Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles.

If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:

1. Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.
2. Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.
3. Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.