The Brookings Cafeteria

“A lot of the issues that we focus on as crises on a daily basis—I think particularly of Syria—they are certainly crises in their own right,” says Jeremy Shapiro. “But to my mind the failure to deal with them does have a lot to do with the consequences of the breakdown in international order and the breakdown in the international capacity to create order.” Jeremy Shapiro, fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, gives his view on the top foreign policy issues of the day and in the 2016 presidential election. “The interesting thing about terrorism is that it is never, at least for advanced societies, a direct threat in any existential way, despite what many of our politicians say,” argues Shapiro in this podcast, “What can threaten a nation like ours is that in the process of responding to an attack like in San Bernardino or in Paris that we destroy the things that are most precious to us, like our freedoms, like our civil liberties, that we engage in foreign policy adventures in order to try to make ourselves feel more secure and more safe that actually erode our power.” Also in this podcast: The final installment of the Paris climate conference series by Bruce Jones, vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings. And also stay tuned for our regular economic update with David Wessel, senior fellow and director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Order from Chaos: Foreign policy in a troubled world 'What U.S. Foreign Policy Really Needs Is...' Suzanne Maloney talks U.S.-Iran relations, the Iran nuclear deal, and the future of Iran How Russia and America make the same mistakes in Syria How not to overreact to ISIS The perils of "French Islam": France’s misguided response to the Paris attacks _____________________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Richard Bush, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and holder of the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies and also the Michael H. Armacost Chair, talks about Hong Kong’s relationship to China, the umbrella movement of 2014, and the future of democracy in Hong Kong. “First of all,” Bush says, “there is the continuing challenge of how you make the Hong Kong economy competitive in a global economy that is … constantly changing technologically.” “On the political side, I personally believe that Hong Kong would benefit from having competitive elections for senior leaders. … But elections in and of themselves won’t solve all the governance problems that Hong Kong has.” Also in this podcast: Listen to with the first installment of “Steve Hess Stories,” in which Senior Fellow Emeritus Stephen Hess explains how he came to write a best-selling book, America's Political Dynasties, while serving in the Army. And part four of our Paris climate conference series with Fellow Philip Wallach. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: The return of the Taiwan issue to U.S.-China relations Why Hong Kong’s next election really matters Hong Kong: The next round on universal suffrage What’s at stake at the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue? Hong Kong government announces electoral reform details What does China having the largest GDP mean? _____________________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Jonathan Rothwell, fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, tells us what’s missing in conventional college ranking systems like that of U.S. News & World Report. And using President Obama’s new college score card, Rothwell talks about his new value added approach to rankings. “I don’t actually think we need more college ranking systems. I think we need better ranking systems,” argues Rothwell. The “problems with U.S. News and some of the conventional rankings,” he continues, include “way too much emphasis on selectivity. Non-selective schools have no chance to ever make it towards the top of the rankings. And as a result there are a lot of hidden gems out there … that are providing great outcomes for [their] students.” Also in this podcast: In our Coffee Break segment, meet a scholar who grew up in Vancouver, the son of World War II refugees, visiting fellow Alar Olljum. And stay tuned for part three of our Paris climate conference series as Senior Fellow Adele Morris discusses the role of carbon pricing in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Using earnings data to rank colleges: A value-added approach updated with College Scorecard data Toward an economic mobility ranking of U.S. colleges Understanding the College Scorecard Skills, success, and why your choice of college matters Is it me or my college? These rankings will help you find out Alumni from these colleges (almost) always pay their debts In ‘value-added’ college rankings, these public schools step up ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Daniel Byman, an expert on counterterrorism and Middle East Security, and research director for the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, explains what we know and don’t know about the ISIS terrorist attack in Paris and whether he thinks ISIS will strike the U.S. Also, part two of our Paris climate talk series on new technology from Mark Muro, senior fellow and policy director of the Metropolitan Policy Program. “The real danger to me is not taking care of the refugee problem,” argues Byman, “If these refugees are trapped in the Middle East, if they’re in these huge camps where there are no opportunities, if they’re not integrated into host societies, over time we’re going to see the development of a terrorism and radicalization problem among large numbers of refugees.” Also in this podcast: “What’s Happening in Congress” with special guest Molly Reynolds, a fellow in Governance Studies. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: What do the Paris attacks tell us about foreign fighters? Five things to know about the Paris attack A look at the policy options in war torn Syria (video) Do Syrian refugees pose a terrorism threat? The believer: How an introvert became the leader of the Islamic State Five ways to make innovation 'sticky' Green banking goes local ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Timmons Roberts, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and Ittleson Professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at Brown University discusses climate change and the upcoming global climate talks in Paris. “Scientists are telling us,” Roberts says, “that about 2 degrees Celsius is about the highest limit to stay safe... And in fact right now we’re just under 1 degree Celsius of warming and we’re already seeing these impacts of wildfires, droughts, heat waves, flooding, sea level rise, melting Greenland icesheets and Antarctica being potentially destabilized. There are great risks we’re running at 1 degree. What is it going to be like at 2?” Also hear from Senior Fellow Audrey Singer as she discusses a new report on immigrants and their integration into American society. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Climate and Development Lab (Brown University) 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) Why we (still) need the UN to deliver on climate change? Obama walking a razor's edge in Alaska on climate change Power in a warming world The Integration of Immigrants into American Society ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

This week, Elaine Kamarck talks presidential primaries, congressional primaries, and the problems facing our current nominating system. She also offers predictions on the likely GOP and Democratic presidential nominees. Listen to find out who she’s tapped to win. “Political parties are incredibly important,” says Kamarck, “They shape Americans’ behaviors. They are the best predictor of how Americans are going to vote. And there are in fact real and meaningful differences between the parties. You can’t really have democracies without political parties. Political parties are the sort of essence of democracy, but they’re also the part of democracy that voters love to hate.” Kamarck is a senior fellow and founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management. She is also author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about how America Nominates its Presidential Candidates. “The primary method of nominating candidates increases polarization,” argues Elaine. “The place that you see it affect behavior most dramatically is in congressional primaries. … So what happens is the most extreme voters tend to dominate and they pull the Democrats to the left and Republicans to the right. What a surprise then when they get to Congress and nobody can agree on anything?” Also hear David Wessel give his regular economic update, this time on tax reform proposals from the campaign trail. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: The GOP Debates: Can any Republican beat the celebrity candidates? The illusive appeal of the non-politician A new kind of politics, not Benghazi, doomed McCarthy Speaker's bid Why Speaker Boehner can't govern: Primaries, parties, privacy, and pork Increasing turnout in congressional primaries In praise of old fashioned politics ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Marvin Kalb, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and former CBS News Correspondent, discusses his new book "Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine and the New Cold War." “I think since 1991 at the end of the Soviet Union, the end of Communism as a global philosophy, Ukrainians have come to understand that they are an independent culture,” explains Kalb. “The shame of it is that though they are, they are locked into a history which may deny them the full expression of their politics and their culture. And they can’t escape that; it is simply a part of their history.” “When I started doing the research for this book,” Kalb says, “one of the things that I did was to go back and read notes of the classes I used to do fifty and sixty years ago as a graduate student. … And I realized, rather quickly I’m happy to say, that unless you went back a thousand years, truly, you would not understand why Putin is doing what he’s doing now either in Crimea, or Ukraine, or even in Syria. You couldn’t because the thousand years gives you the perspective and the reasoning and the psychological backdrop for current actions that may confound the West, may confound the president of the United States, but they don’t confound Russian nationalists, people who have been raised on this history.” Also in this podcast: Get to know Matteo Garavoglia, a dual German and Italian citizen and an Italy Program Fellow, during our “Coffee Break.” ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Read more about Marvin’s book “Imperial Gamble” Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin Putin’s Crimean gamble: Russia, Ukraine, and the new Cold War Russia’s intervention in Syria: Protracting an already endless conflict Really, actually avoiding a new Cold War Stumbling towards conflict with Russia? Putin’s deceptive pause: What are Russia’s next steps in Ukraine? ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Homi Kharas and John McArthur discuss their Ending Rural Hunger project, designed to help the world achieve one important facet of the “No Hunger” Sustainable Development Goal. “[P]robably about ¾ of the [food insecurity] problem that we’re dealing with globally is actually in rural areas,” Kharas says in this podcast. McArthur explains, “I think the first thing to note is that the world is making progress. So roughly speaking, undernourishment as a share of the world is dropping by about 1 percent every three years.” Also in this episode, John Hudak gives his regular “What’s happening in Congress” update. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Ending Rural Hunger (Report) Why 17 is a Beautiful Number 15 Million Success Stories Under the Millennium Development Goals I expect great outcomes from the Sustainable Development Goals The promise and pitfalls of partnerships in tackling extreme poverty around the world Dispatch from Italy: Ending Rural Hunger United Nations: Sustainable Development Goals A Note from Our Guests: Homi and John are very grateful to the full team that contributed to the Ending Rural Hunger project. The report itself was prepared by a group in Brookings’s Global Economy and Development program, which also included: Geoffrey Gertz, Sinead Mowlds, and Lorenz Noe, assisted by Julie Biau, Soumya Chattopadhyay, Krista Rasmussen and Madelyn Swift. The report design and interactive website were developed in collaboration with Data Act Lab, including: Alexandra Silfverstolpe, Daniel Lapidus, Mikael Göransson, Niklas Beinhoff, Martin Lindbratt, Tobias Strollo and Arkadiusz Mytych. ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

Fellows Natan Sachs and Khaled Elgindy from the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings debate the challenges facing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. “In the long term, [Hamas] is not where peace lies… What doomed the disengagement in Gaza was the rise of Hamas and the continuation of the war from it… This reality, where war continues from a territory that is evacuated is perhaps the biggest [factor], except for the second intifada,… that has made Israelis skeptical of peace,” explains Natan. “The other two trends on the ground are deepening Israeli occupation…You would expect if you are moving towards a two state solution…that there would be movement towards disengaging from that reality rather than deepening it. But it is in fact deepening. There are more settlers, more construction. And that is a source of anger for Palestinians who see more and more of their land being swallowed up… and their hopes for an independent state sort of vanishing before their eyes,” says Khaled in this podcast. Also in this podcast: "Coffee Break" with Molly Reynolds. Coffee Break is a new segment where we ask scholars at Brookings six questions to get to know them and their work more personally. ______________________________________________ Show Notes: Palestinian political crisis deepens with collapse of unity government The end of the peace process: What comes next? Abbas’ UN speech: What it means and what it doesn’t The new politics of religion and gender in Israel Israel and the United States: A dialogue of the deaf Dilemmas of the Israeli-Palestinian impasse ______________________________________________ Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].

“To use some of the time honored clichés, ‘The enemy may get a vote too.’ Or the Bolshevik line, ‘You may not have an interest in war, but war may have an interest in you.’ I paraphrase that to say we may not, at the moment, have an interest in counterinsurgency and stabilization missions, but they may have an interest in us… we can’t be like the ostrich putting our head in the sand just because we’re tired of these kinds of wars. They might come back, whether we like it or not.” says Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon about his new book, The Future of Land Warfare. After learning about the various scenarios that might necessitate land warfare, we’ll hear Russ Whitehurst, senior fellow in Economic Studies and Editor of the Evidence Speaks project, discuss the cost of universal Pre-K. “The question is: what should the nation or states do to increase participation rates to a universal level?” Whitehurst asks in this project. “And what I’ve found by looking at the evidence is that actually people haven’t provided very good evidence on how many children are presently served.” Also, stay tuned to hear expert David Wessel update us on one of the nation’s most alarming economic problems – wage stagnation. Show Notes: Read more about O'Hanlon's book The Future of Land Warfare The future of the U.S. army Toward a ‘‘Reaganov’’ Russia: Russian Security Policy after Putin Obama the Carpenter: The President's National Security Legacy What role will evidence play in the 2016 election? Do we already have universal preschool? Why public school vouchers could have bi-partisan appeal Hutchins Roundup: wealth inequality, student borrowing, and more Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen on Stitcher, and send feedback email to [email protected].