The Heat Pump Podcast

Want to win on trust, not price? Download our Trust Checklist and see exactly how top HVAC companies build authority and close higher-quality deals.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-trust-checklist

Go a click deeper with Chris Morin’s 15-Point HVAC System Design Audit to uncover gaps in your process and unlock greater efficiency.

👉 https://wkf.ms/3XyFp92

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If you’re serious about doing better work and staying ahead in high-performance contracting, the BPA National Home Performance Conference is the place to be. It’s happening April 13 – 16 in Columbus, Ohio, and it’s built around real lessons, practical strategies, and ideas you can actually use back on the job.

Use the discount code NHPC-HPP to save on registration.

👉 Register here: http://nhpc26.org/amply

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Chris Morin is the founder of HVAC Pro Blog, an ACCA system design instructor, and one of the few people in the industry who trains both contractors and building inspectors. In this episode, he makes a compelling case for why aggressive load calculations, code compliance, and building inspector relationships aren't just good building science — they're how you grow a more profitable business. We also dig into duct design fundamentals, the oversizing trap, and why "I never get callbacks" is the most dangerous metric in HVAC.

Expect to Learn

• Half of contractors aren't doing load calcs — and a significant share of the half that do aren't doing them accurately. An aggressive Manual J is the foundation for everything.
• "No callbacks" is a dangerous metric. The real measure of success is a maintenance customer who calls you back every season — and refers you to their neighbors.
• Building inspectors aren't the enemy. The contractors who build relationships with them and meet code requirements end up with less competition and higher margins.
• Oversizing for the coldest 1% of the year creates problems during the other 98%. Variable speed technology helps, but it doesn't fix bad design.
• System design isn't an overhead cost — it's a service you charge for that separates your proposal from the low bidder's guess.

Timestamps

[00:00] – Episode Teaser

[02:26] – Meet Chris Morin: Marine Vet to HVAC Pro

[07:25] – Lessons from Utility Programs: Good vs. Bad Contractors

[16:13] – Why Most Contractors Are Failing at Load Calcs

[22:17] – The Danger of “No Callback = Success”

[25:04] – Ductless Oversizing: A Growing Problem

[28:57] – Manual D and the Realities of Duct Design

[38:41] – Behind the Code: Working With Building Inspectors

[47:06] – Contractor vs. Inspector: Building a Municipal Monopoly

[50:38] – Design = Profit: Turning Standards into Sales

[53:34] – Free Resources & Chris’s Masterclass

Follow Chris Morin:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophermorinhvac/
• Residential Design Courses: https://hvacdesignsociety.freshlearn.com/
• Website (Company): https://www.hvacproblog.com/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/hvac-pro-blog/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/HVACMorin/
• YouTube (Company): https://www.youtube.com/@HVACProBlog

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Want to win on trust, not price? Download our Trust Checklist and see exactly how top HVAC companies build authority and close higher-quality deals.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-trust-checklist

If you’re serious about doing better work and staying ahead in high-performance contracting, the BPA National Home Performance Conference is the place to be. It’s happening April 13 – 16 in Columbus, Ohio, and it’s built around real lessons, practical strategies, and ideas you can actually use back on the job.

Use the discount code NHPC-HPP to save on registration.

👉 Register here: http://nhpc26.org/amply

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Scott Libby built Royal River Heat Pumps by doing the opposite of almost everything the industry recommends — one brand, one geography, no emergency calls, no private equity, and a 10-week waiting list. In this episode, Scott walks through his full playbook: how he identified his ideal customer, why he designed his sales process around a two-person site visit, and what he tells contractors who want to copy what he's built. If you've ever wondered whether you can win on quality alone, Scott is the proof.

Expect to Learn:

• Why Scott went from heat pump skeptic to full-time advocate
• How focusing on one brand and one product category unlocked growth
• The detailed two-person sales and load calculation process that builds trust
• Why slowing down the sales cycle can actually increase close rates
• How systems, training, and culture drive long-term profitability

Timestamps:

[00:00] – Introduction & Warm-up

[02:32] – Scott’s Background and Career Journey

[03:48] – Quitting His Job & Betting on Heat Pumps

[09:36] – Building Royal River from a Pickup Truck

[12:29] – Systems Thinking & Standard Operating Procedures

[17:02] – Leaving Money on The Table

[26:48] – Competing on Quality (Not Price)

[31:29] – The Two-Person Sales Process & Amply Load Calculations

[43:39] – The Training Process at Royal River

[54:21] – Advice for Contractors Wanting to Make the Shift

Follow Scott Libby:

• Email: [email protected]
• Website (Company): https://www.royalriverheatpumps.com/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/royalriverheatpumps/#
• Instagram (Company): http://instagram.com/royalriverheatpumps/
• YouTube (Company): http://www.youtube.com/@royalriverheatpumps7509

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Want to win on trust, not price? Download our Trust Checklist and see exactly how top HVAC companies build authority and close higher-quality deals.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-trust-checklist

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If you’re serious about doing better work and staying ahead in high-performance contracting, the BPA National Home Performance Conference is the place to be. It’s happening April 13 – 16 in Columbus, Ohio, and it’s built around real lessons, practical strategies, and ideas you can actually use back on the job.

Use the discount code NHPC-HPP to save on registration.

👉 Register here: http://nhpc26.org/amply

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Competition in HVAC is fiercer than ever — Stan in a Van, private equity roll-ups, and VC-backed startups that can generate a quote in 90 seconds. If you don't have a clear answer for why you're different, price becomes the only signal left.

In this episode, Ed Smith (co-founder of Amply Energy) breaks down the Heat Pump Business Model Matrix — four ways to compete as a contractor — and the Trust Checklist: a practical framework for winning on expertise and process instead of price.

You'll hear real stories from incredible contractors who've built businesses that don't need to be the cheapest in the room.

Key Learnings:

• There are four ways to compete as a contractor: price, speed, customization, and trust. Only trust is sustainable long-term for independent businesses.
• Expertise (building science knowledge, craftsmanship) and process (the customer journey, tools, procedures) are the two levers that get you there.
• The contractors who win without competing on price know exactly who their customer is — and who they're not.
• Marketing designed to filter out the wrong customers is a feature, not a bug.
• When a homeowner says you're more expensive, the best response is a question, not a defense.
• Download the Trust Checklist at amply.energy — pick one item and go after it.

Timestamps:

[00:00] - Introduction & Warm-up

[03:01] - Ed’s Journey with Amply

[07:48] - Competing Beyond Price

[09:06] - Expertise and Process

[16:20] - The Trust Checklist

[17:25] - Case Studies and Best Practices

[26:49] - Ideal Customer and Marketing 

[32:11] - Demo Website with Energy Circle

[36:28] - Slowing Down the Sales Process

[43:07] - The Importance of Charging for Expertise

[52:07] - Closing Remarks

Follow Katie Miller and BPA:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/katiearonoff/
• Website (Company): https://building-performance.org/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/buildingperformanceassociation/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/BuildingPerformanceAssociation/
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/buildingperformanceassociation/
• YouTube (Company): https://www.youtube.com/c/BuildingPerformanceAssociation
• X (Company): https://x.com/JoinBPA

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

If you’re serious about doing better work and staying ahead in high-performance contracting, the BPA National Home Performance Conference is the place to be. It’s happening April 13 – 16 in Columbus, Ohio, and it’s built around real lessons, practical strategies, and ideas you can actually use back on the job.

Use the discount code NHPC-HPP to save on registration.

👉 Register here: http://nhpc26.org/amply

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If you've ever had a question about Manual J, Manual S, or heat pump sizing, there's a good chance the answer ends with "and that's the way I see it."

Ed Janowiak is ACCA's Manager of HVAC Design Education, host of the legendary "Hey Ed" video series, and one of the most influential voices in HVAC system design. With 35 years in the trade — from installer to contractor to trainer — Ed has probably taught more contractors how to do HVAC design right than anyone in America.

In this episode, we flip the script and ask Ed the hard questions: Why do so many contractors skip load calculations? What's the most common Manual J mistake? And why does oversizing heat pumps for heating loads keep him up at night?

Ed doesn't hold back. He explains why "ballparking" system design is the same as accepting a ballpark payment, shares his non-negotiable line on latent performance ("you're dead to me"), and delivers a warning about the mold crisis heading for cold climate markets.

Whether you're new to heat pumps or a seasoned pro, this conversation will sharpen how you think about system design.

Key Topics

• Ed's journey from crawlspaces to becoming ACCA's top educator
• Why "truth and math" is the foundation of everything he teaches
• The #1 Manual J mistake contractors make (it's not what you think)
• Why Manual J doesn't care what equipment you're installing
• The oversizing crisis: what happens when you size heat pumps for heating
• Ed's line in the sand: 50% RH at 75°F on design day — or you're dead to him
• The ServPro warning: why mold problems are coming to cold climate markets
• What the new Manual S and Manual H mean for heat pump contractors

Timestamps:

[00:00] - Episode Teaser

[02:34] - Introduction to guest, Ed Janowiak

[05:56] - Ed talks about his journey into HVAC design and education

[10:52] - Discussing heat pump sizing and the impact on comfort

[14:15] - Ed’s perspective on airflow and its importance in system performance

[17:28] - Common mistakes HVAC contractors make

[23:19] - Manual J and heat pump sizing considerations

[28:27] - Ed explains common misconceptions about Manual J for heating

[30:38] - Properly sizing heat pumps and using auxiliary heat

[42:01] - Insights on technical committees and the importance of industry standards

[46:08] - The importance of Manual T for proper fan pressure and airflow

[49:37] - Closing remarks and key takeaways from the discussion

Follow Ed Janowiak:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-janowiak-9bb3b734/
• Website (Company): https://www.acca.org/home
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/accausa/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/accontractors
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/acca_usa/#
• X (Company): https://x.com/accausa
• YouTube (Company): http://www.youtube.com/@accamerica

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Want a sharper, more effective website?

From clearer messaging to smarter layout decisions — If you’ve ever felt your website could be doing more work for you, this is worth a look.

👉 Visit the demo site here: https://demo.energycircle.com/

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If you’re serious about doing better work and staying ahead in high-performance contracting, the BPA National Home Performance Conference is the place to be. It’s happening April 13 – 16 in Columbus, Ohio, and it’s built around real lessons, practical strategies, and ideas you can actually use back on the job.

Use the discount code NHPC-HPP to save on registration.

👉 Register here: http://nhpc26.org/amply

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In this episode of Heat Pump Podcast, host Ed Smith sits down with Peter Troast, Founder & CEO of Energy Circle, for a thorough analysis into one of the biggest challenges facing high-performance HVAC and home performance contractors today: how to clearly communicate their value to homeowners — before the first visit.

The conversation centers on a demonstration contractor website that Energy Circle and Amply built together as a “best-in-class” example for the industry. Rather than focusing on equipment or jargon, the site is designed to educate homeowners, filter for the right-fit customers, and showcase a diagnostic, process-driven approach that differentiates high-performance contractors from traditional “box-swap” HVAC companies.

Key Learnings:

• Why most high-performance contractors undersell themselves online, and how to fix it
• How to explain diagnostics, commissioning, and process without using building-science jargon
• How a website can act as a customer filter, not just a lead generator
• Why “problem → root cause → solution” framing can deliver higher value customers
• How to use testimonials, case studies, and owner stories to avoid competing on price

Timestamps:

[00:00] – Introduction

[03:56] – The "homeowners just don't know" problem

[08:22] – The homepage headline: We Listen. We Measure. We Fix. We Prove.

[12:57] – Is River City a good fit? Filtering customers on purpose

[19:48] – The Us vs. Them comparison chart

[26:50] – Testimonials that reinforce differentiation

[30:48] – Problems We Solve vs. Services navigation

[34:22] – The Our Process page

[37:05] – The About Us page and founder story

[41:28] – How to apply this to your own website

Follow Peter Troast:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/petertroast/
• Website (Company): https://www.energycircle.com/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-circle-llc/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/energycircle/
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/energycircle_/
• X (Company): https://x.com/energycircle

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Join us for our upcoming training! 

STOP COMPETING ON PRICE. WIN ON TRUST.

Too many contractors are stuck in a race to the bottom. 

The best ones aren't. The difference? A systematic approach to winning on trust.

Join us on Thursday, February 5th at 2pm ET for a live training with the Building Performance Association where we'll share our framework for building a standout business with healthy margins.

👉 Register here: https://info.amply.energy/bpa-win-on-trust-webinar

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In this episode of the Heat Pump Podcast, host Ed Smith, co-founder of Amply Energy , is joined by three innovators in the HVAC and heat pump space at the US Heat Pump Summit. Mark Kasdorf (Forge), Grant Gunnison (Zero Homes), and Evan Anderson (Pearl Edison) share their unique business models and approaches to accelerating the adoption of heat pumps.

Guest Introductions:

1. Mark Kasdorf - Founder & CEO of Forge. Mark brings a background in software development and an entrepreneurial approach to HVAC, focusing on high-quality heat pump installations with a heavy emphasis on training and technology integration.
2. Grant Gunnison - Founder & CEO of Zero Homes. With a background in general contracting and small satellites, Grant focuses on building a tech-forward home upgrade marketplace with a primary focus on heat pumps and energy efficiency.
3. Evan Anderson - Co-founder of Pearl Edison. Evan has a background in automated driving and focuses on supporting homeowners in energy efficiency and electrification retrofits through a network of high-performance contractors.

Key Takeaways:

• Every model dies if installs fail. All three CEOs — remote, hybrid, and in-person — built quality controls into their process. Cutting corners on design might win the sale, but callbacks and bad reviews will kill the business.
• Software can let junior salespeople do expert-level work. Forge uses embedded tools so 27-year-olds can run load calcs that would normally require a master electrician — and they're hitting revenue-per-salesperson numbers well above industry standard.
• Remote design works in some markets, not others. Forge tried it in New England and called it "a disaster." Zero Homes makes it work elsewhere. Experiment to see if it can cut down on your soft costs for acquiring a customer. 
• Ducted systems still need someone in the home. Evan Anderson is pessimistic — short, medium, and long-term — about getting airflow and static pressure data remotely. If you're touching ductwork, plan on a site visit.
• Utility and municipal partnerships can cut acquisition costs to near zero. All three companies get leads through partners instead of paying for Google ads.

Timestamps:

[03:44] – Introduction To The Panelists

[06:44] – Discussing Challenges And Their Solutions In The Hvac Industry

[14:20] – How Each Company Uses Technology To Improve Processes

[23:37] – Sales Process And Customer Engagement

[26:55] – Lead Qualification To Closing The Deal

[32:29] – Scaling The Businesses, and Conversion Rate Success

[39:04] – Discussion On Financing Options And Their Impact On Affordability

[47:17] – Closing Thoughts: Reflections On Electrification And The Future Of The Market

Connect with the Guests:

Mark Kasdorf

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markkasdorf/
• Website (Company): https://www.forgeco.com/

Grant Gunnison

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/grantgunnison/
• Website (Company): https://www.zerohomes.io/

Evan Anderson

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/evananderson313/
• Website: https://www.pearledison.com/

Check out The US Heat Pump Summit:

• Website: https://www.usheatpumpsummit.com/

Follow Brent Davidson:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brentdavidson/

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy

Like what you heard in this episode? We're doing a live training on exactly this.

STOP COMPETING ON PRICE. WIN ON TRUST.

Too many contractors are stuck in a race to the bottom. The best ones aren't. The difference? A systematic approach to winning on trust.

Join us on Thursday, February 5th at 2 PM ET for a live training with the Building Performance Association where we'll share our framework for building a standout business with healthy margins.

👉 Register here: https://info.amply.energy/bpa-win-on-trust-webinar

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What does it actually take to install millions of heat pumps? We asked the people who would know.

Lindsey Dorman (Carrier), Kevin DeMaster (LG), and Jonathan Moscatello (Daikin) work with utilities and rebate programs across the country. Their job: make heat pump adoption actually work for contractors, homeowners, and the grid.

We cover quality vs. volume tensions in rebate programs, the future of connected commissioning, why equipment data is still too hard to access, and what each would change with a magic wand.

This is the behind-the-scenes view of heat pump programs most contractors never see.

Key Takeaways:

• Why inverter-driven heat pumps are essential for future energy efficiency and grid stability.
• The importance of proper sizing, installation, and contractor training in heat pump success.
• How utility programs can avoid “heat pump cowboys” and perverse incentives.
• What “connected commissioning” is — and why it’s a game-changer for installation quality.
• The one policy change each guest would make to accelerate responsible heat pump adoption.

Timestamps:

[00:00] - Introduction to the Episode

[04:20] - Meet the Guests 

[05:13] - What Do You All Do? Guest Roles Explained

[11:19] - Where Heat Pumps Are Thriving and Where They're Fragile

[19:18] - What Makes a Good Utility Partner?

[24:54] - Tackling Heat Pump Incentive Abuse

[32:02] - Connected Commissioning: The Next Evolution

[37:32] - Data, Diagnostics & Manufacturer Feedback

[43:30] - The Case for Better Equipment Data Access

[51:12] - Magic Wand Question: One Change to Accelerate Adoption

[56:52] - Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up

Connect with the Guests:

Lindsey Dorman

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lindsey-dorman-142364117/
• Website (Company): https://www.corporate.carrier.com/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/carrier/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/CarrierGlobal/
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/carrier/
• X (Company): https://x.com/carrier

Jonathan Moscatello

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-moscatello-b5345346/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/daikin-comfort-technologies/

Kevin DeMaster

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-demaster-77647a/
• Website (Company): https://lghvac.com/
• LinkedIn (Company): https://www.linkedin.com/company/lg-air-conditioning-systems/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/lgusahvac
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/lghvacusa/#
• X (Company): https://x.com/LGHVACUSA

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Like what you heard in this episode? We're doing a live training on exactly this.

STOP COMPETING ON PRICE. WIN ON TRUST.

Too many contractors are stuck in a race to the bottom. The best ones aren't. The difference? A systematic approach to winning on trust.

Join us on Thursday, February 5th at 2pm ET for a live training with the Building Performance Association where we'll share our framework for building a standout business with healthy margins.

👉 Register here: https://info.amply.energy/bpa-win-on-trust-webinar

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Paul McHugh has been in HVAC for 35 years and handles 350 installs per year at Ray O. Cook Heating and Air in California. In this episode, he walks us through his complete 8-step sales process—from first contact through commissioning—including the $200 video he sends customers before every appointment.

What we cover:

• The comfort survey that protects you and surfaces real problems
• The 90-second pre-visit video (Paul plays it during the episode)
• Why Paul calls every customer before arriving
• "The Big Three": load calculation, duct assessment, equipment selection
• How to demonstrate airflow and pressure problems in front of homeowners
• Using extended performance data to select equipment
• Installation handoff documentation that ensures predictable results
• ACCA QI certification and third-party verification
• How to handle "you're more expensive" objections

Timestamps:

[00:00] – Introduction to the Episode

[03:11] – Paul's Career and Industry Evolution

[08:47] – Defining the Core Problem

[10:40] – How the Process Was Developed

[19:03] – The Comfort Survey: Understanding the Homeowner

[25:00] – Leveraging Technology and Customer Education

[30:10] – Initial Appointment: Setting the Stage

[36:34] – Load Calculation and Air Leakage Detection

[47:55] – Diagnosing Room-Level Comfort Issues

[55:52] – Equipment Selection Using Extended Performance Data

[01:02:31] – Commissioning and Final Thoughts

Follow Paul McHugh:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-mchugh-93830430/
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lespaulmac/
• Website (Company): https://www.rayocook.com/
• Facebook (Company): https://www.facebook.com/rayocook/
• Instagram (Company): https://www.instagram.com/rayocook1947/
• YouTube (Company): https://youtube.com/@rayocookheatingandair

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Want to win on trust, not price?

Start with our Trust Checklist to see if your business is doing the things that truly set you apart.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-business-model-matrix

Then, head to our latest article to learn how the top contractors protect their margins and stay competitive.

👉 http://info.amply.energy/blog/win-on-trust-the-heat-pump-business-model-matrix

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When leads are scarce, most HVAC contractors chase everything. Mitch Bailey does the opposite—and it's working.

The second-generation owner of Bailey's Air Heroes downsized from 50 employees to 12, turns down work that doesn't fit, and built a $3M business around one principle: test, don't guess.

Mitch just won the 2024 Jim Davis Technical Excellence Award from NCI. He trains contractors across California. And he's all-in on heat pumps—even when the economics are tricky.

In this episode, we dig into: 

→ Why he refused to budge $5 for a builder (and got fired for it) 

→ How he shifted from 3-6% margins to 30% by switching to “retail work” 

→ His "$2 high-tech selling tool" that closes engineer customers 

→ The balance point COP spreadsheet that shows when heat pumps pencil out 

→ Why he trains his competition (and why it's strategic) 

→ His advice: start with load calculations and static pressure testing

If you're wondering how to build a sustainable HVAC business without burning out, this one's for you.

Timestamps:

[00:00] - Introduction

[02:44] - Mitch’s Early HVAC Roots

[04:21] - Learning Through Experience & California’s Training Programs

[07:25] - Taking Over the Business & Embracing Technology

[19:49] - Transitioning from New Construction to Retrofit Work

[26:37] - Lessons from New Construction: Don’t Compete on Price

[33:47] - High-Performance Contracting in Practice

[44:13] - Economics of Heat Pumps vs Gas Furnaces

[55:45] - Advice for Contractors: Where to Start with Performance Work

Follow Mitchell Bailey:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitchell-bailey-b3887948/
• YouTube: https://youtube.com/@baileysair
• Email: [email protected]
• Website (Company): https://airheroes.org/company/

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/

Want to win on trust, not price?

Start with our Trust Checklist to see if your business is doing the things that truly set you apart.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-business-model-matrix

Then, head to our latest article to learn how the top contractors protect their margins and stay competitive.

👉 http://info.amply.energy/blog/win-on-trust-the-heat-pump-business-model-matrix

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Live from the U.S. Heat Pump Summit, the panel explores one of the most debated topics in the heat pump industry — real-world energy data versus modeled load calculations. With growing demand for heat pump adoption and improving installation practices, understanding how best to size systems is more critical than ever.

Moderated by Ross Trethewey, the session brings together three leading voices in building science and HVAC system design: Alex Meaney, Nate Adams, and Eric Fitz. Together, they debate the merits and limitations of load calculation methods—from the precision of Manual J to the practicality of energy bills and the gut-check of contractor “rules of thumb.” It's an honest, unscripted, and high-energy conversation aimed at bridging the gap between building science nerds and real-world contractors.

Key Takeaways:

• Every load calc is a model. Treat outputs as working estimates, not facts.
• Triangulate. Combine Manual J, past energy, and field observations. Watch where they agree.
• Respect air leakage. Inspect attics, listen for wind noise, ask about comfort. When red flags pile up, get a blower door.
• Question black-box tools. The less data they ask for, the more you should worry.
• Build feedback loops. Log runtimes, check design-day performance, and refine your assumptions over time.

Timestamps:

[00:00] - Episode Teaser

[02:17] - Intro by Ross Trethewey & guest intros

[03:22] - Nate on sizing via utility bills: "I can do it in 2 minutes"

[05:10] - Bridging the Adoption Gap

[09:16] - Alex defends Manual J: “It’s not that hard if you know your stuff”

[12:14] - How to assess infiltration without a blower door

[25:21] - Eric breaks down regression modeling using heating degree days

[34:36] - The Role of Human Behavior & Assumptions

[40:05] - The danger of outliers & the limits of AI-driven sizing tools

[52:51] - Triangulation: why using multiple methods is key

[59:06] - Final thoughts: pick a method, stick with it, and build your feedback loop

Connect with the Guests:

Alex Meaney

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-meaney-62a6a248/ 
• Website: https://www.meanhvac.com/ 
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/alex.meaney.35 

Nate Adams

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/natethehousewhisperer/ 
• Website: https://www.natethehousewhisperer.com/ 
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natethehousewhisperer/?igsh=bXNyeTAwNGkybWk4#

Ross Trethewey

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rosstrethewey/ 
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosstretheweytoh/ 
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/rosstrethewey/?hl=en 
• Twitter: https://x.com/rosstret 

Check out The US Heat Pump Summit:

• Website: https://www.usheatpumpsummit.com/

Follow Brent Davidson:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brentdavidson/
• Twitter: https://x.com/thebrentd

Follow the Hosts:

• Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
• Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
• Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
• Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
• Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/