Commodities in a Deglobalizing World with Jeremy Shapiro

Commodities have been at the heart of globalization. Traders roamed freely and commodities priced to the marginal cost of production. Since the mid-2010s that started to change politics moved toward populism and nationalism and geopolitical competition heated it. Today, traders have to navigate a sanction minefield and the weaponization of the dollar.  Global trade is fragmenting into blocks. What does this mean for the sector, the talent and the dollar itself. Our guest is Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations and previously the senior advisor to the assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia at the U.S. Department of State and a fellow at the Brookings Institution

Commodity Indexes with Tim Kramer,  JC Kneale and Preston Peacock:

Commodity indexes have grown in popularity among institutional and private investors, tracking the prices of a diversified basket of commodities to generate returns and hedge inflation, with current allocations totaling over $1.6 trillion in assets. Despite their acceptance, many investors are unsure of how these complex indexes are constructed, how returns are generated, and who ultimately determines the commodities they comprise. Furthermore, the future of these indexes remains a topic of discussion. To gain a deeper understanding of these indexes, Tim Kramer, founder and CEO of CNIC Funds LLC, is joined by Preston Peacock, Senior Director of ICE Data Indices, and J.C. Kneale, Head of North American Power and Gas Markets for ICE, to discuss the history, evolution, construction, uses, and potential future of commodity market indices, including their new power index designed for the energy transition age.

1. Website: http://www.cnicfunds.com/
2. Bloomberg Tickers:
   1. ICECNPIS = ICE US Carbon Neutral Power Spot Return Index (returns on underlying electricity + carbon only)
   2. ICECNPIE = ICE US Carbon Neutral Power Excess Return Index (returns on spot + roll yield)
   3. ICECNPIT = ICE US Carbon Neutral Power Total Return Index (spot + roll + collateral yield)

Description 

A View From the Top with Saad Rahim

In this episode, Saad Rahim, Chief Economist of Trafigura, the global commodity trading house, joins us to give an overview on the current state of the commodities markets. China is open for business. OPEC is cutting production. Is Oil poised for a big rise? Are cyclical markets over...replaced by a more volatile, less efficient, price-spiking and unpredictable paradigm? Where will metals headed with continued supply constraints? Is Copper the ultimate transition metal and what does energy transition mean for the traders? 

Powering Heavy Industry with Manoli Yannaghas

Heavy industry accounts for one third of power consumption. Many leading industrials and miners have ambitious targets to reach net zero. While renewables deployment capture headlines, what about efficiency? What about demand management? In this episode we dive into how new technologies can help companies understand their power consumption and make significant savings through behavioral and process changes. Our guest is Manoli Yannaghas, founder and CEO of Voltvision. Manoli has spent 20 years managing operating mines and mineral exploration projects in Africa and South America. He has also acted as CEO of a publicly listed mining company, as well as founding a number of small fast-growth technology companies operating in the mining, energy and renewables space. There is currently an opportunity to invest in VoltVision’s Series A funding round. If you would like to know more, please email [email protected]

How long will the energy transition take? The challenges are underestimated. Energy consumption will continue to expand as emerging economies develop, and as new classes of technologies emerge (not least AI where its inherent power consumption is an order of magnitude more than conventional computing). The switch from fuels that are mainly liquids and gases to hardware-intensive technologies like wind, solar and batteries, requires enormous quantities of materials; the supply chains for which are already stretched. And if the energy transition is to be delayed, what should we be doing to prepare and are there other options than those being chased now ? Our guest is Mark Mills, author, investor, policy advisor and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Mark’s latest book is “The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s”

Hedge Funds & Commodities with Tor Svelland

In this episode, we return to hedge funds and their role in commodities for investors, market participants and talent. Why is money returning to hedge funds with commodities focus or exposure? What does it take to succeed in the volatile sector? What tools and experience do hedge fund traders need? And is there anything structural that means this time hedge funds will stay dedicated to the space? Our guest is Tor Svelland, commodity trader and founder of award-winning hedge fund Svelland Capital. 

The Pathways to Decarbonize Transportation with Michael Barnard

In this episode, we take the long view of decarbonizing transportation. How will cars, trucks, trains and planes move in 2050? Which technologies will win out and why for each of these modes? Which countries and companies will lead these wholesale revolutions and which bets look safest? What are the pathways available? What criteria can investors and participants use today to evaluate decisions? Our guest is Michael Barnard, decarbonization strategist, futurist and author..

In this special episode, I provide notes, quotes and my take away from the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. Starting the day Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, the conference was held against a backdrop of financial turmoil and geopolitical fractures. What do the leaders of the commodities sector see as the major opportunities and challenges, after a year of record profits and the sector itself becoming central to global strategic interests and energy transition. What are the price predictions and the nature of the trading environment for the rest of the year. This is one of the few events where the CEOs of all the trading houses meet and publicly discuss their role and views on the market. 

Decarbonization is crucial to tackling climate change. Yet, human history has been a story of increasing energy consumption and hydrocarbons unleashed global development. Today, hope and investment is pinned on a suite of alternatives, especially wind and solar. The economics work. However, do the energetics? Our guest has spent a decade looking at the energy return on investment (EROI) and his work and insight presents a stark contrast and challenge to our current direction. Adam Rozencwajg is Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, a commodities and natural resources fund with over 30 years of track record and holds a global following for their research (available here http://gorozen.com/)

Edward Chancellor, financial historian and journalist, returns in this special update to discuss the unfurling banking crisis. We discuss the common thread across the financial stresses around the world is rising interest rates to tackle inflation. Should central banks be intervening? What has the Fed done with SVB? Are the events with Credit Suisse and the US banks the start of a broader financial crisis? What does this mean for rates going forward? How can the world tackle its debt and what does it mean for commodities?