple hit seasons and 8 of them have been a top-12 QB in their rookie season.  Those numbers might seem low, because frankly they are low. The amount of QBs drafted that will never produce a top-12 season are staggering.  The kicker is that most of them were pretty darn good in college and entered the draft as solid NFL prospects. The reality is NFL teams make mistakes when drafting QBs and as a result so do fantasy managers.

When you dissect the position by round you quickly id...