The Institute of World Politics

This event is sponsored by the Asia Initiative Lecture Series at The Institute of World Politics.

About the lecture: In 1949, to the surprise of Americans who had hoped that WWII had marked the end of world conflicts, the Soviet Union exploded a nuclear weapon Identical to the bomb the US had dropped on Nagasaki. It was identical because the bomb’s nuclear technology had been stolen through massive espionage by America’s Russian communist wartime ally. Thus the calculus of power that overshadowed the new conflict—nuclear weapons and strategic intelligence operations– set the strategic framework of the fifty-year Cold War conflict.

Also in 1949, the People’s Republic of China began pursuing a similar hegemonic course, also relying on stolen nuclear weapons designs and strategic intelligence activities. Just as an aggressive Soviet Union was unwilling to accept either the American position as the world power or even peaceful standards of international behavior, so too does the PRC appear intent on replacing America as the sole remaining superpower in the twenty-first century.

The presentation will review key developments in these Chinese efforts and where US policy stands today at the current crossroads in US policy towards the PRC.

About the speaker: Kenneth E. deGraffenreid has over 40 years of leadership responsibility as a senior national level expert, practitioner, writer, and teacher in the areas of strategic defense and intelligence policy, and operations; counterintelligence and protective security; continuity of operations; and infrastructure, cyber, telecommunications and information protection.

He has served as Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive and Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs as White House Senior Director of Intelligence and Security Programs on the Ronald Reagan National Security Council. A retired Navy Captain, he also served on the Professional Staff of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. He has been a Senior Group VP of an R&D and systems engineering firm and VP of a high level policy analysis firm supporting sensitive USG programs in counterintelligence, telecommunications, and security. He is Professor Emeritus at IWP, a graduate school in Washington, D.C. where he developed and directed the first MA degree in Intelligence and security studies to be offered in the United States. Currently, he is a Distinguished Fellow in Intelligence Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council.

This event is sponsored by the Asia Initiative Lecture Series at The Institute of World Politics.

About the lecture: The United States of America has been the most powerful country in the world for over seventy years, but recently the U.S. National Security Strategy declared that the return of great power competition with Russia and China is the greatest threat to U.S. national security. Further, many analysts predict that America’s autocratic rivals will have at least some success in disrupting-and, in the longer term, possibly even displacing-U.S. global leadership.

Brilliant and engagingly written, The Return of Great Power Rivalry argues that this conventional wisdom is wrong. Drawing on an extraordinary range of historical evidence and the works of figures like Herodotus, Machiavelli, and Montesquieu and combining it with cutting-edge social science research, Matthew Kroenig advances the riveting argument that democracies tend to excel in great power rivalries. He contends that democracies actually have unique economic, diplomatic, and military advantages in long-run geopolitical competitions. He considers autocratic advantages as well, but shows that these are more than outweighed by their vulnerabilities. Kroenig then shows these arguments through the seven most important cases of democratic-versus-autocratic rivalries throughout history, from the ancient world to the Cold War. Finally, he analyzes the new era of great power rivalry among the United States, Russia, and China through the lens of the democratic advantage argument. By advancing a “hard-power” argument for democracy, Kroenig demonstrates that despite its many problems, the U.S. is better positioned to maintain a global leadership role than either Russia or China.

A vitally important book for anyone concerned about the future of global geopolitics, The Return of Great Power Rivalry provides both an innovative way of thinking about power in international politics and an optimistic assessment of the future of American global leadership.

About the speaker: Dr. Matthew Kroenig is the deputy director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council and the director of the Center’s Global Strategy Initiative. He is also a tenured professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. A 2019 study in Perspectives on Politics ranked him one of the top 25 most cited political scientists of his generation. He is the author or editor of seven books, including The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy versus Autocracy from the Ancient World to the US and China (Oxford University Press, 2020) and The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy (Oxford University Press, 2018). His articles and commentary have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politico, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and many other outlets. He co-authors the bi-monthly “Its Debatable” column at Foreign Policy. Dr. Kroenig provides regular commentary for major media outlets, including PBS, NPR, BBC, CNN, and C-SPAN.

He previously served in several positions in the US government, including in the Strategy office in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Strategic Assessments Group at the Central Intelligence Agency. He regularly consults with a range of US government entities. He has previously worked as a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a research fellow at Harvard University and Stanford University. His work has been supported by the National Science Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Hertog Foundation, and the Stanton Foundation. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations and holds an MA and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California at Berkeley.

This event is part of The Intermarium Lecture Series sponsored by The Institute of World Politics.

About the lecture: The defensibility of the Baltic states has been a subject of much discussion since the Russian invasion and occupation of parts of Ukraine. A 2016 report by the RAND Corporation caused a stir when it determined that NATO was unprepared to defend the Baltics against a Russian attack, with Russian forces able to reach the outskirts of Tallinn in 60 hours. However, while American strategic thinking is focused on conventional military defense, due to its size, geography, and history, Estonia’s National Security Concept embraces a “total defense” principle. This is important for U.S. strategic thinkers and policymakers to understand and integrate into allied defense strategy and assistance.

About the speaker: James A. Rice is the Legislative Director for U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, for whom he has worked since June 2000. In this role, James serves as the chief advisor to Senator Grassley on foreign policy matters, including in Senator Grassley’s capacity as co-chair of the Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus. James’s previous professional experience includes positions in the Iowa Senate, an internship with the British Conservative Party, and work on various political campaigns. James has been recognized by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for his contributions to public diplomacy. James received a B.A. from Drake University with majors in political science and history and a M.A. in Statecraft and International Affairs at the Institute of World Politics. He is a native of Davenport, Iowa.

This event is sponsored by the Asia Initiative Lecture Series at The Institute of World Politics.

About the lecture: Since their 1949 victory, the Chinese Communist Party has been highly successful in making mainland China a very hard target for foreign espionage. But hitherto, China’s security and intelligence agencies have often endured a lack of interagency coordination, turf battles, and internal corruption. Under Mao Zedong, they were attacked and dismantled during the Cultural Revolution, taking decades to recover. During China’s corruption crisis of the 1990s and 2000s, intelligence and counterintelligence operations were hobbled by internal graft, leading to high-level penetrations by the CIA’s China Program.

However, Xi Jinping has systematically attacked these problems since his ascent in 2012. His famous anti-corruption drive was partly intended to blunt alleged American efforts to provide cash for their agents within the Chinese state to secure corrupt promotions. Beijing’s drive to regain “information dominance” (制信息权, zhi xinxi quan) over an increasingly fluid, networked, and technologically sophisticated society appears to be broadly successful. Interagency coordination looks more robust under strengthened party oversight by the new Central State Security Commission. Meanwhile, an intelligence and military reorganization that was launched in 2015 has resulted in a sharper mission focus by the Ministry of State Security and the intelligence units of the People’s Liberation Army.

This presentation will review these efforts, and what problems still exist. It will evaluate the possibility that the 2020s will be a decade of better coordinated and more aggressive espionage operations by Beijing, and the extent to which the increasingly successful surveillance state might expand and grow ever stronger inside China.

About the speaker: Dr. Matthew Brazil is the researcher and writer. He pursued Chinese studies as an undergraduate at U.C. Berkeley, as an Army officer with tours in Korea and NSA, and as a graduate student at Harvard in their Regional Studies East Asia program. After a stint as the China specialist for the Commerce Department’s Office of Export Enforcement, he was assigned as a Commercial Officer with the U.S. Embassy, Beijing, where he both promoted and controlled U.S. high technology exports to China. Afterward, Matt spent 20 years as a security professional, performing investigations in China for a chip manufacturer, and leading the development of a security organization in China for an American specialty chemicals firm. His PhD dissertation at the University of Sydney (2013) described the place in the Chinese Communist Party of their intelligence organs. That and further research led to his contribution as the coauthor of Chinese Communist Espionage, An Intelligence Primer (2019). Matt has begun research on a second book intended to be an integrated narrative history of intelligence operations in the Chinese Communist movement.

About the lecture: Ethiopia today is at a crossroad, the government of Ethiopia recently launched a campaign to uphold the rule of law in order to keep the peace and security of its citizens. The government is also gearing up to conduct its first election in the Post-TPLF era in June 2021. All eyes will be on the reformist leader Abiy Ahmed, a 2019 Nobel peace prize laureate who promised to bring his nation of over a hundred million people back to its historical prominence by unlocking the country’s untapped natural resources.

Our panelist will analyze the challenges facing the Prime Minister as he embarks on his goal to achieve making Ethiopia a middle-income nation by 2025. One of these challenges currently is the conflict between the federal government of Ethiopia and TPLF leadership in Tigray.

About the panelist:

Dr. Gedion Timothewos Hessebon, is the current attorney general of Ethiopia.

Bronwyn Bruton, a democracy and governance specialist with extensive experience in Africa was a 2008-2009 international affairs fellow in residence at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Ms. Bruton has also served as a program manager on the Africa team of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of Transition Initiatives, as a policy analyst on the international affairs and trade team of the Government Accountability Office, and as a program officer at the Center for International Private Enterprise.

Yoseph Mulugeta Badwaza is the Senior Regional Advisor at Freedom House, having formerly served as the Senior Program Officer for Ethiopia.

Besu Feleke has been a human rights and democracy advocate for 18 years. He is on the board of Friends of Angola, PRO Leadership Inc, Global Innovation Network, Senior Policy Advisor at Solidarity Movement for New Ethiopia, and Community Advisor to the Chief of Police in Alexandria, Virginia. Besu works in various Peacebuilding initiatives and programs in the US and Africa.

Professor Jon Abbink is an anthropologist-historian and carries out research on the history and cultures of the Horn of Africa (Northeast Africa), particularly Ethiopia.

Learn more about the panelists: https://www.iwp.edu/events/38022/.

This event is part of the Intermarium Lecture Series sponsored by The Institute of World Politics.

About the lecture: The book Children of the Borderlands, by Lucyna Kulinska Ph.D., is not just a collection of eyewitness accounts of people who survived the savage genocide of the Polish population committed by Ukrainians, but is also a case study relevant to the multi-ethnic United States that faces numerous ethnic tensions, pressures, and challenges. It illustrates the involvement of numerous intelligence services in this genocide and the creation of the present Ukrainian state and its identity.

About the speaker: Paul Szymanski is a naturalized citizen of the United States. He was born in Gdansk and immigrated from Poland in 1989. He graduated from the Loyola University of Chicago in 1995 and obtained a Bachelor of Business Administration. He works as a Cybersecurity Engineer and is certified as a Project Management Professional. Mr. Szymanski translated short stories by renowned American climber, John Long, into Polish and published them in the book titled Opowiesci z Krainy Largo (The stories from Laro’s world). This translation was a part of a project to obtain a new helicopter for the Tarta’s Mountain Rescue Squad. (The previous helicopter crashed during a rescue of high school students who unfortunately perished in an avalanche.) The book Children of the Borderlands was his first translation from Polish to English. He translated it with Jakub Zarazka and the poems were translated by Sister Jadwiga Szczechowicz from the Albertine Sisters convent. Sister Jadwiga is a former sergeant of the US Marine Corps. Mr. Szymanski enjoys rock climbing, mountaineering, skiing, scuba diving, and has completed four half-ironman triathlons.

About the lecture: Jack Sacco’s presentation (based on his award-winning book, Where the Birds Never Sing), details his father’s heroic journey through the greatest battles of World War II with a special focus on the liberation of Dachau. His testimony bears witness to the truth of the Holocaust while honoring both the victims and liberators.

About the speaker: Jack Sacco is the award-winning and Amazon #1 bestselling author of Where the Birds Never Sing and Above the Treetops. Originally from Birmingham, Alabama, he earned a degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Notre Dame. He is the winner of the Alabama Library Association’s 2005 Author Award for Where the Birds Never Sing. Past winners of this prestigious award include Harper Lee for To Kill a Mockingbird and Walker Percy for The Second Coming. Where the Birds Never Sing, published by HarperCollins, is a nonfiction account of his father Joe Sacco’s experiences during the Second World War, including his part in the liberation of the notorious Nazi concentration camp at Dachau.

The book has been praised by critics and readers alike, including Senator Bob Dole, who contributed the Foreword. In addition, scholars of the Holocaust have been enthusiastic in their praise. Where the Birds Never Sing has been endorsed by Rabbi Abraham Cooper on behalf of the Simon Wiesenthal Center and the Museum of Tolerance in Los Angeles. Where the Birds Never Sing was nominated for the 2004 Pulitzer Prize and rose to become an Amazon #1 Bestseller.

Jack Sacco is in demand as an accomplished public speaker who lectures widely throughout the United States and abroad. He has lectured at Yale University, the University of Notre Dame, the University of Southern California, UCLA, Loyola Marymount University, the University of Texas, and George Mason University, as well as other colleges and conferences throughout the nation. He has been chosen to deliver the keynote presentation at the National World War II Museum in New Orleans to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Dachau. He was also chosen to give a special presentation before the Royal Families of Europe, including the Habsburg, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein families.

About the lecture: Most politically active Poles welcomed the outbreak of the Great War as a chance to regain independence for their nation. Polish politicians and their followers were deeply divided among themselves. There were several orientations among them vying for influence. "Russian" Poles were pro-Western and counted on the victory of the Entente and sovereignty at best, or autonomy at worst. "Austrian" Poles pursued an "Austro-Polish solution," hoping that Vienna would unite all Polish lands under the scepter of the Habsburgs. Yet, the Austro-Hungarians increasingly yielded to Prussian prerogatives. Berlin at most entertained an idea of a dwarf Polish puppet state in the central provinces of Poland. Notwithstanding, the Poles raised several armed forces by the sides of the Russian, Austrian, and, lastly, Prussian armies. Meanwhile, emigre Poles, in particular in the United States supported the pro-Entente orientation. They also fielded the largest Polish force in the field which fought first in France and then, from 1919, in Poland itself. As the empires collapsed, it was both the diplomatic effort of the Poles in the West and the valor of Polish arms at home that facilitated the resurrection and defense of the Commonwealth. Ultimately, although they enjoyed some material assistance from the United States, France, and Hungary, it was the valor of Polish arms alone that secured the reborn nation's freedom.

About the speaker: Dr. Marek Chodakiewicz currently serves as a Professor of History at The Institute of World Politics, where he holds the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies. He also leads IWP’s Center for Intermarium Studies. At IWP, Dr. Chodakiewicz teaches courses on Contemporary Politics and Diplomacy, Geography and Strategy, Mass Murder Prevention in Failed and Failing States, and Russian Politics and Foreign Policy.

He was formerly an assistant professor of history of the Kosciuszko Chair in Polish Studies at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. He also served as a visiting professor of history at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

About the lecture: It took Poland 123 years to regain its independence in 1918. Since 1772 each generation witnessed lost wars, uprisings, conspiracies, and defeats. Each new generation would continue the struggle afresh. And so it was again in 1905 and between 1914 and 1921. The Poles fought to restore the Old Commonwealth of Poland-Lithuania-Ruthenia. They benefitted from the collapse of the three empires: Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary; however, they also had to contend with folk nationalism of the non-historic nationalities, peasant nations of the Intermarium, who asserted their rights to self-determination. Warsaw was thus forced to fight several border wars, including against Germany. But it was the war against the Soviet Union that proved to be the most existential challenge not just to Poland, but to everyone else in the Intermarium. Unfortunately, the Bolshevik menace failed to unite the successor states and the Poles faced Lenin's legions virtually alone.

About the speaker: Dr. Marek Chodakiewicz currently serves as a Professor of History at The Institute of World Politics, where he holds the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies. He also leads IWP’s Center for Intermarium Studies. At IWP, Dr. Chodakiewicz teaches courses on Contemporary Politics and Diplomacy, Geography and Strategy, Mass Murder Prevention in Failed and Failing States, and Russian Politics and Foreign Policy.

He was formerly an assistant professor of history of the Kosciuszko Chair in Polish Studies at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. He also served as a visiting professor of history at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

About the lecture: The autocratic system's inefficiencies, Russia's economic backwardness, the opposition's maximalist dissatisfaction, ghoulish slaughter at the front, and food supply failures combined to trigger a revolution in the empire in February 1917. The tsar abdicated and his regime yielded to a dual power system: the center-left provisional government and the leftist revolutionary Soviet. The new arrangement led to the paralysis of the country and the collapse of law and order. Deserters and bandits, along with the peasants, wreaked havoc from below; revolutionary parties fostered anarchy from above. Eventually, after October 1917, when the Bolsheviks seized power, deposing the liberals, chaos was further exacerbated by Lenin's government fostering Red Terror as state policy. In the ensuing Civil War, all possible political orientations raged against one another and against innocent bystanders. Everyone was caught in mayhem and violence, in particular helpless civilians, including traditional elites and Jews.

About the speaker: Dr. Marek Chodakiewicz currently serves as a Professor of History at The Institute of World Politics, where he holds the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies. He also leads IWP’s Center for Intermarium Studies. At IWP, Dr. Chodakiewicz teaches courses on Contemporary Politics and Diplomacy, Geography and Strategy, Mass Murder Prevention in Failed and Failing States, and Russian Politics and Foreign Policy.

He was formerly an assistant professor of history of the Kosciuszko Chair in Polish Studies at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. He also served as a visiting professor of history at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.