Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news it seems the absence of official US economic data isn't holding back financial market risk takers, and even the data that is available, none of it very positive, isn't restraining them either.

First in the US, consumer debt growth seems to have evaporated in August. They were expecting a 'normal' +US$12 bln expansion, better than last year's +US$9 bln rise. But they only got +US$0.3 bln and far below anticipations. It rose at the slowest pace in six months, held back by a decline in credit card balances. Even car loan growth slowed to a crawl. It is a notable cooling in household borrowing, consistent with the expectation survey we noted yesterday that reported worries about jobs and interest rates are on the rise.

US mortgage applications fell again last week, extending the big fall the previous week. This came even though mortgage interest rates also fell.

A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: the American labour market is losing steam. Many of these reports and surveys are private, for subscribers only, and so give a new advantage to a few. But even this data is still ignored by frothy markets.

There was a less-well supported US Treasury auction overnight for their ten year Note, and that delivered a median yield of 4.06% which was up from the 3.99% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Meanwhile the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting saw benchmark rate rise slightly, the US dollar halt its rise, and the S&P500 yawn.

In Japan, the Reuters Tankan business confidence survey came in quite positive again in September, although lower than for August which was unusually buoyant. Since April this survey has been quite positive.

In Taiwan, their September inflation rate fell to 1.25%, their lowest since March 2021 and down from 1.6% in August. It is also now well below their central bank's target of 2%.

In China, they return from holiday today and businesses and financial markets will re-open. By official accounts, the level of economic activity during this break was high.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14% and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at US$4053/oz, up +US$80 from yesterday and a new high. Silver is taking off again, now at US$49.50. (By the way its record high was just under US$51 in March 2011.)

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.8 USc, down another -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -30 bps at 88.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$123,124 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.