The Dismal Science

[0:42] Treasurer's good/bad debt speech

[1:00] Stephen on infrastructure debt

[2:16] Morrison's 2016 position

[3:43] Net operating vs net cash balance

[3:55] Jim Chalmers' Better Budgeting

[5:23] Operational vs capital budgets

[6:13] Stephen on 1Q17 CPI data

[6:24] RBA's inflation target

[9:12] RBA early adopter of inflation targeting

[9:20] NZ pioneers inflation targeting

[9:37] Gold standard

[9:39] Monetary policy regimes

[9:44] Milton Friedman's k-percent rule

[10:58] Nod to the monetarists

[15:40] Expansions don't die of old age

[15:55] Wage-price spiral

[16:20] Japanese deflation

[16:47] Deflation and the Depression

[17:13] Disinflation

[17:34] Quantitative easing

[17:55] Calculating CPI

[18:42] Include housing in CPI?

[21:29] Unexpected brief 2016 deflation

[21:35] RBA cut following deflation

[22:28] Underlying inflation still subdued

[23:15] Inflation target review

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This week Stephen and Ivan talk about making infrastructure sexy again, as well as the latest labour market data and the ongoing jobs/housing dilemma of the RBA.

Discussed in this episode:

[0:59] February jobs disaster

[1:11] Stephen on the March jobs numbers

[1:48] Jobs report sceptics

[2:35] 2014 ABS error

[3:42] April RBA minutes

[5:42] ANZ's job ads data

[5:54] NAB business survey

[7:03] Polling is getting harder

[9:08] Blueprint for Growth

[11:30] Snowy Mountains Scheme

[12:14] PM's Snowy reboot

[13:12] Keynesian stimulus

[13:17] Governor Lowe on infrastructure

[14:34] Grattan Institute on infrastructure

[14:59] Cost-benefit analysis

[15:02] NBN's lack of cost-benefit analysis

[15:13] NBN cost estimates

[15:33] Infrastructure Australia

[15:38] Infrastructure Australia priority list

[16:22] AICD's Director Sentiment Index

[18:02] South Australian energy crisis

[18:20] Elon Musk to the rescue

[20:12] Stephen on infrastructure borrowing

[21:27] 457 visas abolished

[22:57] University concerns

[23:09] Tech sector concerns

[23:43] Benefits of skilled migration

[24:02] Value to businesses

[24:23] Worrying protectionism

[24:46] Trump's H-1B visa executive order

[24:56] Budget countdown

[25:07] Register for Stephen's Budget webinar

This week Stephen and Ivan talk about the regulator crackdown on interest-only loans and the AICD's Blueprint for Growth, which outlines our national reform agenda.

Discussed in this episode:

[0:46] APRA interest-only loan crackdown

[0:57] RBA Governor's property warning

[1:14] Bank executive comments

[1:33] APRA's original 2014 restrictions

[3:44] RBA's April interest rate decision

[4:05] Council of Financial Regulators

[4:41] Glenn Stevens on 'crazy' house prices

[5:17] RBA turns downbeat

[5:27] Surprise jobless rate increase

[6:07] AICD's Blueprint for Growth

[7:06] AICD education programs

[7:37] Stephen on infrastructure

[7:50] Negative gearing escalation

[8:14] Morrison: "We have a spending problem."

[8:49] Morrison: "We have an earnings problem."

[9:14] 2016 budget spending GDP share

[14:07] Superannuation tax concessions cut

[14:12] SME company tax cuts

[14:22] Tax efficiency

[15:15] Regressive tax

[15:35] Land tax

[16:17] Milton Friedman on tax

[17:11] Australian current account deficits

[17:53] Negative gearing in 2016 election

[18:20] CGT discount introduced in 1999

[19:16] Government considering CGT changes

[19:30] Henry tax review

[21:58] Where Ivan misquotes Keynes

On this episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan talk Brexit and welcome their first guest, AICD Senior Policy Adviser Lysarne Pelling, who came in to discuss proposed safe harbour laws that could save companies from painful insolvencies.

Discussed in this episode:

[0:59] UK triggers article 50

[1:15] Stephen's reaction the day of the Brexit vote

[1:35] Maastricht Treaty

[2:09] >50% of UK trade is with the EU

[2:24] Gloomy forecasts for UK economy

[3:58] Requirement EU 27 unanimity

[4:11] Nationalist parties on the rise in Europe

[4:58] Impact on UK financial services

[9:55] Draft insolvency law reforms

[10:41] When does safe harbour apply?

[10:52] Severe penalties for insolvent trading

[12:27] Insolvency law in UK and Singapore

[13:24] Arrium administration's effect on Whyalla

[15:43] Distressed debt funds

[15:55] US Chapter 11 provision

[16:51] Productivity Commission on an Australian Chapter 11

[19:20] Email Lysarne your thoughts

[20:00] RBA cash rate

Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics

In this special episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan discuss the housing market. Is it a bubble? Should regulators be concerned? And what can we do to make housing more affordable?

Discussed in this episode:

[0:48] Avocado toast

[0:57] Housing affordability in the budget

[4:49] Australian household debt

[6:29] APRA concerns (paragraph 5)

[6:55] RBA's subtle shift on housing

[9:28] NINJA loans

[11:20] "Get a good job that pays good money."

[15:19] Superannuation housing plan under consideration?

[19:21] Sydney annual house appreciation

[19:59] Sydney's average house-to-income ratio (second only to Hong Kong)

Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics.

In the second episode of the AICD's new weekly economics podcast, Stephen and Ivan discuss the 'disaster' that was the February jobs numbers, Western Australia's economy post mining boom and the AICD's number of the week.

In the first episode of the AICD's new weekly economics podcast, Stephen and Ivan discuss the Reserve Bank's copy-and-paste interest rate decision, society's anxieties about the robot revolution and the AICD's number of the week.