Several critical developments are pointing toward a rising cost of uncertainty across the logistics landscape. Analysts are trimming expectations for the back half of the year, with Morgan Stanley significantly cutting earnings per share estimates for most truckload and less-than-truckload carriers due to high shipper uncertainty and continuing industrial contraction..

A major regulatory shift occurred when the U.S. Court of Appeals overturned a key Federal Maritime Commission rule regarding detention and demurrage fees, a ruling analyzed in Demurrage dilemma: court overturns FMC's trucking rule. Specifically, the court found the FMC rule that categorically blocked demurrage charges against motor carriers to be "arbitrary and capricious," potentially opening the door for drayage carriers, who often lack leverage, to be billed for these terminal fees once again.

Equipment costs are set to rise after President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1st, as reported in Trump to impose 25% tariff on trucks starting Nov. 1. Since the U.S. imports the majority of these trucks from Mexico, the tariff could significantly raise the total cost of ownership for U.S. fleets, potentially slowing down equipment replacement cycles, even if vehicles nominally fall under the USMCA agreement.

North of the border, Canada Post is facing a severe labor crisis linked to its deep financial struggles, having incurred losses of $2.7 billion since 2018, leading to a crucial update in Canada Post reduces contract offer to striking workers, warns of job cuts. The postal operator rescinded a $500 to $1,000 signing bonus and is proposing to eliminate lifetime job security for urban employees while aiming to downsize the workforce through attrition, buyouts, and early retirement to facilitate needed modernization.

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