By The Bayesian Conspiracy
A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.
We discuss Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu by Ozy Brennan Other Links: Doocy asking about AI doom at the White House 0:00:38 – Feedback/Thanks DC Rats! 0:01:30 – Guild of the Rose Update 0:03:36 – Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu 0:43:48 – Less Wrong Posts 1:16:01 – Thank...
An AI risk argument that resonates with NYTimes readers
Probot joins to discuss Chatbot convinces Belgian to commit suicide De Standaard
Matt comes on to blast Eneasz with his LW post The Parable of the King and the Random Process
Matt and Eneasz discuss Katja Grace’s Let’s think about slowing down AI Other Links Bayes Blast 1 – In Defense of Chatbot Romance The Bayesian Conspiracy 182 – The Birth and Death of Sydney (Bing AI) 0:00:45 – Guild of the Rose Update 0:01:44 – Let’s...
Steven blasts Eneasz with Spencer Greenberg’s description of a huge problem in science publication. Links The short post Steven took his notes from A Clearer Thinking podcast episode where they discuss this Spencer as a guest on Two Psychologists, Four Beers
The Waluigi Effect
Duncan Sabien on dynamics [can] arise if you have people nudging in that direction (also thanks to Liam from 2 Rash 2 Unadvised podcast for intro)
My Model Of EA Burnout
We discuss Microsoft’s new Bing search chatbot – Sydney. It received a wave of media coverage due to erratic behavior, before being neutered by Microsoft. A dive into its behavior, human responses, and implications. Links The Birth and Death of Sydney “Sydney Is...
We discuss Zvi’s How to Bounded Distrust with Wesley Fenza. Wes is from The Mind Killer! Other links: Bounded Distrust On Bounded Distrust The Media Very Rarely Lies + followup + 2nd followup People Will Sometimes Just Lie About You Matt Yglesia on Why You Can’t Trust...
In Defense of Chatbot Romance
We have some follow-up questions to Brian, including how to weigh utils, how moral claims to an area can be adjudicated, crime, use of home ownership as an investment as government policy, eviction law, and more! For the full episode, subscribe...
We discuss the YIMBY movement in California, and how Brian Hanlon & co. got real legislative change happening. Primary Links CA YIMBY Contact Brian – [email protected] Great article on SB827 including interview with Brian The Welcoming Neighbor Network Other Links George Carlin on NIMBY CARLA is now CalHDF SF...
Worried about AGI running amok in the near future? John Wentworth thinks we can align AI. In 10-15 years. With greater than 50/50 probability. And he has a plan! We discuss The Plan, its merits, and how it has progressed over...
We discuss Out To Get You by Zvi. A lot of clouds get yelled at. 2:55 – Main Topic: Getting Got 1:08:48 – LW posts 1:18:55 – Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Our Patreon page, your support is most...
Matt Freeman gives a primer in how to uses Bayesian decision making in normal life, via decision trees. We also discuss utilitarianism, the Guild of the Rose, and recent AI advances. We are now in the early singularity. Guild of the...
Aella comes on the show to tell us what the heck Circling is and why we should do it. 0:01:21 How Many Rationalists Are There? 0:04:40 Circling 1:09:42 LW Posts 1:41:35 Thank the Patron! Aella’s Blog The Patreon bit where we discuss The Murder Button Circle Anywhere Authentic...
David from The Mind Killer joins us. We got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. Afterwards David helps us out with personal finance. 0:00:00 Intro 0:02:08 The Sequences Now Formatted...
While recording the next episode we got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. We decided to break it out into a separate segment so it can air while...
Wes and David from The Mind Killer show up for a special cross-over episode. We discuss How Stewart Made Tucker Listen to The Mind Killer
Matt Freeman returns to discuss General Artificial Intelligence timelines, and why they are short. Our primary text is: Why I think strong general AI is coming soon Other links: “Let’s think step by step” is all you need NVIDIA A100 info The Mind Killer AI suggested...
Kerry discusses virtue ethics with us, and how one is to live. After Virtue, by Alasdair MacIntyre Pareto efficiency at Wikipedia, slightly less dense Pareto Improvement at Investopedia Our 23rd episode – Desirism with Alonzo Fyfe The 12 Virtues of Rationality I See Dead Kids 0:00:00...
Tailcalled gives us the down low on a variation of the popularly discussed (if not that widely liked) transgender typology – autogynephilia (or AGP). Unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, Jace was only on for part of the episode and our...
Eneasz drops a primer on Georgist Land Value Taxes. All increases in productivity will be capture by rising rents for as long as mankind exists, unless we find a way to prevent landlords from capturing all the benefits of rising...
Steven and Eneasz discuss the latest timeline shifts regarding the advent of superhuman general intelligence. Then in the LW posts we got greatly sidetracked by politics (stupid mind-killer!). Links: Two-year update on my personal AI timelines on LessWrong Robert Wiblin on kissing your...
We speak with Levi/Ferb, learning about labor law in the USA. Turns out it’s not what we thought. Links: What would a general strike look like today? Biden intervenes in railroad contract to block strike Truckers strike at Port of Oakland Taft–Hartley Act A People’s History...
A Jugaad is like a hack that combines a new thing that doesn’t work anymore with an old thing that sorta worked, as a temporary solution. Now do it for Ethics. (note: due to technical issue, the last 3 minutes of...
Luck is the most power force in the universe, and leaving power untapped is not very rational. Searching for Outliers How to Get Lucky Also mentioned: Feedback – It’s Probably Not Lithium The audio version of It’s Probably Not Lithium from the LessWrong Curated Podcast The...
Dunbar’s Number is both the cause of and downfall of Human Civilization Low-Status degrades your health Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything Mentioned in the follow-ups section: Lithium suspect? AIs threaten proof-of-work The Mind Killer podcast 0:00:34 Feedback 0:11:58 Main Topic pt1 Status in Dunbar Spheres 0:46:37 Main...
Katrina is back!! We talk about how pregnancy isn’t super easy, and is borderline body horror. War In The Womb Expecting Better book Pregnant Women Are Smug Racial Differences in Maternal Mortality How Pregnancy Changes the Brain, and PubMed version Clown Registry Still A Good Mom 1:32:08 LW...
Étienne Fortier-Dubois argues that Effective Altruism has an Aesthetics problem But first! Some extended listener feedback Nuclear War is A-OK if you’re Russian State TV Three Bodies At Mitani A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows 00:42 Abortion Clarification & Jace’s Addition 14:15 ...
Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a...
Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall...
Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and...
We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15 Cryonics Concerns 49:21 Theses On Sleep 1:23:01 LW posts 1:50:16 Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The...
The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World...
We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism. 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically...
We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s...
We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium! Links to become a patron of this group,...
This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl. Homepage at Knowingless, also has a substack.
The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has...
A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a...
Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the...
We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast! 7:23 – LW Posts discussion begins 53:39 – Main Topic begins 2:01:40 – Thank the...
We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter & LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey...
We discuss Sasha Chapin’s “Your Intelligent, Conscientious In-group Has Bad Social Norms Too” Main Topic begins at 45:46 Other items mentioned: The Simple Truth – Eliezer’s short story about The Sheep Counter Keep Your Identity Small – by Paul Graham, not Hanson! Otters vs Possums...
We discuss the book The Procrastination Equation as summarized by Luke in How to Beat Procrastination The audio is rough at first, we fixed it after 8 minutes. Other items discussed include: Bezos in a Mecha The Goth Chicken Whether the King’s English was good...
We speak with Jason Crawford (twitter), from The Roots of Progress. Interview begins at 44:25. Posts discussed include: Iron: From mythical to mundane The various Why Did It Take So Long For (X), and specifically Cotton Gin, Bicycle, and Threshing Machine Does invention come...
Matt Freeman returns to talk about Decision Theory, and the discusion ranges far afield. Matt is from The Guild of the Rose, which we had a recent episode about. You can see his Decision Theory Course videos here. Scott Alexander on All...