Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the global service sector is in reasonable shape, helping generate new impetus to the world's economy. Equity markets are rising the wave.

In China, their private Caixin services PMI brought some good solid news. It was little-changed in April from the expansion in March, but now the 16th straight month of expansion of services their services sector. This private survey reports a faster expansion than the official version. Of special note is that new business grew the most in nearly a year and the fastest since May 2023. Foreign sales rising the most in ten months.

According to the combined factory and services PMIs, the Eurozone expanded its fastest in a year in April. In fact their services expansion was faster than either China, Japan or the US. Their new business volumes rose for a second successive month and at the quickest pace since May last year.

Only India is expanding faster among the major global economies.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute monthly inflation monitor for April found an increase in monthly inflation, although annual inflation continues to decline. Annual changes in the cost of living also fell for most household types.

And Aussie job ads rose in April somewhat unexpectedly and halting a longish retreat. In fact they were almost +3% higher in the month from March. Better, the rise was broad-based, except for healthcare. However these levels are still -6.6% lower than a year ago, and as good as the recent rise was, in fact it is trending at a flat level.

All eyes will be on the RBA at 4:30pm today (NZT) and their monetary policy review. They have a history of occasionally acting differently to what markets expect so there is some market pricing tension about what they will come up with. The main 'risk' is that they will be more hawkish than expected, given their sticky inflation levels.

It is very noticeable that some key mineral prices are on the rise again. That includes zinc, nickel, tin, lead, aluminium, and copper. A rise in global demand is behind the broad recent increases. There are some tighter supply points too, as is usual in the transition.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49% and down -2 bps from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today up +US$24 from yesterday at US$2325/oz.

Oil prices have stayed down at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$83/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just over 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are softer at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.3 and and unchanged from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,094 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.