Sully's Two Cents

Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 2 Fantasy

Week One’s Monday Night Football matchup in Las Vegas was a crazy, highly entertaining game in which the Raiders won their home opener 33-27 over the visiting Baltimore Ravens in overtime. In Week 2, we get two NFC North divisional rivals looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses. The Detroit Lions visit Green Bay to challenge the Packers.

Hopefully you entered Week 2 looking to go 2-0, but rest assured, if you are 0-1 and looking to even your record his week, all is good. The fantasy season goes quickly but it is a marathon not a sprint. Fantasy football is a four month journey that hopefully concludes in a fantasy championship. I will be with you every step of the way with recommendations on who to start and who to sit for every Monday Night Football matchup.

With out further ado, let’s make the moves required to wrap up your Week 2 victory.

Quarterback

Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 2 Fantasy

Jared Goff – Detroit Lions – Sit

The Los Angeles Rams wanted to rid themselves of Jared Goff and his massive contract prior to the 2021 season. As a result, LA ended up sending Goff to Detroit along with a third-round pick in 2021 and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 for Matthew Stafford. That’s a lot to give up to move a player, regardless of what the deal nets you.

Goff started off his Lions career looking extremely uncomfortable, but steadily improved as the game moved along. In the end, Goff completed 38 of his 57 pass attempts for 338 yards, 3 TDs and a pick. That all added up to 29.92 points and a QB3 finish.

There will be plenty of weeks this season that Jared Goff is a starting fantasy QB based on volume alone. Week 2, however, is not one of them. On the road in Green Bay on Monday Night, despite the fact the Lions will be trailing and throwing a ton, is not the best scenario for Goff.

The Packers got rolled up last week in Jacksonville against the New Orleans Saints 38-3. The team as a whole will bounce back in this one, the defense included. I’d consider Goff in a Superflex or 2 QB league, but in a 1QB format he’s going to be on my bench.

Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – Start

Aaron Rodgers was the MVP in 2020, and Aaron Rodgers was QB34 in Week 1. That is pretty hard to fathom in a 32 team league. Rodgers finished 15/28 for 133 yards with no TDs and 2 interceptions.

From 2018-2020 Rodgers threw 11 interceptions on 1,692 pass attempts (.65%). On Sunday, he threw 2 on 28 pass attempts, (7.14%). So what do we do with Aaron Rodgers in Week 2? Well you start him, that’s what.

This isn’t a tough decision, and one that would have been seen as a no-brainer prior to a week ago. There may be some fantasy managers that are scared off by his 3.32 point outing last week and I get it, but don’t be. Nothing cures a slump like facing the Detroit Lions. Opposing QBs threw all over the Lions a season ago to the tune of 4,753 yards and 38 touchdowns. The yards were second worst and the touchdowns the worst.

Last week Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance combined for 314 passing yards and a pair of scores. So, as Aaron Rodgers would say, R-E-L-A-X, and start him with confidence.

Running Back

Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 2 Fantasy

D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions – Start

151 – Fantasy Football Start and Sit Recommendations to Win your Week 2 Matchup

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to Episode 151 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, Fantasy Football Start and Sit Recommendations to Win your Week 2 Matchup. I am your host; I am Rob Sullivan.  The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.

Well Week 1 is in the books and as you listen to this episode, we are preparing our lineups for Week 2.  Week 1 was in a lot of ways a strange week full of disappointing fantasy days.  One word of advice RELAX.

One week is not a trend it’s a outcome.  Do not overreact to a strange week.  Think of it this way of Aaron Rodgers has a bad week in Week 6 are you going to worry about him in Week 7?  Probably not, so don’t worry about him this week.  By the way in Week 6 last season at Tampa Bay, Rodgers posted 5.8 points.  The following week he went 23/34 with 4 TDs and scored 27.32 points.  From Week 7-16 he averaged 25.42 points the most of any QB during that stretch.  Get my point yet? 

Good fantasy assets are good fantasy assets for a reason, they deliver you a quality start more often than not.  Stay the course, trust your process.  The odds that any of us go 14-0 this season are remote, and the reality is who cares, it’s the last fantasy matchup of the season you need to win, not the first.

Here are some key injures and news items to chew on when making you roster calls this week;

Players already ruled out include – Will Fuller, Josh Jacobs, Odell Beckham, Tyrell Williams.  I may be missing a few so do what I do and check Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter’s tweets this evening and prior to game time.

Fuller being out may breath some like into Mike Gesicki this week, but its Jalen Waddle who I see getting a lift versus Buffalo and I like Myles Gaskin here as well.

151 – Fantasy Football Start and Sit Recommendations to Win your Week 2 Matchup

Josh Jacobs being out helps Kenyon Drake and allows Jon Gruden to dust off Peyton Barber and roll him out there for early down work.  I don’t like either against Pittsburgh this week, but in PPR, Drake should get you enough work in the passing game to be a flex type play.

OBJ sadly is out again, as this would have been an ideal matchup to fire him up.  Houston is terrible don’t let the week 1 win fool you.  In OBJ’s absence the public will move to Anthony Schwartz, and I will pivot to Donovan Peoples Jones.  Schwartz has a slight hammy injury and DPJ actually played more snaps and ran more routes that Schwartz in Week 1. 

Tyrell Williams being out saves you from starting him on Monday versus GB.  Sit everyone Detroit not named Swift, Williams and Hockenson.

For those looking for my Thursday Night start/sits I post an article every Wednesday focused on that game and I drop an article for Monday Night’s matchup on Sunday.  This pod focuses on the Sunday slate but I will refer to Monday from time to time. 

Good luck in Week 2 Heat Seekers, bring home the W.

Thank you for listening to episode 151 – Fantasy Football Start and Sit Recommendations to Win your Week 2 Matchup

For all your start/sit questions be sure to reach out to me on Twitter 

Start or Sit These IDP Players on Monday Night to Win Week 1 Fantasy

Hello everyone! What a week it has been so far! I will be walking you through the RotoHeat Monday Night Football IDP Sits and Starts this season. We will not hit every player, starting or otherwise, but I will be giving you those I have strong feels on for starting and sitting. The general mantra of “Don’t sit your studs” applies here, just like on offense, but we will look at a few players for each of the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary.

Monday Night on Week One of the NFL regular season gives us what feels like a less than a thrilling game, but as we saw already, any game can surprise us. With the devastating news the Baltimore Ravens have had as of late to their backfield, and secondary, this one may be closer than people are expecting.

With that said, let’s get into those sit and start plays!

Defensive Linemen

Start or Sit These IDP Players on Monday Night to Win Week 1 Fantasy – Maxx Crosby

Derek Wolfe & Brandon Williams – Baltimore Ravens – Sit

Calais Campbell is the only defensive line starter for the Ravens I have any interest in. Wolfe is the better of these two for most fantasy leagues, but I still have no interest in starting him. For solo tackels, 38 (Wolfe) and 35 (Williams) are the most they have had over a single year in their careers. When you added in that across their seasons their career bests are 9 TFL and 7 sacks (Wolfe) and 9 TFL 2 sacks (Williams), neither is worthy of a weekly play. Sit both comfortably, and if you are desperate, Wolfe is the better of the two.

Maxx Crosby – Las Vegas Raiders – Start

Maxx Crosby (2019 4th round pick) had a great rookie year that took many by surprise, only to disappoint last year. The Raiders defensive line was a mess last year and they spent a lot revamp it this year. Crosby will be a starter once again, but won’t be the main pass-rushing focus for the offense, as Yannick Ngakoue signed to start across from him. Yannick is more of the big-play threat, as he will get sacks and TFLs but not tackles. Crosby will get you both, and as the player that has better fundamentals and tackling upside, give me Crosby as a defensive line start in the game.

Linebackers

Start or Sit These IDP Players on Monday Night to Win Week 1 Fantasy – Patrick Queen

All – Las Vegas Raiders – Sit

This linebacking group is a mess. One or two of them may end up having a nice week. I do not want to guess which one it will.

Denzel Perryman, Corey Littleton, KJ Wright, Nick Kwiatkoski. All have had valuable fantasy seasons and been worthy starters before. But then throw in rookie Divine Deablo you will get playing time and you have five players across three starting linebackers.

Wright (SLB) and Littleton (WLB) appear to be clear starters on the depth chart, with Perryman and Kwiatkoski are listed as co-MLB starters. I know teams play a lot of hybrid formations these days, and really starting depth charts on defense mean little. But this one mess I am not diving into unless forced to. Let this one play out

If you are in very deep leagues, Wright and Kwiatkoski (in that order) would be my favorites if forced into any of them.

Patrick Queen – Baltimore Ravens – Start
...

Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 1 Fantasy

The first Monday Night Football game of the season pits the Baltimore Ravens against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Week 1 is just the beginning. Fantasy Football is a four month journey, that hopefully concludes in a Fantasy Championship. I will be with you every step of the way, with recommendations on who to start and who to sit for every Monday Night matchup.

With out further ado, let’s make the moves required to wrap up your week one victory.

Quarterback

Monday Night Football Start/Sit Week 1

Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders – Sit

Derek Carr is a better QB than I believe he gets credit for. Carr had one of the best seasons of his career in 2020, throwing for over 4100 yards, 27 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions.

A lot has changed in Las Vegas since last season, and it mostly changed for the worst. Nelson Agholor who meshed well with Carr, has left via free agency, and the Raiders completely rebuilt their offensive line making it worse in the process.

The good news is Darren Waller remains and the addition of Kenyan Drake will help as well. There will be plenty of weeks that you should start Derek Carr, week one however isn’t one of them.

The Baltimore Ravens were third best in the league a year ago versus the opposing team QB. They gave up on 16.7 points per game to the position. Entering 2021, The Ravens’ defense is stacked. The secondary is among the NFL’s best, and the D-line is the same one that stuffed Derrick Henry in the playoffs. The pass rush might be the weakness of this defense, but in this one versus the Raiders make shift O-line it will be just fine. Sit Derek Carr on Monday night.

Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – Start

Telling you to start Lamar Jackson seem silly, if you roster Lamar, you are starting him period, regardless of matchup.

This offseason the Ravens focused on adding pass catching weapons for Lamar. They attempted to sign Kenny Golladay, and Juju Smith-Shuster, and landed Sammy Watkins. They drafted Rashod Bateman, and Tylan Wallace. The additions are beat up for the most part, Sammy Watkins has missed time, Bateman is on IR and Marquise Brown is dealing with a soft tissue injury.

Despite the depleted WR core, Lamar still possess to give you starting level fantasy QB play with his legs alone. Initially this offseason I felt as though Lamar would run less often in 2021. The season ending injuries to J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill has changed my mind. Lamar is my QB2 this week start him with absolute confidence.

Running Back

Monday Night Football Start/Sit Week 1

Josh Jacobs / Kenyan Drake – Las Vegas Raiders Sit

Josh Jacobs ADP took a beating this offseason, and if you added him to you fnatasy roster in drafts this season, I believe you got yourself a nice back at a great value.

Kenyan Drake arrives via free agency after an up and down season in Arizona a year ago.

Their O-line is weak, and these two backs are certain to share the workload in the Vegas backfield. I anticipate Jacobs to be used more in the run game, and Drake to be used more in the passing game. When they enter the red zone, I have no clue how they will be used.

The Ravens run defense is legit, limiting opposing teams RBs to to a combined 20.7 points per game last season.

150 - Navigating the Early Weeks of the 2021 Fantasy Football Season 68

150 – Navigating the Early Weeks of the 2021 Fantasy Football Season

Whether it is a redraft league or a dynasty league you participate in the first four weeks should be treated like boxers treat the first round. Get a feel for your roster and your league. Trust your draft and let it play out. Don’t get too caught up in matchups early in the season. You likely drafted based off of rankings, or ADP, and if you did barring injury you will be fine in the first four weeks of the season.

Strange things happens all the time in fantasy football, and it is important to note that it happens to all of us. Don’t overreact to Ezekiel Elliott’s poor performance on Thursday, and also don’t overreact to Rob Gronkowski’s exceptional performance.

If you participate in a Guillotine league,(and you should, it is in my opinion the best format fantasy has to offer), well a Guillotine league is a different duck all together. For those unaware of the Guillotine format, it is an 18-team league in which the lowest scoring team each week is chopped, and their entire roster hits the waiver wire. If you started Zeke and got 5.9 PPR points, or Gio and got 3.2 points or worse started OJ Howard and got none, you should be concerned. Not all is lost but you certainly can’t be comfortable entering Sunday.

Start your best players, likely the ones you drafted in the first 8-10 rounds and you’ll be fine. Be active on the league’s waiver wire and most of all have some fun. This is a game that many of us, myself included take to seriously.

Thank you for listening to episode 150 – Navigating the Early Weeks of the 2021 Fantasy Football Season

For all your start/sit questions be sure to reach out to me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully.

For more great Fantasy Football content, follow RotoHeat on Twitter, subscribe to our website, and YouTube Channel. Engage with 2,100+ passionate dynasty managers and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our ROTOHEAT – Dynasty Fantasy Football Community.

*

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 146 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. 

Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

Today, we wrap up the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North

Player I Am Buying

Gus Edwards- Overall ADP 126 RB41

Many see Gus Edwards as nothing but a back-up running back. I see a back with flex worthy fantasy relevance. Gus Edwards since signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2018 has posted RB53, RB52, and RB37 seasons.

Now those RB finishes likely haven’t gotten your attention, and I get that. What if I tell you that after the Ravens started making Mark Ingram a healthy scratch in week 7, that Edwards was RB25 the remainder of the season averaging 10 PPR points a game. In addition to that he had a near 50% of touches out of the backfield as well. The Ravens like Gus the Bus, and brought him back this offseason as a restricted free agent. J.K. Dobbins is the No.1 back in Baltimore to be clear, but Edwards is going to have a stand alone role, at RB44 he is an easy buy.

Player I Am Selling

Marquise Brown – Overall ADP 117 WR49

I know I mentioned that my buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. It is true but when it comes to Marquise Brown its a easy sell because I don’t like either.

Brown has only topped 50 receiving yards in nine of 30 regular season games he’s played, and is a member of a very heavy run first offense. The Ravens finished 32nd in the league in passing yards in 2020 with 2919. Brown in his two seasons has fantasy finishes of WR46 and WR36. WR36 in 2020 on the surface makes him a buy compared to his current ADP, but upon further review, he had one game where he was targeted 9 times or more and after week 11 he was WR40.

The Ravens drafting two wide receivers and signing Sammy Watkins this offseason tells you all you need to know about how they feel about Brown. He is probably appropriately priced at WR47, but he is near undraftable IMO as there is basically no upside.

Take the Flyer

Rashod Bateman – Overall ADP 218 WR75

So after trash talking the Ravens passing game I am here to tell you to take the flyer on Rashod Bateman. Rashod Bateman was the Ravens’ first selection in the 2021 draft and should instantly compete with Marquise Brown to be the team’s No. 1 receiver.

Bateman’s best value is in Dynasty, where he’s a high upside bench receiver worth a rookie pick early in the second round. The Ravens’ low pass volume will make it tough for Bateman to contribute to your Fantasy team in 2021, but if he beats out Brown, he could be a boom-or-bust No. 3 receiver.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 146 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. 

Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South

Player I Am Buying

Calvin Ridley – Overall ADP 20 WR6

I have been pounding the RotoHeat table for three seasons for you all to add Calvin Ridley to your fantasy rosters. In those three seasons Ridley had delivered WR22, WR27, and WR5 finishes. So, 2021 is no different despite the high price tag, except I am pounding the table even harder this season.

With Julio Jones off to Tennessee, Calvin Ridley is the unquestionable No.1 WR in Atlanta. Calvin Ridley has appeared in 44 NFL games, 36 with Julio in the offense and 8 without Jones in the offense. In his 36 games as the compliment to Jones, Ridley has averaged approximately 6 targets, 4 receptions, 70 yards and .67 touchdowns per game. In his 8 starts with Julio on the sidelines his averages jump to 11 targets, 7 catches, 114 yards and .25 touchdowns. Calvin Ridley has WR1 overall upside and he is an absolute buy in the middle of round two.

Player I Am Selling

Kyle Pitts – Overall ADP 51 TE4

If anyone is a regular follower of my content you’ll likely find this somewhat surprising. To be clear I am still a huge fan of Kyle Pitts. He is my top ranked rookie this season in my 1 QB rankings. When it comes to redraft however I think we need to pump the breaks.

Fantasy tends to hate rookie Tight Ends. I know Pitts is a generational talent and not like any other tight end we have seen enter the league, I get it, hell I have been screaming it since January. This doesn’t change the fact that only two tight ends drafted since 2010 have finished as a top-12 TE in their rookie season. The fact is no matter how good he is the odds are stacked against him.

1st round drafted tight ends since 2010 have averaged 36 receptions, 427 yards, and 3 touchdowns as rookies. 98.6 PPR points and a TE26 finish. I have Pitts ranked as my TE5, 58th overall, which is quite possibly be too high as well. His current ADP is not outrageous but its basically in a range that requires him to be the most successful rookie Tight End in league history to justify drafting him here. That was my bold take earlier this offseason, and it is a possibility but I am going to have to bet against it and sell.

Take the Flyer

Qadree Ollison – Overall ADP 324 RB95

The Atlanta Falcons appear to be rolling into 2021 with Mike Davis as their No.1 RB. This isn’t the worst thing in the world but Mike Davis is anything put a proven No.1 RB. In his six year career his high in touches is 224 which he had last season. Prior to that it was 146 in 2018 his final season in Seattle.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 147 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West

Player I Am Buying

Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 76 WR32

Jerry Jeudy was a WR that I wanted a lot of shares of in 2020. In 2021 nothing has changed except my appetite to roster him has become even more elevated. Jerry Jeudy ranked sixth among wideouts with 1,529 air yards, sixth in receiving average with 16.5, and 19th with 5.46 yards after catch per reception as a rookie with rather horrific quarterback play. In year two I expect him to take the next step.

The haters will point to his 46% catch rate, his 3.3 receptions per game and his 14 drops. None of those stats concern me. Jeudy seeing 113 targets as a rookie is a good thing, I get he dropped 14 passes but Tyreek Hill dropped 11, Alvin Kamara 10, and DK Metcalf 9. Funny we don’t see folks fading them. Jeudy is an elite route runner that will continue to get open, Courtland Sutton is back to take some attention off Jeudy, and teh QB in Denver will be much better than a season ago. In the sixth round I love the value that Jerry Jeudy is, and I will be buying.

Player I Am Selling

Javonte Williams – Overall ADP 68 RB28

Javonte Williams is likely going to be among the most popular rookies taken in Fantasy drafts with Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. I have no problem with drafting Williams, in fact he is one of the rookies that I would like to roster in redraft this season. My concern is the price not the player.

Williams scored 19 touchdowns and ran for over 1,400 total yards in a split backfield last season at North Carolina. That experience sharing touches will help him deal with Melvin Gordon in 2021. The split however I believe with favor Gordon, especially early in the season. If you draft Williams, you’re hoping, that he takes over the touches in this backfield and that Gordon fades sooner than later. Williams has the higher upside but also brings with him, a lower floor. The recent injury to Melvin Gordon, might help Williams but it will also lead to an elevated ADP. I am happy to select Williams in the mid to late six round. The problem is he will be long gone by then. That is a situation I am comfortable with and I will sell him at his current round five value.

Take the Flyer

Drew Lock – Overall ADP 298 QB35

I like Drew Lock much more than others. Is he a week in week out fantasy starter in a twelve team league, no he is not. He is also not a 35th ranked QB. Lock played in 5 games as a rookie, completed 64% of his passes for 1020 yards 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not world beating numbers but over 16 games that is a pace of 3264 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTS.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC North

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 146 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the NFC North.

Chicago Bears

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – NFC North.

Player I Am Buying

Darnell Mooney – Overall ADP 125 WR40

As a rookie, Darnell Mooney established himself as the No. 2 receiver in Chicago. Mooney a 5th round selection in the 2020 draft, finished his season with 152.1 PPR points and as the WR50. Mooney is a solid sleeper candidate for 2021. Improved quarterback play could get his low catch percentage (62.2%) up, and the departure of Anthony Miller (76 targets) could lead to increased volume in addition to the increased quality of the targets.

In Matt Nagy’s three seasons in Chicago, Allen Robinson is the only receiver to earn more than 100 targets. That is a stat that likely doesn’t change in 2021, but we should expect the Bears to be a pass heavy team, with a questionable offensive line and a defense that is no longer the force it once was. Darnell Mooney in the back of round ten is great value and I am buying him there all day long.

Player I Am Selling

David Montgomery – Overall ADP 30 RB16

I am a David Montgomery truther, simply put I am a fan. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Monty put my fantast team on his back on route to a RotoHeat 96 team fantasy league championship a season ago. Any chance I get to bring that up, its going to happen.

In Montgomery’s breakout 2020 season, he was an easy top-10 running back in all formats. With the return of Tarik Cohen, and the addition of Damien Williams there’s enough uncertainty that I see him more as an early fourth-round selection. Without Cohen, Montgomery saw his role in the passing game blossom, more than doubling his catches per game. With Cohen eventually coming back and Williams there I see the pass catching coming down thus limiting the ceiling for Montgomery. If Matt Nagy assumes pay calling duties once again, I might pass on Montgomery all together.

Take the Flyer

Cole Kmet – Overall ADP 202 TE25

I was a fan of Cole Kmet last season as a rookie. The reality of this league is that it is really tough for rookie tight ends to be fantasy relevant. Only two tight ends have been a top-12 TE as a rookie. Adding to Kmet’s challenges last season was the presence of Jimmy Graham.

With Graham still on the roster, Kmet profiles as a dart throw towards the end of your draft. Kmet’s emergence at the end of 2020 saw him earn 30 targets over the team’s final five regular season games. But even in that stretch he was outscored by Jimmy Graham and 18 other tight ends. I believe we are a year out from fantasy relevance for Kmet making him a dynasty asset I want to buy. In case I am wrong,

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC South

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 145 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC South.

Houston Texans

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC South

Player I Am Buying

Brandin Cooks – Overall ADP 88 WR36

Sorting through the Houston Texans depth chart for a player I want to buy is not the easiest task I have had. This team looks to be the favorite to be picking first overall next spring. There are holes all over this team on both sides of the ball. With that said, Brandin Cooks jumps out to me as the obvious buy candidate.

I get that Tyrod Taylor or perhaps even Davis Mills will be the Texans QB this season. I also am fully aware that is likely not a good thing. Here is the deal the worst passing offense in the NFL last season (Baltimore) had 257 completions for 2,919 yards. As bad as Houston likely is, there will be some offensive production and I believe most will flow thru Brandin Cooks. When healthy he is a legit NFL talent. In his seven NFL seasons, Cooks has a top-12, four top-24, and a top-36 season on his resume. Drafting him at WR36 in round 7 is a value add, and I am buying.

Player I Am Selling

David Johnson – Overall ADP 84 RB32

I have been a David Johnson fan and supporter for years. That support ends here. Johnson has shown in recent seasons that the burst he once had is gone. The offensive line he is playing behind certainly doesn’t help much either. Outside of Laremy Tunsil, there is really nothing there.

Adding to my dislike is the Texans depth chart. Joining Johnson in the backfield in Houston this season is Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. I don’t really like any of them and I certainly don’t see any giving us any relevant fantast production on a weekly basis. I am passing on all Texans’ running backs this season and if I have to roster one it would be Lindsay who has an ADP of 160 and RB49.

Take the Flyer

Nico Collins – Overall ADP 272 WR83

Simply put, Houston almost certainly will have to throw often to have a sniff in any of their seventeen games in 2021. If you have to roster a Texan, I would suggest it is in the passing game. Enter Nico Collins.

Collins college quarterbacks failed to take advantage of the mismatch he presents and the Michigan’s team identity certainly wasn’t feeding their receivers. Collins is a breakout candidate and someone I expect will be a much better professional player than a collegiate one. Collins has size and a second gear needed to gain separation and win the battle on contested catches. Collins is more of a dynasty league target, but he’s currently priced as undrafted and he is another player that should exceed his ADP with ease.

Indianapolis Colts