2024 is a year of elections, and in recent weeks there have been some deep shifts in the politics of emerging market economies. In this episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Eimear Daly, Alvaro Vivanco and Aditya Sharma to discuss the FX impacts of elections in India, South Africa and Mexico.

This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024.

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This week Eimear Daly and guest Alvaro Vivanco discuss the fortunes of emerging market currencies. They look ahead to the election in South Africa, and how this may affect the rand, plus they discuss the situation in Europe, including the Hungarian forint.

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This episode was recorded on 28 May 2024.

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In this US dollar special, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to discuss the latest data affecting the dollar. Recent inflation news was softer than had been feared by some, but were other economic prints a step in the right direction? And how many more signs of a soft landing might the Fed need  in order to cut rates? 

Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available. This episode was recorded on 16 May 2024. 

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Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the longer-term prospects for GBP following the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold this week. They also delve into our latest views on FX heading into a critical US inflation print. Finally, they share their views on the outlook for SEK in light of the Riksbank's decision to cut rates, and consider the relationship between US rates and volatility as a driver of JPY. 
  
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NB: This was recorded on 9 May 2024. 
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Join host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson as they focus on the fortunes of major currencies. For sterling the dominant market factor appears to be yield ahead of likely rate cuts, while the Fed's base case is for cuts later in the year – amid some talk even of hikes. They also discuss Norway and Sweden, and give a quick update on Japan.   

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This episode was recorded on 2 May 2024.
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After a week of historical lows for the yen, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield speculate on whether the Bank of Japan has recently intervened to defend the currency. FX markets seem to think so, but what other signals are markets reading?  

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This episode was recorded on 29 April 2024. 

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Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the impact of rising Israel/Iran tensions on FX markets, touching on potential for further escalation, the prospect of reduced oil supplies, and drivers of oil supply and demand outside of geopolitics. 
  
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NB: This was recorded on 18 April 2024. 
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword.

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N.B This was recorded on 11 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary
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This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss emerging markets (EM) and developments in eastern Europe. In EM, much of FX hinges on developments at the Fed with the US dollar. They discuss how China is setting the tone in balancing inflation with economic growth, and examine the idiosyncrasies of Polish policies.  
 
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NB: This was recorded on 4 April 2024. 
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This week's host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to focus on G10 currencies. In the UK, sterling weakened slightly thanks to dovish tones from the Bank of England while in the US, a bumpy road back to 2% inflation means market uncertainty over the dollar. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10 central bank to cut rates, and may have to handle imported inflation and a weaker franc. Meanwhile, Japan's increase in rates may not be the beginning of a grand hiking cycle, and a weakened yen suggests markets agree. Lastly, they discuss Norway and Swedish currencies, where it's krona vs krone.  

Currency Exchange is away for Good Friday but will return on 5 April.    
  
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NB: This was recorded on 21 March 2024. 
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